|Day's range||1.037 - 1.041|
|52-week range||1.0365 - 1.1197|
The economic calendar for the current week remained relatively quiet with a couple of monetary policy decisions from Reserve Bank of Australia and Bank of England.
On many instruments, last week ended with interesting trading signals, mostly thanks to the Thursday’s flash crash on Yen. In today’s piece, we will focus on the EURAUD, which is having a very interesting setup, especially for the retail traders, like this one, is the counter trend trading opportunity. It is a beautiful shooting star, with a very long head.
While three-week long descending trend-line continue restricting AUDUSD’s near-term upside, the pair has to close beneath 0.7020 in order to please sellers with fresh lows. In doing so, the quote can drop to 0.7000 round-figure and then to the 0.6930-25 support-zone ahead of aiming 61.8% FE level of 0.6900. Alternatively, the 0.7085 is likely immediate resistances for the pair prior to confronting the 0.7115 TL barrier, breaking which 0.7160 and 50-day SMA level of 0.7190 may come back on the chart. Moreover, pair’s sustained trading beyond 0.7190 could flash 0.7235-40 and the 0. ...
While inability to sustain 200-day SMA dragged NZDUSD to five-week low, 50-day SMA & short-term ascending support-line presently restricts the pair’s further downside around 0.6730-20. Should the pair registers a daily closing beneath the 0.6720, the 0.6700 and 100-day SMA level of 0.6665 might entertain sellers before pleasing them with 0.6600 mark. On the contrary, 0.6820 and the 0.6835, comprising 200-day SMA, seem nearby resistances for the pair to clear, breaking which the 0.6850, the 0.6880 and the 0.6900 can play their roles. However, the 0.6965-75 and the 0. ...
AUD starts this week on the back foot. From the technical point of view, the drop is supported by the Head and Shoulders formation and by the breakout of the lower line of the symmetric triangle pattern. Some may see an additional Head and Shoulders pattern, which only adds to the bearish sentiment here.
This pair has recently been following the technical protocol with great accuracy, so it provides us with a very interesting occasion. Price action principles have been dominant here over the past few months. It all started with the Head & Shoulders pattern during the summer.
Considering AUDUSD’s dip beneath a month-old ascending trend-line, the pair is likely to visit the 0.7180 support but the 0.7150 horizontal-stop could confine its further downside. In case there prevails additional weakness on the part of the pair past-0.7150, the 0.7120 and the 0.7050 seem crucial rest-points to watch as break of which highlights the 0.7020 and the 0.7000 come-back. On the upside, the 0.7240 and the 0.7260 can restrict the pair’s near-term advances ahead of fueling it to 0.7275-80 region. Moreover, successful break of 0.7280 may escalate the recovery to the 0. ...
All setups from the yesterday’s Trading Sniper video were spot on. EURNZD also went down breaking the lower line of the rectangle pattern. AUDNZD broke the lower line of the symmetric triangle pattern.
The NZDUSD pair is now trading in the bearish channel, but it looks ready to breach above the upper line. The first target for the long position could be at 0.67, although the pair will probably fight a bit at the 100-day moving average.
It’s early to talk about the strengthening of the AUD because up to now, there are no crucial fundamental factors that may become drivers for the Australian currency. Let’s go through all the factors that can be a market mover for the Australian Dollar.
Last week, DAX broke the long-term neckline of the major head and shoulders pattern. This week starts with a pull-back, which is nothing surprising as this is a typical price action movement. Any bearish price action there will give us a legitimate signal to go short.
AUDUSD’s recovery from 0.7080 region may find it hard to prevail for long as not only 0.7235-40 horizontal-area but the descending TL figure of 0.7265 could also challenge the Aussie buyers. If the pair manage to surpass 0.7265 trend-line barrier, the 0.7320 and the 0.7355 can come back on the chart whereas 0.7370 and the 0.7410 might please the Bulls afterwards. Alternatively, the 0.7165 and the 0.7130 can offer immediate supports to the pair during its pullback before highlighting the 0.7080 mark for sellers. In case the quote continue declining past-0.7080, the 61.8% FE level of 0. ...
Having taken a U-turn from 0.6720-25 resistance-confluence, NZDUSD highlights the importance of a week-long ascending trend-line, at 0.6655, which if broken can further fetch the quote to the 0.6640 and the 0.6610 supports. Given the pair’s additional downturn beneath 0.6610, the 0.6570 and the 0.6545 can entertain sellers. Alternatively, an upside break of 0.6725 can quickly propel the pair to 0.6765 and then to the 0.6800 resistance-mark. Also, pair’s successful advances past-0.6800 can confront the 0.6830 and the 0.6860 north-side barriers.NZD/JPY
Notwithstanding the AUDUSD’s sustained trading above a fortnight long ascending trend-line, the pair can’t be termed strong as immediate downward slanting TL, at 0.7455, followed by the 0.7480-85 horizontal-region, still stand tall to challenge the buyers. In case the pair surpasses the 0.7485, the 0.7500 may offer an intermediate halt during its rally to 0.7555 resistance-level. On the contrary, dip below the 0.7395 support-line can drag prices to the 0.7360 and the 0.7320 numbers. Though. pair’s additional weakness past-0.7320 might not respect the July-month low around 0. ...
