|Day's range||2,904.51 - 2,939.08|
|52-week range||2,346.58 - 3,027.98|
Kansas City Fed President Esther George said it is "too soon" to judge the impact of tariffs on the U.S. economy, saying she would like to see more data ahead of the next policy-setting meeting on September 18.
Amid pessimism, retailers such as Target, Walmart, Costco, and Lowe’s are putting up stellar performances. Is Trump right to dismiss recession concerns?
Based on the early price action and the current price at 2924.25, the direction of the September E-mini S&P; 500 Index on Thursday is likely to be determined by trader reaction to the short-term Fibonacci level at 2932.50.
Investing.com – Wall Street rose on Thursday after more strong earnings from retailers continued to underscore that the U.S. consumer remains resilient.
Investors treated the Fed minutes as a non-event, choosing instead to shift their focus on Powell’s speech at Jackson Hole on Friday. The muted price action in all the final markets indicates some investor indecision and impending volatility. In other words, investors are keeping their powder dry.
(Bloomberg) -- U.S. stocks dropped after Federal Reserve officials cast doubt on further interest-rate cuts and as traders assessed economic data. Treasuries fluctuated.An early advance in the S&P 500 Index began to lose steam after a report showed that lackluster global demand and persistent trade tension led to the first contraction in U.S. factory activity since September 2009. Equities erased gains shortly after as Philadelphia Federal Reserve President Patrick Harker told CNBC that he’s “on hold” right now for further monetary easing. His comments were in line with those of Kansas City counterpart Esther George, who said the U.S. doesn’t need lower rates.Read: Fed’s Regional Presidents Lining Up Against Additional Rate CutsEuro-area government bonds slumped as the European Central Bank expressed concern that investors were losing faith in its ability to revive inflation and after a measure of German manufacturers reinforced recession concern. The British pound jumped as investors seized on hints from European leaders that a Brexit deal could still be reached.Financial markets have been whipsawed amid concern over economic weakness, the path of interest rates and renewed U.S.-China trade tension. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell could provide more guidance on policy when he speaks on Friday in Jackson Hole, Wyoming. Investors have fully priced a quarter percentage-point rate cut next month, but dissenting Fed voices may limit the prospects for the larger move that some have advocated, including President Donald Trump.“It’s just been news driven primarily based on trade wars and the Fed,” said Ed Clissold, chief U.S. strategist at Venice, Florida-based Ned Davis Research Inc. “Fundamentally there’s not a lot going on. Earnings growth has been pretty anemic, economic growth has not been strong. In the vacuum of good fundamentals, the market’s just been held to the whims of the news flow.”Here are some notable events coming up:Kansas City Federal Reserve Bank hosts its annual central banking symposium in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, starting Thursday.Here are the main moves in markets:StocksThe S&P 500 lost 0.3% to 2,915.40 as of 11:53 a.m. New York time.The Stoxx Europe 600 Index dipped 0.4%.The MSCI Asia Pacific Index fell 0.4%.CurrenciesThe Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index dipped 0.1%.The euro was little changed at $1.1089.The British pound increased 1% to $1.2249.The Japanese yen gained 0.2% to 106.46 per dollar.BondsThe yield on 10-year Treasuries climbed one basis point to 1.60%.Germany’s 10-year yield increased three basis points to -0.64%.Britain’s 10-year yield gained four basis points to 0.519%.CommoditiesThe Bloomberg Commodity Index dipped 0.4%.West Texas Intermediate crude fell 0.9% to $55.18 a barrel.Gold decreased 0.4% to $1,510.20 an ounce.\--With assistance from David Wilson, Paul Allen, Adam Haigh, Yakob Peterseil and Todd White.To contact the reporters on this story: Rita Nazareth in New York at firstname.lastname@example.org;Sarah Ponczek in New York at email@example.comTo contact the editors responsible for this story: Jeremy Herron at firstname.lastname@example.org, Rita NazarethFor more articles like this, please visit us at bloomberg.com©2019 Bloomberg L.P.
