Yahoo Finance Party Time: Brokers Just Made Major Increases To Their Triple Flag Precious Metals Corp. (TSE:TFPM) Earnings Forecasts
Triple Flag Precious Metals Corp. (TSE:TFPM) shareholders will have a reason to smile today, with the analysts making substantial upgrades to this year's forecasts. The analysts greatly increased their revenue estimates, suggesting a stark improvement in business fundamentals. The stock price has risen 5.6% to CA$21.61 over the past week, suggesting investors are becoming more optimistic. It will be interesting to see if this latest upgrade is enough to kickstart further buying interest in the stock.
Following the upgrade, the latest consensus from Triple Flag Precious Metals' six analysts is for revenues of US$248m in 2024, which would reflect a huge 22% improvement in sales compared to the last 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to bounce 183% to US$0.51. Prior to this update, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of US$221m and earnings per share (EPS) of US$0.39 in 2024. There has definitely been an improvement in perception recently, with the analysts substantially increasing both their earnings and revenue estimates.
See our latest analysis for Triple Flag Precious Metals
Although the analysts have upgraded their earnings estimates, there was no change to the consensus price target of US$18.04, suggesting that the forecast performance does not have a long term impact on the company's valuation. It could also be instructive to look at the range of analyst estimates, to evaluate how different the outlier opinions are from the mean. The most optimistic Triple Flag Precious Metals analyst has a price target of US$22.79 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at US$15.59. Analysts definitely have varying views on the business, but the spread of estimates is not wide enough in our view to suggest that extreme outcomes could await Triple Flag Precious Metals shareholders.
Looking at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can make sense of these forecasts is to see how they measure up against both past performance and industry growth estimates. The period to the end of 2024 brings more of the same, according to the analysts, with revenue forecast to display 22% growth on an annualised basis. That is in line with its 23% annual growth over the past five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in a similar industry are forecast to see their revenues grow 11% per year. So although Triple Flag Precious Metals is expected to maintain its revenue growth rate, it's definitely expected to grow faster than the wider industry.
The Bottom Line
The most important thing to take away from this upgrade is that analysts upgraded their earnings per share estimates for this year, expecting improving business conditions. They also upgraded their revenue estimates for this year, and sales are expected to grow faster than the wider market. Some investors might be disappointed to see that the price target is unchanged, but we feel that improving fundamentals are usually a positive - assuming these forecasts are met! So Triple Flag Precious Metals could be a good candidate for more research.
Still, the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. We have estimates - from multiple Triple Flag Precious Metals analysts - going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.
Of course, seeing company management invest large sums of money in a stock can be just as useful as knowing whether analysts are upgrading their estimates. So you may also wish to search this free list of stocks that insiders are buying.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
