Yahoo Finance Weibo's (NASDAQ:WB) earnings trajectory could turn positive as the stock grows 7.0% this past week
Every investor on earth makes bad calls sometimes. But really big losses can really drag down an overall portfolio. So spare a thought for the long term shareholders of Weibo Corporation (NASDAQ:WB); the share price is down a whopping 86% in the last three years. That might cause some serious doubts about the merits of the initial decision to buy the stock, to put it mildly. And over the last year the share price fell 38%, so we doubt many shareholders are delighted. But it's up 7.0% in the last week. We really hope anyone holding through that price crash has a diversified portfolio. Even when you lose money, you don't have to lose the lesson.
Although the past week has been more reassuring for shareholders, they're still in the red over the last three years, so let's see if the underlying business has been responsible for the decline.
View our latest analysis for Weibo
In his essay The Superinvestors of Graham-and-Doddsville Warren Buffett described how share prices do not always rationally reflect the value of a business. One flawed but reasonable way to assess how sentiment around a company has changed is to compare the earnings per share (EPS) with the share price.
During the three years that the share price fell, Weibo's earnings per share (EPS) dropped by 4.3% each year. This reduction in EPS is slower than the 48% annual reduction in the share price. So it seems the market was too confident about the business, in the past. This increased caution is also evident in the rather low P/E ratio, which is sitting at 6.86.
The graphic below depicts how EPS has changed over time (unveil the exact values by clicking on the image).
We know that Weibo has improved its bottom line lately, but is it going to grow revenue? Check if analysts think Weibo will grow revenue in the future.
What About The Total Shareholder Return (TSR)?
Investors should note that there's a difference between Weibo's total shareholder return (TSR) and its share price change, which we've covered above. The TSR attempts to capture the value of dividends (as if they were reinvested) as well as any spin-offs or discounted capital raisings offered to shareholders. Weibo hasn't been paying dividends, but its TSR of -84% exceeds its share price return of -86%, implying it has either spun-off a business, or raised capital at a discount; thereby providing additional value to shareholders.
A Different Perspective
Investors in Weibo had a tough year, with a total loss of 32%, against a market gain of about 26%. However, keep in mind that even the best stocks will sometimes underperform the market over a twelve month period. Unfortunately, last year's performance may indicate unresolved challenges, given that it was worse than the annualised loss of 12% over the last half decade. Generally speaking long term share price weakness can be a bad sign, though contrarian investors might want to research the stock in hope of a turnaround. While it is well worth considering the different impacts that market conditions can have on the share price, there are other factors that are even more important. Even so, be aware that Weibo is showing 1 warning sign in our investment analysis , you should know about...
If you would prefer to check out another company -- one with potentially superior financials -- then do not miss this free list of companies that have proven they can grow earnings.
Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on American exchanges.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
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