Yahoo Finance Are Southwest Airlines Co.'s (NYSE:LUV) Mixed Financials The Reason For Its Gloomy Performance on The Stock Market?
Southwest Airlines (NYSE:LUV) has had a rough three months with its share price down 14%. It seems that the market might have completely ignored the positive aspects of the company's fundamentals and decided to weigh-in more on the negative aspects. Fundamentals usually dictate market outcomes so it makes sense to study the company's financials. Specifically, we decided to study Southwest Airlines' ROE in this article.
Return on equity or ROE is an important factor to be considered by a shareholder because it tells them how effectively their capital is being reinvested. Simply put, it is used to assess the profitability of a company in relation to its equity capital.
View our latest analysis for Southwest Airlines
How To Calculate Return On Equity?
The formula for return on equity is:
Return on Equity = Net Profit (from continuing operations) ÷ Shareholders' Equity
So, based on the above formula, the ROE for Southwest Airlines is:
3.9% = US$393m ÷ US$10b (Based on the trailing twelve months to March 2024).
The 'return' is the amount earned after tax over the last twelve months. That means that for every $1 worth of shareholders' equity, the company generated $0.04 in profit.
What Has ROE Got To Do With Earnings Growth?
So far, we've learned that ROE is a measure of a company's profitability. We now need to evaluate how much profit the company reinvests or "retains" for future growth which then gives us an idea about the growth potential of the company. Assuming everything else remains unchanged, the higher the ROE and profit retention, the higher the growth rate of a company compared to companies that don't necessarily bear these characteristics.
A Side By Side comparison of Southwest Airlines' Earnings Growth And 3.9% ROE
It is quite clear that Southwest Airlines' ROE is rather low. Not just that, even compared to the industry average of 9.5%, the company's ROE is entirely unremarkable. For this reason, Southwest Airlines' five year net income decline of 15% is not surprising given its lower ROE. We reckon that there could also be other factors at play here. For instance, the company has a very high payout ratio, or is faced with competitive pressures.
However, when we compared Southwest Airlines' growth with the industry we found that while the company's earnings have been shrinking, the industry has seen an earnings growth of 4.6% in the same period. This is quite worrisome.
Earnings growth is a huge factor in stock valuation. What investors need to determine next is if the expected earnings growth, or the lack of it, is already built into the share price. By doing so, they will have an idea if the stock is headed into clear blue waters or if swampy waters await. One good indicator of expected earnings growth is the P/E ratio which determines the price the market is willing to pay for a stock based on its earnings prospects. So, you may want to check if Southwest Airlines is trading on a high P/E or a low P/E, relative to its industry.
Is Southwest Airlines Efficiently Re-investing Its Profits?
In spite of a normal three-year median payout ratio of 32% (that is, a retention ratio of 68%), the fact that Southwest Airlines' earnings have shrunk is quite puzzling. So there might be other factors at play here which could potentially be hampering growth. For example, the business has faced some headwinds.
Additionally, Southwest Airlines has paid dividends over a period of at least ten years, which means that the company's management is determined to pay dividends even if it means little to no earnings growth. Based on the latest analysts' estimates, we found that the company's future payout ratio over the next three years is expected to hold steady at 31%. Still, forecasts suggest that Southwest Airlines' future ROE will rise to 12% even though the the company's payout ratio is not expected to change by much.
Summary
Overall, we have mixed feelings about Southwest Airlines. While the company does have a high rate of profit retention, its low rate of return is probably hampering its earnings growth. That being so, the latest industry analyst forecasts show that the analysts are expecting to see a huge improvement in the company's earnings growth rate. Are these analysts expectations based on the broad expectations for the industry, or on the company's fundamentals? Click here to be taken to our analyst's forecasts page for the company.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