With increased talk of a future recession in the US, I have taken a look at a number of indicators that make interesting viewing. I also offer a number of indicators/charts I look at that have provided reliable signals of US recessions in the past.
European stock markets slipped and their US counterparts ticked upwards on Thursday, with the health of the European economy and the path of US monetary policy in focus. The Stoxx Europe 600 index nudged 0.2 per cent lower, while on Wall Street the S&P 500 gained 0.5 per cent. The euro gave up earlier gains to trade flat, after closely watched PMI surveys gave investors a snapshot of the health of the European economy.
(Bloomberg) -- Want the lowdown on European markets? In your inbox before the open, every day. Sign up here.U.S. stocks pared gains and Treasuries fell as Federal Reserve minutes fell short of signaling the central bank was ready to cut rates sharply.The S&P 500 Index moved away from Wednesday’s highs and two-year Treasury yields surged after the minutes indicated the Fed is prepared to ease if economic conditions worsen, while hinting the committee didn’t view the July cut as part of an extended cycle of reductions. The two-year yield was briefly above the 10-year rate, a key signal watched by investors and seen as a harbinger of a recession. The bond market expects almost 65 basis points of interest-rate cuts by the end of the year.Read: Fed Strategy Review Is Keeping Everything on the Table“With hopes for Fed stimulus as the biggest driver of stocks’ buoyancy in the face of trade tensions and weakening global growth, today’s relatively dovish Fed minutes were about in line with investors’ high expectations,” said Alec Young, managing director of global markets research at FTSE Russell.Stocks already started the day higher after solid results from retailers Target Corp. and Lowe’s Cos. defied recession fears. Traders also assessed the latest developments in the U.S.-China trade spat, with President Donald Trump predicting the U.S. will “probably” make a deal. Trump also said Wednesday that the economy is strong and kept up his relentless attack on the central bank, claiming that “the only problem we have is Jay Powell and the Fed.”Elsewhere, most European bonds fell after Germany saw anemic demand for a 30-year bond offering zero coupon. The British pound slipped as the possibility of a so-called no-deal Brexit gained momentum. Oil slid as a surprise jump in U.S. diesel and gasoline stockpiles raised concerns about weakening demand.Here are some notable events coming up:Thursday brings the Bank Indonesia rate decision and press conference with Governor Perry Warjiyo.Flash PMIs are due for the euro area on Thursday.Kansas City Federal Reserve Bank hosts its annual central banking symposium in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, starting Thursday. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell will give remarks on Friday.Here are the main moves in markets:StocksThe S&P 500 rose 0.8% to 2,924.43 as of 4 p.m. New York time.The Stoxx Europe 600 Index gained 1.2%.The MSCI Asia Pacific Index decreased 0.4%.CurrenciesThe Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index increased 0.1%.The euro dipped 0.1% to $1.1085.The British pound declined 0.4% to $1.2125.The Japanese yen fell 0.3% to 106.60 per dollar.BondsThe yield on 10-year Treasuries rose three basis points to 1.58%.Germany’s 10-year yield climbed two basis points to -0.67%.Britain’s 10-year yield increased three basis points to 0.479%.CommoditiesThe Bloomberg Commodity Index advanced 0.1%.West Texas Intermediate crude declined 0.8% to $55.68 a barrel.\--With assistance from Adam Haigh, Robert Brand, Luke Kawa, Nancy Moran, Sophie Caronello, Brandon Kochkodin and Laura Curtis.To contact the reporters on this story: Rita Nazareth in New York at email@example.com;Sarah Ponczek in New York at firstname.lastname@example.orgTo contact the editors responsible for this story: Jeremy Herron at email@example.com, Rita NazarethFor more articles like this, please visit us at bloomberg.com©2019 Bloomberg L.P.
