|Day's range||0.663 - 0.663|
|52-week range||0.6611 - 0.7206|
The Australian dollar had a rough week, breaking down below the recent lows, reaching towards the 0.66 handle. However, the market looks as if it is trying to finish the week with a little bit of a bounce, which should only offer more opportunities.
The Australian dollar has rallied after initially falling during the day on Friday, as traders are starting to do a bit of short cover trading going into the weekend.
Private sector PMI numbers put the majors in focus later today. Expect plenty of volatility as risk appetite takes another hit.
The Australian dollar continues to fall apart, showing signs of weakness going forward. The market as well below the 0.67 handle, so therefore it makes sense that we continue towards the bottom of the overall consolidation area.
The AUD/USD is likely to remain under pressure on Thursday as traders continue to price in a future RBA rate cut.
Simply stated, if unemployment continues to rise, interest rates will fall again. Today’s figures are unlikely to prompt the RBA to cut rates in March. However, the unemployment rate is expected to continue to rise so a near-term future rate cut seems to be inevitable.
It’s a busy day ahead. With the Dollar sitting on top, today’s stats from the EU are going to need to impress to eat into the Dollar’s current week gains.
While it’s a bullish start to the day, a number of the majors have seen their early gains erode. That could test the majors later in the day.
The Australian Dollar could rally on Thursday if the monthly employment data beats the estimates as it would further encourage investors to unwind RBA interest rate cut expectations. However, gains could be limited because of increasing concerns over the economic damage from the coronavirus outbreak.
The Australian dollar initially tried to rally during the trading session on Wednesday but gave back the gains at the 0.67 level. Quite frankly, this market is struggling due to a whole host of reasons, and therefore although I believe it is trying to build some type of base, it’s very unlikely to be able to rally significantly in the short term.
Based on the early price action and the current price at .6702, the direction of the AUD/USD the rest of the session on Wednesday is likely to be determined by trader reaction to the pivot at .6706 and an uptrending Gann angle at .6702.
It’s a busy day ahead, with inflation figures out of Canada, the UK, and the U.S, and the FOMC Meeting Minutes in focus…
The minutes also showed RBA policymakers expect the coronavirus outbreak to “subtract from growth in exports over the first half of 2020.”
Market risk appetite wanes following Apple’s profit warning. Apple is unlikely to be alone and that doesn’t bode well as COVID-19 cases continue to rise.
During the trading session on Monday, the Australian dollar initially tried to rally but we continue to see bearish pressure just above pushing this pair back down. That being said, it was Presidents’ Day in the United States, so trading was a bit thin during that timeframe.
Based on the early price action and the current price at .6725, the direction of the AUD/USD the rest of the session on Monday is likely to be determined by trader reaction to the uptrending Gann angle at .6722.
The US market is closed for Presidents Day, so in the absence of an unexpected headline shock action could be a bit muted as it typically is during a US holiday weekend.
The week will feature the RBA Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes and the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) Meeting Minutes. In my opinion, the focus for traders will be on how seriously policymakers discussed the potential economic impact of the corona virus on their respective economies.
Trader reaction to the two 50% levels at .6706 and .6718 will tell us if the counter-trend buying is getting stronger, or the selling pressure persists.