Yahoo Finance Stadler Rail AG Just Missed Earnings - But Analysts Have Updated Their Models
It's shaping up to be a tough period for Stadler Rail AG (VTX:SRAIL), which a week ago released some disappointing annual results that could have a notable impact on how the market views the stock. Stadler Rail missed earnings this time around, with CHF3.6b revenue coming in 5.0% below what the analysts had modelled. Statutory earnings per share (EPS) of CHF1.24 also fell short of expectations by 13%. Earnings are an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance, look at what the analysts are forecasting for next year, and see if there's been a change in sentiment towards the company. We've gathered the most recent statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their earnings models, following these results.
See our latest analysis for Stadler Rail
Taking into account the latest results, the consensus forecast from Stadler Rail's nine analysts is for revenues of CHF3.83b in 2024. This reflects a reasonable 6.2% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to climb 16% to CHF1.44. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of CHF4.04b and earnings per share (EPS) of CHF1.67 in 2024. The analysts seem less optimistic after the recent results, reducing their revenue forecasts and making a substantial drop in earnings per share numbers.
The analysts made no major changes to their price target of CHF31.42, suggesting the downgrades are not expected to have a long-term impact on Stadler Rail's valuation. Fixating on a single price target can be unwise though, since the consensus target is effectively the average of analyst price targets. As a result, some investors like to look at the range of estimates to see if there are any diverging opinions on the company's valuation. There are some variant perceptions on Stadler Rail, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at CHF39.00 and the most bearish at CHF25.00 per share. This shows there is still a bit of diversity in estimates, but analysts don't appear to be totally split on the stock as though it might be a success or failure situation.
These estimates are interesting, but it can be useful to paint some more broad strokes when seeing how forecasts compare, both to the Stadler Rail's past performance and to peers in the same industry. We would highlight that Stadler Rail's revenue growth is expected to slow, with the forecast 6.2% annualised growth rate until the end of 2024 being well below the historical 9.2% p.a. growth over the last five years. Juxtapose this against the other companies in the industry with analyst coverage, which are forecast to grow their revenues (in aggregate) 5.9% annually. So it's pretty clear that, while Stadler Rail's revenue growth is expected to slow, it's expected to grow roughly in line with the industry.
The Bottom Line
The biggest concern is that the analysts reduced their earnings per share estimates, suggesting business headwinds could lay ahead for Stadler Rail. Sadly, they also downgraded their revenue forecasts, but the business is still expected to grow at roughly the same rate as the industry itself. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.
Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. We have forecasts for Stadler Rail going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.
Don't forget that there may still be risks. For instance, we've identified 1 warning sign for Stadler Rail that you should be aware of.
Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