Despite the trade war and the inverted yield curve, the S&P; 500 Index is down 1.8% this month. Its resiliency reflects the US consumer sector’s strength.
A growing number of investors, policymakers and others say the US economy may be at risk of spiraling downward. A finance professor explains how to ride it out, with 7 clear tips.
Investing.com – Stocks rose for the fourth day in the last five as investors were cheered by Boeing's hope to get its 737 Max jet back into the air and by gains in tech and retail stocks.
(Bloomberg) -- Equity hedge funds are enjoying their strongest performance since 2009 -- with the S&P 500 index up 16% this year -- but Goldman Sachs Group Inc. warns that crowding is a risk.Funds have benefited from both a rising stock market and successful stock selection, strategists including Ben Snider and David Kostin wrote in a note Aug. 20. They’ve also concentrated their holdings into a reduced number of industries, such as health care, and into single names, particularly Amazon.com. Inc. When rallies peak, too much professional money can try to get out of the same stocks simultaneously and exaggerate declines.“Funds continue to lift portfolio weights in their top positions, which are increasingly also the top positions of other funds,” the strategists wrote. “These dynamics, along with higher leverage, lower portfolio turnover, and declining market liquidity, have boosted the performance of momentum stocks while also increasing the risk funds face from crowding.”They added that this will “make funds particularly vulnerable to a potential market unwind, particularly if accompanied by the decline in liquidity that typically coincides with falling risk appetite.”Investment banks from Goldman to Morgan Stanley increasingly study the relative positioning of funds that compete with each other to beat benchmarks. The crowding issue is in focus this month, as August has seen a spike in stock and bond markets volatility. Hedge funds rushed for safety last quarter as Treasuries rallied and concerns about economic slowdown flared, regulatory filings compiled as of last week showed.Goldman found the most popular long positions had lagged the S&P 500. The favorite short positions trailed by even more. Overall, the average equity fund return in 2019 has been 9%.Alongside the success comes some concern as well, after examining the holdings of 835 hedge funds with $2.1 trillion of gross equity positions at the start of the third quarter.Goldman found a rotation continued from technology into health care, which is now the sector with the largest overweight versus the Russell 3000 Index, which like the S&P 500, is also up 16% this year. Overweights in health care and industrials are at a 10-year high, the report said. Funds trimmed positions in semiconductors and “other stocks exposed to U.S.-China trade conflict,” according to the strategists.Also, late June and July saw a sharp rise in exposures as the Federal Reserve began to cut rates and U.S.-China trade relations appeared to thaw, the strategists said. But leverage has been trimmed again in August. While the S&P 500 rose in June and July, it’s down 1.8% so far this month. Amazon.com appeared most frequently among the 10 largest holdings of funds, followed by Facebook Inc. New names on the list of the top 50 such stocks include Allergan Plc and Micron Technology Inc.(Adds S&P 500 performance in recent months in penultimate paragraph.)To contact the reporter on this story: Joanna Ossinger in Singapore at firstname.lastname@example.orgTo contact the editors responsible for this story: Christopher Anstey at email@example.com, ;Samuel Potter at firstname.lastname@example.org, Todd White, John ViljoenFor more articles like this, please visit us at bloomberg.com©2019 Bloomberg L.P.
Stock markets rallied again during the trading session on Wednesday, waiting for the Federal Reserve Meeting Minutes. That being said though, the technical analysis of the stock market probably won’t change much, simply because we also have the Jackson Hole meetings going on.
Based on the early price action, the direction of the September E-mini S&P; 500 Index is likely to be determined by trader reaction to the short-term 50% level at 2902.50.
The data provider is taking advantage of several growth tailwinds in the financial sector, but is the stock worth investing in?
Investing.com – Wall Street rose on Wednesday after positive earnings from Lowe’s (NYSE:LOW) and Target (NYSE:TGT) helped boost confidence over the economic health of U.S. consumers.