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Tribune Resources Limited's (ASX:TBR) Stock's Been Going Strong: Could Weak Financials Mean The Market Will Correct Its Share Price?

Most readers would already be aware that Tribune Resources' (ASX:TBR) stock increased significantly by 41% over the past three months. We, however wanted to have a closer look at its key financial indicators as the markets usually pay for long-term fundamentals, and in this case, they don't look very promising. Particularly, we will be paying attention to Tribune Resources' ROE today.

Return on Equity or ROE is a test of how effectively a company is growing its value and managing investors’ money. Put another way, it reveals the company's success at turning shareholder investments into profits.

Check out our latest analysis for Tribune Resources

How Do You Calculate Return On Equity?

The formula for return on equity is:

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Return on Equity = Net Profit (from continuing operations) ÷ Shareholders' Equity

So, based on the above formula, the ROE for Tribune Resources is:

3.8% = AU$11m ÷ AU$291m (Based on the trailing twelve months to December 2023).

The 'return' refers to a company's earnings over the last year. That means that for every A$1 worth of shareholders' equity, the company generated A$0.04 in profit.

Why Is ROE Important For Earnings Growth?

So far, we've learned that ROE is a measure of a company's profitability. We now need to evaluate how much profit the company reinvests or "retains" for future growth which then gives us an idea about the growth potential of the company. Assuming all else is equal, companies that have both a higher return on equity and higher profit retention are usually the ones that have a higher growth rate when compared to companies that don't have the same features.

Tribune Resources' Earnings Growth And 3.8% ROE

As you can see, Tribune Resources' ROE looks pretty weak. Not just that, even compared to the industry average of 10%, the company's ROE is entirely unremarkable. Given the circumstances, the significant decline in net income by 40% seen by Tribune Resources over the last five years is not surprising. We reckon that there could also be other factors at play here. For example, the business has allocated capital poorly, or that the company has a very high payout ratio.

However, when we compared Tribune Resources' growth with the industry we found that while the company's earnings have been shrinking, the industry has seen an earnings growth of 21% in the same period. This is quite worrisome.

past-earnings-growth
past-earnings-growth

Earnings growth is a huge factor in stock valuation. The investor should try to establish if the expected growth or decline in earnings, whichever the case may be, is priced in. By doing so, they will have an idea if the stock is headed into clear blue waters or if swampy waters await. One good indicator of expected earnings growth is the P/E ratio which determines the price the market is willing to pay for a stock based on its earnings prospects. So, you may want to check if Tribune Resources is trading on a high P/E or a low P/E, relative to its industry.

Is Tribune Resources Using Its Retained Earnings Effectively?

Tribune Resources' very high three-year median payout ratio of 288% over the last three years suggests that the company is paying its shareholders more than what it is earning and this explains the company's shrinking earnings. Its usually very hard to sustain dividend payments that are higher than reported profits. You can see the 2 risks we have identified for Tribune Resources by visiting our risks dashboard for free on our platform here.

Moreover, Tribune Resources has been paying dividends for seven years, which is a considerable amount of time, suggesting that management must have perceived that the shareholders prefer consistent dividends even though earnings have been shrinking.

Conclusion

On the whole, Tribune Resources' performance is quite a big let-down. Specifically, it has shown quite an unsatisfactory performance as far as earnings growth is concerned, and a poor ROE and an equally poor rate of reinvestment seem to be the reason behind this inadequate performance. So far, we've only made a quick discussion around the company's earnings growth. To gain further insights into Tribune Resources' past profit growth, check out this visualization of past earnings, revenue and cash flows.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.