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Who will Wales play next at Euro 2020? Possible last-16 opponents

·3-min read
Wales’ Aaron Ramsey (left) and Gareth Bale (right) during a training session at the Stadio Olimpico in Rome (PA Wire)
Wales’ Aaron Ramsey (left) and Gareth Bale (right) during a training session at the Stadio Olimpico in Rome (PA Wire)

Wales are into the round of 16 at Euro 2020 after Robert Page’s side finished Group A with defeat to Italy in Rome.

But a battling performance ensured Switzerland could not leapfrog the Dragons, whose impressive victory over Turkey ensured their goal difference clinched second.

The Welsh will now prepare for their knock-out match on Saturday in Amsterdam.

Memories of Euro 2016 are starting to become more vivid with this group dreaming of replicating that incredible run.

Wales still do not know who they will face, but it is now down to just four possible opponents, here are the potential outcomes from the conclusion to Group B on Monday night:

Belgium will win Group B if they do not lose to Finland, meaning the runner-up would be between either Russia or Finland, who both have three points, or Denmark, who have zero points and must beat Russia in their final group game to stand a chance.

If Finland could beat Belgium, this would then put them up against Belgium in the last 16.

If Finland can manage a draw against Belgium and Denmark beat Russia, Wales will play Finland in the last 16.

If Finland draw with Belgium and Russia claim a draw with Denmark, then Wales would play Russia as the group runner-up due to their superior head-to-head with Finland thanks to Aleksei Miranchuk’s goal in the 1-0 win.

If Russia win against Denmark and Finland win against Belgium, then the three sides would enter a mini group based on head-to-head results between the sides.

In this scenario, Belgium would win the group, unless Finland win by two goals, with Russia destined for third in this scenario due to their negative three goal difference from the game against the Red Devils.

Should the Danes beat Russia by more than one goal and Finland loses to Belgium, then they would win a mini group on head-to-head results between the sides, due to their minimum goal difference of zero and minimum goals scored of three.

Here is where it gets tricky, if Denmark only win by one goal but score two or more (i.e. 2-1, 3-2, etc), then they would finish runner-up as long as Belgium beat Finland due to their superior goals scored in head-to-head games between the three sides, thanks to Yussef Poulsen’s goal against Belgium.

If it is just 1-0 to Denmark, with Belgium beating Finland, then a situation would emerge with Denmark, Finland and Russia all tied up in the mini group on head-to-head games with the same points, goal difference and goals scored.

In this instance, if Belgium’s win over Finland is by one or two goals, then Russia would be eliminated by their inferior group goal difference, step five in Uefa’s tie-breaking system, due to their 3-0 to Belgium, which would put them on negative three.

Denmark then edge out Finland as long as their defeat to Belgium is not by one goal with Finland scoring at least two, e.g. 2-3, 3-4, 4-5, etc.

If it is exactly 2-1 to Belgium, i.e. the same score Denmark lost to Belgium in the second round of games, then it will be decided on disciplinary points.

That’s due to both sides having the same goal difference in the group, the same number of goals scored in the group, the same number of wins in the group and the fact that the teams aren't playing each other in the final game (if this was the case then there would be a penalty shoot-out to decide who finishes higher).

It would then come down to step eight, which is the least amount of disciplinary points in group matches, with Denmark currently only earning three yellow cards against Finland's four yellow cards so far. Obviously this could change in the final game, but Denmark have a small advantage here.

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