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Those who invested in Australian Strategic Materials (ASX:ASM) a year ago are up 34%

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It hasn't been the best quarter for Australian Strategic Materials Ltd (ASX:ASM) shareholders, since the share price has fallen 23% in that time. But that doesn't change the reality that over twelve months the stock has done really well. After all, the share price is up a market-beating 34% in that time.

Now it's worth having a look at the company's fundamentals too, because that will help us determine if the long term shareholder return has matched the performance of the underlying business.

See our latest analysis for Australian Strategic Materials

With just AU$1,683,000 worth of revenue in twelve months, we don't think the market considers Australian Strategic Materials to have proven its business plan. So it seems that the investors focused more on what could be, than paying attention to the current revenues (or lack thereof). For example, investors may be hoping that Australian Strategic Materials finds some valuable resources, before it runs out of money.

As a general rule, if a company doesn't have much revenue, and it loses money, then it is a high risk investment. You should be aware that there is always a chance that this sort of company will need to issue more shares to raise money to continue pursuing its business plan. While some such companies go on to make revenue, profits, and generate value, others get hyped up by hopeful naifs before eventually going bankrupt.

Australian Strategic Materials had cash in excess of all liabilities of just AU$23m when it last reported (December 2021). So if it has not already moved to replenish reserves, we think the near-term chances of a capital raising event are pretty high. It's a testament to the popularity of the business plan that the share price gained 136% in the last year , despite the weak balance sheet. You can see in the image below, how Australian Strategic Materials' cash levels have changed over time (click to see the values).

debt-equity-history-analysis
debt-equity-history-analysis

Of course, the truth is that it is hard to value companies without much revenue or profit. However you can take a look at whether insiders have been buying up shares. It's often positive if so, assuming the buying is sustained and meaningful. You can click here to see if there are insiders buying.

A Different Perspective

It's nice to see that Australian Strategic Materials shareholders have gained 34% over the last year. We regret to report that the share price is down 23% over ninety days. Shorter term share price moves often don't signify much about the business itself. It's always interesting to track share price performance over the longer term. But to understand Australian Strategic Materials better, we need to consider many other factors. Even so, be aware that Australian Strategic Materials is showing 3 warning signs in our investment analysis , and 1 of those is a bit unpleasant...

If you like to buy stocks alongside management, then you might just love this free list of companies. (Hint: insiders have been buying them).

Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on AU exchanges.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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