Yahoo Finance The total return for Iluka Resources (ASX:ILU) investors has risen faster than earnings growth over the last three years
It can certainly be frustrating when a stock does not perform as hoped. But when the market is down, you're bound to have some losers. The Iluka Resources Limited (ASX:ILU) is down 16% over three years, but the total shareholder return is 72% once you include the dividend. And that total return actually beats the market decline of 14%. Shareholders have had an even rougher run lately, with the share price down 15% in the last 90 days. However, one could argue that the price has been influenced by the general market, which is down 12% in the same timeframe.
With the stock having lost 14% in the past week, it's worth taking a look at business performance and seeing if there's any red flags.
View our latest analysis for Iluka Resources
There is no denying that markets are sometimes efficient, but prices do not always reflect underlying business performance. One imperfect but simple way to consider how the market perception of a company has shifted is to compare the change in the earnings per share (EPS) with the share price movement.
Although the share price is down over three years, Iluka Resources actually managed to grow EPS by 6.1% per year in that time. This is quite a puzzle, and suggests there might be something temporarily buoying the share price. Or else the company was over-hyped in the past, and so its growth has disappointed.
Since the change in EPS doesn't seem to correlate with the change in share price, it's worth taking a look at other metrics.
With revenue flat over three years, it seems unlikely that the share price is reflecting the top line. We're not entirely sure why the share price is dropped, but it does seem likely investors have become less optimistic about the business.
The graphic below depicts how earnings and revenue have changed over time (unveil the exact values by clicking on the image).
We consider it positive that insiders have made significant purchases in the last year. Even so, future earnings will be far more important to whether current shareholders make money. You can see what analysts are predicting for Iluka Resources in this interactive graph of future profit estimates.
What About Dividends?
As well as measuring the share price return, investors should also consider the total shareholder return (TSR). Whereas the share price return only reflects the change in the share price, the TSR includes the value of dividends (assuming they were reinvested) and the benefit of any discounted capital raising or spin-off. So for companies that pay a generous dividend, the TSR is often a lot higher than the share price return. In the case of Iluka Resources, it has a TSR of 72% for the last 3 years. That exceeds its share price return that we previously mentioned. The dividends paid by the company have thusly boosted the total shareholder return.
A Different Perspective
It's good to see that Iluka Resources has rewarded shareholders with a total shareholder return of 16% in the last twelve months. Of course, that includes the dividend. Having said that, the five-year TSR of 18% a year, is even better. While it is well worth considering the different impacts that market conditions can have on the share price, there are other factors that are even more important. Like risks, for instance. Every company has them, and we've spotted 2 warning signs for Iluka Resources (of which 1 is a bit unpleasant!) you should know about.
Iluka Resources is not the only stock insiders are buying. So take a peek at this free list of growing companies with insider buying.
Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on AU exchanges.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
