Transurban Group's (ASX:TCL) Intrinsic Value Is Potentially 24% Below Its Share Price

Key Insights

• Using the 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity, Transurban Group fair value estimate is AU$9.39

• Transurban Group is estimated to be 31% overvalued based on current share price of AU$12.28

• The AU$13.24 analyst price target for TCL is 41% more than our estimate of fair value

Today we'll do a simple run through of a valuation method used to estimate the attractiveness of Transurban Group (ASX:TCL) as an investment opportunity by estimating the company's future cash flows and discounting them to their present value. We will take advantage of the Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model for this purpose. Don't get put off by the jargon, the math behind it is actually quite straightforward.

We would caution that there are many ways of valuing a company and, like the DCF, each technique has advantages and disadvantages in certain scenarios. For those who are keen learners of equity analysis, the Simply Wall St analysis model here may be something of interest to you.

See our latest analysis for Transurban Group

The Method

We use what is known as a 2-stage model, which simply means we have two different periods of growth rates for the company's cash flows. Generally the first stage is higher growth, and the second stage is a lower growth phase. To begin with, we have to get estimates of the next ten years of cash flows. Where possible we use analyst estimates, but when these aren't available we extrapolate the previous free cash flow (FCF) from the last estimate or reported value. We assume companies with shrinking free cash flow will slow their rate of shrinkage, and that companies with growing free cash flow will see their growth rate slow, over this period. We do this to reflect that growth tends to slow more in the early years than it does in later years.

A DCF is all about the idea that a dollar in the future is less valuable than a dollar today, so we need to discount the sum of these future cash flows to arrive at a present value estimate:

10-year free cash flow (FCF) forecast

	2024	2025	2026	2027	2028	2029	2030	2031	2032	2033
Levered FCF (A$, Millions)	AU$2.23b	AU$2.16b	AU$2.04b	AU$2.18b	AU$2.25b	AU$2.29b	AU$2.34b	AU$2.39b	AU$2.44b	AU$2.50b
Growth Rate Estimate Source	Analyst x6	Analyst x6	Analyst x5	Analyst x2	Analyst x2	Est @ 1.98%	Est @ 2.07%	Est @ 2.12%	Est @ 2.16%	Est @ 2.19%
Present Value (A$, Millions) Discounted @ 9.3%	AU$2.0k	AU$1.8k	AU$1.6k	AU$1.5k	AU$1.4k	AU$1.3k	AU$1.3k	AU$1.2k	AU$1.1k	AU$1.0k

("Est" = FCF growth rate estimated by Simply Wall St)
Present Value of 10-year Cash Flow (PVCF) = AU$14b

After calculating the present value of future cash flows in the initial 10-year period, we need to calculate the Terminal Value, which accounts for all future cash flows beyond the first stage. The Gordon Growth formula is used to calculate Terminal Value at a future annual growth rate equal to the 5-year average of the 10-year government bond yield of 2.3%. We discount the terminal cash flows to today's value at a cost of equity of 9.3%.

Terminal Value (TV)= FCF₂₀₃₃ × (1 + g) ÷ (r – g) = AU$2.5b× (1 + 2.3%) ÷ (9.3%– 2.3%) = AU$36b

Present Value of Terminal Value (PVTV)= TV / (1 + r)¹⁰= AU$36b÷ ( 1 + 9.3%)¹⁰= AU$15b

The total value, or equity value, is then the sum of the present value of the future cash flows, which in this case is AU$29b. In the final step we divide the equity value by the number of shares outstanding. Relative to the current share price of AU$12.3, the company appears reasonably expensive at the time of writing. Remember though, that this is just an approximate valuation, and like any complex formula - garbage in, garbage out.

dcf

Important Assumptions

The calculation above is very dependent on two assumptions. The first is the discount rate and the other is the cash flows. Part of investing is coming up with your own evaluation of a company's future performance, so try the calculation yourself and check your own assumptions. The DCF also does not consider the possible cyclicality of an industry, or a company's future capital requirements, so it does not give a full picture of a company's potential performance. Given that we are looking at Transurban Group as potential shareholders, the cost of equity is used as the discount rate, rather than the cost of capital (or weighted average cost of capital, WACC) which accounts for debt. In this calculation we've used 9.3%, which is based on a levered beta of 1.538. Beta is a measure of a stock's volatility, compared to the market as a whole. We get our beta from the industry average beta of globally comparable companies, with an imposed limit between 0.8 and 2.0, which is a reasonable range for a stable business.

SWOT Analysis for Transurban Group

Strength

• Earnings growth over the past year exceeded the industry.

Weakness

• Interest payments on debt are not well covered.

• Dividend is low compared to the top 25% of dividend payers in the Infrastructure market.

• Expensive based on P/S ratio and estimated fair value.

Opportunity

• Annual earnings are forecast to grow faster than the Australian market.

Threat

• Debt is not well covered by operating cash flow.

• Dividends are not covered by earnings and cashflows.

• Annual revenue is forecast to grow slower than the Australian market.

Next Steps:

Whilst important, the DCF calculation is only one of many factors that you need to assess for a company. It's not possible to obtain a foolproof valuation with a DCF model. Preferably you'd apply different cases and assumptions and see how they would impact the company's valuation. For instance, if the terminal value growth rate is adjusted slightly, it can dramatically alter the overall result. What is the reason for the share price exceeding the intrinsic value? For Transurban Group, we've put together three important factors you should look at:

1. Risks: For instance, we've identified 2 warning signs for Transurban Group that you should be aware of.

2. Management:Have insiders been ramping up their shares to take advantage of the market's sentiment for TCL's future outlook? Check out our management and board analysis with insights on CEO compensation and governance factors.

3. Other Solid Businesses: Low debt, high returns on equity and good past performance are fundamental to a strong business. Why not explore our interactive list of stocks with solid business fundamentals to see if there are other companies you may not have considered!

PS. The Simply Wall St app conducts a discounted cash flow valuation for every stock on the ASX every day. If you want to find the calculation for other stocks just search here.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.