Yahoo Finance Why Is Methanex (MEOH) Up 14.4% Since Last Earnings Report?
It has been about a month since the last earnings report for Methanex (MEOH). Shares have added about 14.4% in that time frame, outperforming the S&P 500.
Will the recent positive trend continue leading up to its next earnings release, or is Methanex due for a pullback? Before we dive into how investors and analysts have reacted as of late, let's take a quick look at its most recent earnings report in order to get a better handle on the important catalysts.
Methanex's Earnings Lag Estimates in Q3, Sales Beat
Methanex logged a profit (attributable to shareholders) of $69 million or 87 cents per share in third-quarter 2022 versus $71 million or 93 cents per share in the year-ago quarter.
Adjusted earnings per share (barring one-time items) in the reported quarter were 69 cents, missing the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 82 cents.
Revenues fell around 6% year over year to $1,012 million in the quarter. The top line beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $981.7 million.
Adjusted EBITDA in the reported quarter fell around 27% year over year to $192 million. The results in the reported quarter were hurt by lower average realized prices and reduced sales volumes.
Operational Highlights
Production in the quarter totaled 1,252,000 tons, down around 15% year over year. Total sales volume in the third quarter totaled 2,677,000 tons, down roughly 3% year over year.
The average realized price for methanol was $377 per ton in the quarter, down roughly 3% from $390 per ton in the prior-year quarter.
Financials
Cash and cash equivalents increased 3% year over year to $961.8 million at the end of the third quarter. Long-term debt at the end of the quarter was $2,138.9 million, almost flat year over year.
Cash flow from operating activities was $325.8 million, up around 8% year over year.
Methanex increased the quarterly dividend by 20% in July 2022. It also announced the approval of a 5% share repurchase program in September 2022.
The company returned $44 million to shareholders through dividends and share repurchases in the reported quarter.
Outlook
Methanex said that it is seeing stable demand and firm methanol prices heading into the fourth quarter. It forecasts production for 2022 to be roughly 1.2-1.3 million tons in New Zealand. The company projects production in 2022 to be roughly 0.9 million tons in Chile. The construction of the Geismar 3 project is progressing and is expected to be operational in the fourth quarter of 2023.
How Have Estimates Been Moving Since Then?
In the past month, investors have witnessed a downward trend in estimates review.
The consensus estimate has shifted -49.09% due to these changes.
VGM Scores
Currently, Methanex has a great Growth Score of A, though it is lagging a lot on the Momentum Score front with an F. However, the stock was allocated a grade of A on the value side, putting it in the top quintile for this investment strategy.
Overall, the stock has an aggregate VGM Score of A. If you aren't focused on one strategy, this score is the one you should be interested in.
Outlook
Estimates have been broadly trending downward for the stock, and the magnitude of these revisions indicates a downward shift. Notably, Methanex has a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). We expect an in-line return from the stock in the next few months.
Performance of an Industry Player
Methanex belongs to the Zacks Chemical - Diversified industry. Another stock from the same industry, Dow Inc. (DOW), has gained 8.3% over the past month. More than a month has passed since the company reported results for the quarter ended September 2022.
Dow Inc. reported revenues of $14.12 billion in the last reported quarter, representing a year-over-year change of -4.9%. EPS of $1.11 for the same period compares with $2.75 a year ago.
For the current quarter, Dow Inc. is expected to post earnings of $0.57 per share, indicating a change of -73.5% from the year-ago quarter. The Zacks Consensus Estimate has changed -12.5% over the last 30 days.
The overall direction and magnitude of estimate revisions translate into a Zacks Rank #5 (Strong Sell) for Dow Inc. Also, the stock has a VGM Score of B.
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