RBA decision not 'the gift' you think. Finance expert's warning for millions of Aussies

If you’re struggling financially now, prepare to keep on struggling for at least the next six months. That’s the stark warning for Australians from financial expert David Koch after the pre-Christmas "gift" of a interest rate hold.

“What you see now, is what you are going to get for the first half of next year,” he told Yahoo Finance moments after the Reserve Bank (RBA) held the cash rate at 4.35 per cent.

The cash rate is still at the highest level it’s been since 2011. RBA governor Michele Bullock acknowledged in her announcement that “many households are experiencing a painful squeeze on their finances”, and Koch, nor a single economist from the Big Four banks, predict it will drop for another six or seven months.

“A lot of people are thinking, ‘If this is a peak in interest rates, they are going to come down quickly and I am going to get more money in my pocket’. But I don't think that's going to happen,” the Compare the Market economic director said.

“You're going to have to tough it out and it's going to be as tough in the first half of next year as it is now.”

A staggering 79 per cent of Australians - which is millions of us - feel under “extreme” financial pressure, according to Finder's Cost Of Living Pressure Gauge.

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So, when is it going to get easier?

Well, Bullock said there were currently Australians benefiting from “rising house prices, substantial savings buffers and higher interest income”. Others are battling rising costs of energy bills, groceries, the pressure of Christmas, and record rents.

Mortgage holders on average have already paid $24,000 extra interest as a result of 13 rate hikes since May last year, and almost half a million more will roll off low fixed rates to higher variable rates next year.

But there is a big indicator for 2024 before the next RBA meeting on February 7.

“Mark January 31 in your diary because that will determine interest rates for the entire year,” Koch said.

That’s the date the Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for the December quarter is released, which Koch said would give us a “good idea” whether the RBA would continue its aggressive attack on inflation.

“There’s not been a more important inflationary figure in two years,” he said. “If it comes in significantly below expectations, then that changes everyone's view on when a cut could come. I'm of the view that interest rates are not going to get any worse. But they're not going to get any better for quite a while.”