Should Bears refrain to respect the 0.7255 mark, the medium-term descending trend-line, at 0.7145, and the 100% FE level of 0.7115 might not hesitate to appear on the chart. AUDJPY presently struggles with three-week old ascending trend-line, at 81.95, break of which can further drag the quote to 81.60 and the 81.25 supports. Meanwhile, the 82.20, the 82.55 and the 82.80 can confine the pair’s nearby upside, which if cleared may escalate the recovery in direction to the 83.00 horizontal-line, the 83.20 and the 83.55 number that accompanies more than a month long descending trend-line.
While six-week long descending trend-line continue restricting the AUDUSD’s near-term upside, the pair has to sustain its dip beneath the 0.7340 horizontal-support in order to revisit the recent low around 0.7310. In case the pair continue declining below 0.7310, the 61.8% FE level of 0.7255 could please the sellers. On the upside, a clear break of 0.7420 TL can trigger the pair’s recovery towards 0.7475-80 region, which if conquered could escalate the rise to 0.7510 and the 0.7550 resistances. Assuming that Bulls keep fueling the quote beyond 0.7550, the 0.7605, the 0. ...
New Zealand will be releasing its quarterly CPI later tonight. Forecasts point to a 0.5% increase in inflation during the second quarter. The New Zealand Dollar gained 0.07% on Monday morning, trading at 0.6772.
With an upward slanting trend-channel portraying the GBPAUD’s strength, the pair is likely to maintain its gradual advances in direction to the 1.8000 round-figure, with 1.7960 being immediate resistance to watch. Should prices rally beyond 1.8000, the 1.8015, the 1.8085-90 horizontal-barrier and the 1.8115, comprising channel’s upper-line, may grab market attention.
With four-month old descending trend-line restricting AUDUSD’s upside, the pair had no choice but to dip towards immediate TL support, at 0.7515 now, break of which could further drag it to 0.7470 & 0.7445 rest-points. In case if the pair continues declining below 0.7445, the 0.7410 may act as a halt during its plunge to 61.8% FE level of 0.7320. On the upside, the 0.7610 and the 0.7660, comprising aforementioned resistance-line, could limit the pair’s near-term advances, clearing which 0.7700 & 200-day SMA level of 0.7745 may gain traders’ attention. ...
Failure to surpass 0.7050-60 resistance-region during its recent rally couldn’t stop the NZDUSD from it’s another attempt to conquer the same barrier on Thursday, which if broken on a D1 closing basis could propel the pair towards 50-day SMA level of 0.7085 and then to the 0.7100 round-figure. If 0.7050-60 continue restricting the pair’s up-moves, the 0.7020, the 0.7000 and the 0.6975 are likely immediate supports to observe before highlighting the 0.6950-45 zone to look for the sellers. Alike NZDUSD, the EURNZD also struggles with near-term important resistance, here it is 1.6780-85 area, break of which becomes necessary for the pair to aim for 1.6825 and the 1.6880-90.
Having registered repeated bounces off the 0.6880-85 support-zone, the NZDUSD finally managed to clear the 0.7000 barrier; however, it isn’t a strong signal for the pair’s rally as 0.7030, 0.7055 and the 0.7095-0.7100 hurdles are still to conquer. Should prices surpass 0.7100 resistance-mark, the 0.7130, the 0.7160 and the 0.7200 can please the Kiwi optimists. On the contrary, pullback below 0.7000 can again drag the pair to 0.6960, 0.6935 and 0.6900 supports before highlighting the 0.6885-80 rest-area. Assuming the pair’s trading beneath the 0. ...
The AUD is going down again after taking a short break. The RBA meeting minutes did not affect the currency very much, as everything was quite clear beforehand. The Chinese stats were, on the contrary, very influential.
Due to diverging RBNZ and RBA monetary policies, the AUD/NZD has formed a strong uptrend breakout above the order block / MH3 confluence. Technically, if the price retraces to 1.0750-75 we should see another bounce towards 1.0876. However, another close above 1.0876 should provide a continuation towards 1.0926 and 1.0944. Around 1.0950 we might see short sellers coming as the M H5 is the strongest monthly resistance. Until then, buying the dip is the option.