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Why Is Repligen (RGEN) Down 11.4% Since Last Earnings Report?

A month has gone by since the last earnings report for Repligen (RGEN). Shares have lost about 11.4% in that time frame, underperforming the S&P 500.

Will the recent negative trend continue leading up to its next earnings release, or is Repligen due for a breakout? Before we dive into how investors and analysts have reacted as of late, let's take a quick look at its most recent earnings report in order to get a better handle on the important catalysts.

Repligen Beats Q4 Earnings and Revenue Estimates

Repligen Corporation announced fourth-quarter 2022 adjusted earnings per share (EPS) of 68 cents, beating both the Zacks Consensus Estimate and our model estimates of 55 cents. Earnings dropped 16% year over year.

Total revenues of $187 million also surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $185 million and our model estimates of $183.2 million. Sales were essentially flat during the fourth-quarter. However, sales were up 5% on a constant currency basis, driven by major growth in the company’s filtration and chromatography franchises and robust demand across its core monoclonal antibody and gene therapy markets.

Repligen’s organic revenues increased 35% year over year in fourth-quarter 2022, excluding the impact of currency and acquisitions/divestitures.

Quarter in Detail

In the fourth quarter, Repligen reported product revenues of $187 million, almost flat year over year. The company reported royalty and other revenues of $0.24 million, indicating a 586% growth year over year.

During the quarter, Repligen’s base business revenues were up 35% year over year on an organic basis and 39% for full-year 2022.

We note that Repligen’s base business can be categorized mainly under four franchises, namely filtration, chromatography, protein and process analytics.

Repligen’s chromatography businesses were the major growth drivers in the reported quarter. The uptick in the business franchise offset the decline in COVID revenues.

Repligen’s chromatography business performed well with growth of more than 75% in the reported quarter. The growth was driven by increased demand for OPUS pre-packed columns as the demand for resin improved. The company anticipates its chromatography business to witness a 10% in 2023.

The filtration franchise declined 10% for the quarter due to drop in COVID revenues year-on-year. However, base filtration business was up 38%, driven by strength in systems, alternating tangential flow (ATF) and hollow fiber consumables.

Repligen’s process analytics franchises had a soft quarter. Repligen anticipates a growth rate to be in the range of 15 in its process analytics business for 2023.

Revenues from the protein franchise were down 8% in the fourth quarter, due to decreased demand from Cytiva. The decline in protein revenues was partially offset by a strong demand for NGL ligands, which Repligen supplies to Purolite. Repligen expects the protein business growth to be flat in 2023.

The gene-therapy business rose 36% in the quarter.

Adjusted gross profit was $96.1 million, down 9% from the year-ago quarter. Adjusted gross margin was 51.5% in the fourth quarter, down 490 basis points (bps) year over year. This decline was due to increased material cost, currency headwinds and a less favorable product mix.

For the reported quarter, adjusted research and development expenses were $11.0 million, up 27% from the year-ago quarter.

Adjusted selling, general and administrative expenses were $44 million, up 8.1% year over year.

Adjusted operating income was $41.1 million, down 26% year over year. Adjusted operating margin was 22%, down 800 bps year over year.

Results 2022

For 2022, Repligen generated revenues of $801.5 million, indicating 22% organic growth on a year-over-year basis and 25% growth at constant currency.

For the same period, the company reported earnings of $3.28 per share, up 7% year over year.

2023 Guidance

Repligen expects revenues in the range of $760-$800 million in 2023.

Repligen anticipates increased projected demand for products sold under its base business. However, RGEN expects the rise in revenues to be offset by dampened COVID-related sales due to slowing vaccination rates.

Gross margin is anticipated in the range of 52.5-53.5%. The company expects margins to improve with higher volumes through the second half of 2023.

Adjusted operating income is anticipated within $176-$182 million. Adjusted net income is now projected in the $149-$154 million band.

Adjusted EPS is anticipated in the $2.61-$2.69 range.

How Have Estimates Been Moving Since Then?

It turns out, estimates review have trended downward during the past month.

The consensus estimate has shifted -9.98% due to these changes.

VGM Scores

Currently, Repligen has an average Growth Score of C, though it is lagging a lot on the Momentum Score front with an F. However, the stock was allocated a grade of C on the value side, putting it in the middle 20% for this investment strategy.

Overall, the stock has an aggregate VGM Score of D. If you aren't focused on one strategy, this score is the one you should be interested in.

Outlook

Estimates have been broadly trending downward for the stock, and the magnitude of these revisions indicates a downward shift. Notably, Repligen has a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). We expect an in-line return from the stock in the next few months.

Performance of an Industry Player

Repligen belongs to the Zacks Medical - Biomedical and Genetics industry. Another stock from the same industry, Seattle Genetics (SGEN), has gained 22.1% over the past month. More than a month has passed since the company reported results for the quarter ended December 2022.

Seattle Genetics reported revenues of $528.15 million in the last reported quarter, representing a year-over-year change of +22.9%. EPS of -$0.80 for the same period compares with -$0.95 a year ago.

For the current quarter, Seattle Genetics is expected to post a loss of $0.83 per share, indicating a change of -12.2% from the year-ago quarter. The Zacks Consensus Estimate has changed +0.2% over the last 30 days.

Seattle Genetics has a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) based on the overall direction and magnitude of estimate revisions. Additionally, the stock has a VGM Score of F.

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