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Trinity Industries (TRN) Up 21.1% Since Last Earnings Report: Can It Continue?

A month has gone by since the last earnings report for Trinity Industries (TRN). Shares have added about 21.1% in that time frame, outperforming the S&P 500.

Will the recent positive trend continue leading up to its next earnings release, or is Trinity Industries due for a pullback? Before we dive into how investors and analysts have reacted as of late, let's take a quick look at the most recent earnings report in order to get a better handle on the important catalysts.

Trinity Beats Q3 Earnings Estimates

Trinity’s third-quarter 2022 earnings of 34 cents per share outpaced the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 31 cents and improved year over year. The bottom line was backed by improved operating results and the impact of lower diluted weighted average shares outstanding.

Total revenues of $496.6 million fell short of the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $708 million and declined 1.4% year over year. The top line was aided by a higher volume of external deliveries and improved pricing in the Rail Products Group.

The Railcar Leasing and Management Services Group generated revenues of $194.8 million, up 5% year over year. Segmental revenues were boosted by higher utilization, increased lease fleet size and improved renewal rates.

Revenues in the Rail Products Group (before eliminations) totaled $597.3 million, up 75.7% year over year. Higher delivery volumes, favorable pricing and price escalation boosted segmental revenues. Segmental operating profit was $26 million compared with a loss of $3.1 million in the year-ago period.

During the third quarter, Trinity rewarded its shareholders with dividends worth $19 million and repurchased shares worth $14.4 million.

Trinity exited the third quarter with cash and cash equivalents of $58.5 million compared with $59.7 million at the end of June 2022. Debt totaled $5,493.7 million as of Sep 30, 2022, compared with $5,539.1 million at the end of June 2022.

Trinity anticipates full-year earnings in the range of 90 cents-$1.10 per share. The Zacks Consensus Estimate of 98 cents lies within the guidance.

How Have Estimates Been Moving Since Then?

It turns out, estimates review have trended upward during the past month.

The consensus estimate has shifted 15.85% due to these changes.

VGM Scores

Currently, Trinity Industries has a poor Growth Score of F, however its Momentum Score is doing a bit better with a D. Charting a somewhat similar path, the stock was allocated a grade of C on the value side, putting it in the middle 20% for this investment strategy.

Overall, the stock has an aggregate VGM Score of F. If you aren't focused on one strategy, this score is the one you should be interested in.

Outlook

Estimates have been trending upward for the stock, and the magnitude of this revision looks promising. Notably, Trinity Industries has a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). We expect an in-line return from the stock in the next few months.

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