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Shareholders Of Mitchell Services (ASX:MSV) Must Be Happy With Their 132% Total Return

Simply Wall St

While Mitchell Services Limited (ASX:MSV) shareholders are probably generally happy, the stock hasn't had particularly good run recently, with the share price falling 28% in the last quarter. Looking further back, the stock has generated good profits over five years. It has returned a market beating 95% in that time. Unfortunately not all shareholders will have held it for the long term, so spare a thought for those caught in the 38% decline over the last twelve months.

View our latest analysis for Mitchell Services

To quote Buffett, 'Ships will sail around the world but the Flat Earth Society will flourish. There will continue to be wide discrepancies between price and value in the marketplace...' One imperfect but simple way to consider how the market perception of a company has shifted is to compare the change in the earnings per share (EPS) with the share price movement.

During the five years of share price growth, Mitchell Services moved from a loss to profitability. That would generally be considered a positive, so we'd expect the share price to be up.

The image below shows how EPS has tracked over time (if you click on the image you can see greater detail).

ASX:MSV Past and Future Earnings May 26th 2020

It's good to see that there was some significant insider buying in the last three months. That's a positive. On the other hand, we think the revenue and earnings trends are much more meaningful measures of the business. Dive deeper into the earnings by checking this interactive graph of Mitchell Services's earnings, revenue and cash flow.

What about the Total Shareholder Return (TSR)?

Investors should note that there's a difference between Mitchell Services's total shareholder return (TSR) and its share price change, which we've covered above. The TSR is a return calculation that accounts for the value of cash dividends (assuming that any dividend received was reinvested) and the calculated value of any discounted capital raisings and spin-offs. Dividends have been really beneficial for Mitchell Services shareholders, and that cash payout contributed to why its TSR of 132%, over the last 5 years, is better than the share price return.

A Different Perspective

While the broader market lost about 12% in the twelve months, Mitchell Services shareholders did even worse, losing 37%. However, it could simply be that the share price has been impacted by broader market jitters. It might be worth keeping an eye on the fundamentals, in case there's a good opportunity. On the bright side, long term shareholders have made money, with a gain of 18% per year over half a decade. It could be that the recent sell-off is an opportunity, so it may be worth checking the fundamental data for signs of a long term growth trend. While it is well worth considering the different impacts that market conditions can have on the share price, there are other factors that are even more important. Consider risks, for instance. Every company has them, and we've spotted 3 warning signs for Mitchell Services you should know about.

If you like to buy stocks alongside management, then you might just love this free list of companies. (Hint: insiders have been buying them).

Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on AU exchanges.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading.