Momentum investing is all about the idea of following a stock's recent trend, which can be in either direction. In the 'long' context, investors will essentially be "buying high, but hoping to sell even higher." And for investors following this methodology, taking advantage of trends in a stock's price is key; once a stock establishes a course, it is more than likely to continue moving in that direction. The goal is that once a stock heads down a fixed path, it will lead to timely and profitable trades.
Even though momentum is a popular stock characteristic, it can be tough to define. Debate surrounding which are the best and worst metrics to focus on is lengthy, but the Zacks Momentum Style Score, part of the Zacks Style Scores, helps address this issue for us.
Below, we take a look at Ulta Beauty (ULTA), which currently has a Momentum Style Score of A. We also discuss some of the main drivers of the Momentum Style Score, like price change and earnings estimate revisions.
It's also important to note that Style Scores work as a complement to the Zacks Rank, our stock rating system that has an impressive track record of outperformance. Ulta Beauty currently has a Zacks Rank of #2 (Buy). Our research shows that stocks rated Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy) and #2 (Buy) and Style Scores of A or B outperform the market over the following one-month period.
You can see the current list of Zacks #1 Rank Stocks here >>>
Set to Beat the Market?
Let's discuss some of the components of the Momentum Style Score for ULTA that show why this beauty products retailer shows promise as a solid momentum pick.
Looking at a stock's short-term price activity is a great way to gauge if it has momentum, since this can reflect both the current interest in a stock and if buyers or sellers have the upper hand at the moment. It's also helpful to compare a security to its industry; this can show investors the best companies in a particular area.
For ULTA, shares are up 5.13% over the past week while the Zacks Retail - Miscellaneous industry is up 1.41% over the same time period. Shares are looking quite well from a longer time frame too, as the monthly price change of 12.68% compares favorably with the industry's 5.19% performance as well.
While any stock can see a spike in price, it takes a real winner to consistently outperform the market. Over the past quarter, shares of Ulta Beauty have risen 5.91%, and are up 21.15% in the last year. In comparison, the S&P 500 has only moved 2.28% and -10.46%, respectively.
Investors should also take note of ULTA's average 20-day trading volume. Volume is a useful item in many ways, and the 20-day average establishes a good price-to-volume baseline; a rising stock with above average volume is generally a bullish sign, whereas a declining stock on above average volume is typically bearish. Right now, ULTA is averaging 716,087 shares for the last 20 days.
The Zacks Momentum Style Score encompasses many things, including estimate revisions and a stock's price movement. Investors should note that earnings estimates are also significant to the Zacks Rank, and a nice path here can be promising. We have recently been noticing this with ULTA.
Over the past two months, 10 earnings estimates moved higher compared to 1 lower for the full year. These revisions helped boost ULTA's consensus estimate, increasing from $21.36 to $22.55 in the past 60 days. Looking at the next fiscal year, 10 estimates have moved upwards while there have been 2 downward revisions in the same time period.
Taking into account all of these elements, it should come as no surprise that ULTA is a #2 (Buy) stock with a Momentum Score of A. If you've been searching for a fresh pick that's set to rise in the near-term, make sure to keep Ulta Beauty on your short list.
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