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SVB fallout, inflation, retail sales: What to know this week

Two key economic data points ahead of the Federal Reserve's next policy meeting will greet investors in the week ahead as the eyes of the investing public — and beyond — will remain locked on the latest developments in the fallout from Silicon Valley Bank's collapse last week.

The February Consumer Price Index (CPI) on Tuesday and the February read on retail sales out Wednesday morning will likely firm up investor expectations for the Fed's next policy move.

Consensus forecasts are calling for CPI to rise 6% over last year on a headline basis and 5.5% on a "core" basis in February, according to data from Trading Economics. A 6% increase in inflation would mark the slowest annual increase in consumer prices since September 2021.

Investor focus on the Fed's next steps in the inflation fight, however, has been usurped as the top focus for investors in recent days with Friday's shock collapse of Silicon Valley Bank and fears over what the second-largest bank failure in U.S. history could mean for the broader financial system.

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On Sunday evening, financial regulators said SVB depositors will have access to all of their money starting Monday, March 13.

In a joint statement, the heads of the Federal Reserve, Treasury Department, and FDIC said: "After receiving a recommendation from the boards of the FDIC and the Federal Reserve, and consulting with the President, Secretary Yellen approved actions enabling the FDIC to complete its resolution of Silicon Valley Bank, Santa Clara, California, in a manner that fully protects all depositors. Depositors will have access to all of their money starting Monday, March 13. No losses associated with the resolution of Silicon Valley Bank will be borne by the taxpayer."

U.S. futures opened higher on Sunday evening.

As Yahoo Finance's Jennifer Schonberger reported Friday, TD Cowen analyst Jaret Seiberg wrote Friday that the firm does "not see this as the start of a broader threat to the safety and soundness of the banking system."

"Much like Silvergate (SI), Silicon Valley had a unique business model that was less dependent on retail deposits than a traditional bank," Seiberg added. "This left the bank more exposed to interest rate risk as its funding got more expensive, but its assets were not repricing higher."

A view of the Park Avenue location of Silicon Valley Bank (SVB), in New York City, U.S., March 10, 2023. REUTERS/David 'Dee' Delgado
A view of the Park Avenue location of Silicon Valley Bank (SVB), in New York City, U.S., March 10, 2023. REUTERS/David 'Dee' Delgado (David Dee Delgado / reuters)

In a note to clients published Friday, Kabir Caprihan, an analyst at JPMorgan, echoed much of this sentiment, writing: "At the outset, we don’t believe [Silicon Valley Bank's collapse] to be systemic, but it does reflect some of the structural issues that we highlighted in our outlook and what drove our Underweight on regional banks."

The scale and particular challenges that took down Silicon Valley Bank are unique — its exposure to the cash-burning tech world most punished by investors during the Fed's rate-hiking campaign being at the top of this list. But the general story of a surge in deposits in 2021, outflows in recent months, and losses in securities portfolios is likely to challenge some regional banks in the near term.

Across the Atlantic, UK finance minister Jeremy Hunt said the British government has been working to ensure any UK firm's facing cash needs from SVB's failure "are able to meet their cashflow requirements to pay their staff."

Semafor reported over the weekend hedge funds have been reaching out to startups with cash stuck at Silicon Valley Bank with offers to buy their deposits at a discount, as some companies face a cash crunch with payroll looming and a potentially long road ahead to being made whole on money deposited with the failed bank.

This comes as regulators feel out buyers for Silicon Valley Bank as well as the wealth management, investment, and securities business housed under the bank's former parent company, SVB Financial (SIVB). Employees of the failed Silicon Valley Bank will remain employed for 45 days before being let go, Bloomberg reported Saturday.

"The circumstances of the Silicon Valley Bank collapse are unique enough that it probably won't trigger a widespread financial contagion," wrote Paul Ashworth, chief North America economist at Capital Economics. "Nevertheless, it is a timely reminder that when the Fed is singularly focused on squeezing inflation by jacking up interest rates – it often ends up breaking things."

Economic Calendar

Monday: No major economic releases scheduled.

Tuesday: Consumer Price Index, year-over-year, February (+6% expected vs. +6.4% in January); Consumer Price Index, month-over-month, February (+0.4% expected vs. +0.5% in January); "Core" CPI, year-over-year, February (+5.5% expected vs. 5.6% in January); "Core" CPI, month-over-month, February (+0.4% expected vs. +0.4% in January)

Wednesday: MBA Mortgage Applications; Producer prices, year-over-year, February (+5.4% expected vs. 6% in January); Producer prices, month-over-month, February (+0.3% expected vs. +0.7% in January); "Core" PPI, year-over-year, February (+5.2% expected vs. +5.4% in January); "Core" PPI, month-over-month, February (+0.4% expected vs. 0.4% in January); Retail sales, month-over-month, February (-0.3% expected vs. +3% in January); NAHB Home Builder Sentiment, March (42 expected vs. 42 in February)

Thursday: Building permits, February (1.238 million annualized rate vs. 1.339 million in January); Housing starts, February (1.31 million annualized rate vs. 1.309 million in January); Initial jobless claims (205,000 expected vs. 211,000 last week); Philly Fed manufacturing survey

Friday: Industrial production, February (+0.4% expected vs. 0% in January); University of Michigan consumer sentiment, preliminary March reading

Earnings Calendar

Monday: GitLab (GTLB)

Tuesday: Lennar (LEN); Guess (GES); SentinelOne (S); StoneCo (STNE)

Wednesday: Adobe (ADBE); Oatly (OTLY); UiPath (PATH); Five Below (FIVE)

Thursday: FedEx (FDX); Dollar General (DG); G-III Apparel (GIII); Jabil (JBL); Signet Jewelers (SIG); Academy Sports (ASO); Williams-Sonoma (WSM); Traeger (COOK)

Friday: No notable earnings set for release.

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