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Are Options Traders Betting on a Big Move in Chevron (CVX) Stock?

Zacks Equity Research

Investors in Chevron Corporation CVX need to pay close attention to the stock based on moves in the options market lately. That is because the May 8, 2020 $45.00 Put had some of the highest implied volatility of all equity options today.

What is Implied Volatility?

Implied volatility shows how much movement the market is expecting in the future. Options with high levels of implied volatility suggest that investors in the underlying stocks are expecting a big move in one direction or the other. It could also mean there is an event coming up soon that may cause a big rally or a huge sell off. However, implied volatility is only one piece of the puzzle when putting together an options trading strategy.

What do the Analysts Think?

Clearly, options traders are pricing in a big move for Chevron shares, but what is the fundamental picture for the company? Currently, Chevron is a Zacks Rank #5 (Strong Sell) in the Oil and Gas - Integrated - International industry that ranks in the Bottom 6% of our Zacks Industry Rank. Over the last 30 days, no analyst has increased the earnings estimates for the current quarter, while seven have revised their estimates downward. The net effect has taken our Zacks Consensus Estimate for the current quarter from $1.28 per share to 75 cents in that period.

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Given the way analysts feel about Chevron right now, this huge implied volatility could mean there’s a trade developing. Often times, options traders look for options with high levels of implied volatility to sell premium. This is a strategy many seasoned traders use because it captures decay. At expiration, the hope for these traders is that the underlying stock does not move as much as originally expected.

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Zacks Investment Research