Yahoo Finance Is There An Opportunity With Adeia Inc.'s (NASDAQ:ADEA) 23% Undervaluation?
Key Insights
Adeia's estimated fair value is US$13.84 based on 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity
Adeia is estimated to be 23% undervalued based on current share price of US$10.65
Our fair value estimate is 13% higher than Adeia's analyst price target of US$15.67
In this article we are going to estimate the intrinsic value of Adeia Inc. (NASDAQ:ADEA) by taking the expected future cash flows and discounting them to today's value. One way to achieve this is by employing the Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model. Before you think you won't be able to understand it, just read on! It's actually much less complex than you'd imagine.
Companies can be valued in a lot of ways, so we would point out that a DCF is not perfect for every situation. Anyone interested in learning a bit more about intrinsic value should have a read of the Simply Wall St analysis model.
See our latest analysis for Adeia
Step By Step Through The Calculation
We are going to use a two-stage DCF model, which, as the name states, takes into account two stages of growth. The first stage is generally a higher growth period which levels off heading towards the terminal value, captured in the second 'steady growth' period. To begin with, we have to get estimates of the next ten years of cash flows. Seeing as no analyst estimates of free cash flow are available to us, we have extrapolate the previous free cash flow (FCF) from the company's last reported value. We assume companies with shrinking free cash flow will slow their rate of shrinkage, and that companies with growing free cash flow will see their growth rate slow, over this period. We do this to reflect that growth tends to slow more in the early years than it does in later years.
Generally we assume that a dollar today is more valuable than a dollar in the future, and so the sum of these future cash flows is then discounted to today's value:
10-year free cash flow (FCF) estimate
2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | |
Levered FCF ($, Millions) | US$146.8m | US$135.8m | US$129.5m | US$126.1m | US$124.6m | US$124.3m | US$124.9m | US$126.0m | US$127.6m | US$129.6m |
Growth Rate Estimate Source | Est @ -11.61% | Est @ -7.50% | Est @ -4.63% | Est @ -2.62% | Est @ -1.21% | Est @ -0.23% | Est @ 0.46% | Est @ 0.94% | Est @ 1.28% | Est @ 1.52% |
Present Value ($, Millions) Discounted @ 10.0% | US$133 | US$112 | US$97.4 | US$86.3 | US$77.5 | US$70.3 | US$64.2 | US$59.0 | US$54.3 | US$50.2 |
("Est" = FCF growth rate estimated by Simply Wall St)
Present Value of 10-year Cash Flow (PVCF) = US$805m
The second stage is also known as Terminal Value, this is the business's cash flow after the first stage. The Gordon Growth formula is used to calculate Terminal Value at a future annual growth rate equal to the 5-year average of the 10-year government bond yield of 2.1%. We discount the terminal cash flows to today's value at a cost of equity of 10.0%.
Terminal Value (TV)= FCF2032 × (1 + g) ÷ (r – g) = US$130m× (1 + 2.1%) ÷ (10.0%– 2.1%) = US$1.7b
Present Value of Terminal Value (PVTV)= TV / (1 + r)10= US$1.7b÷ ( 1 + 10.0%)10= US$649m
The total value, or equity value, is then the sum of the present value of the future cash flows, which in this case is US$1.5b. In the final step we divide the equity value by the number of shares outstanding. Relative to the current share price of US$10.7, the company appears a touch undervalued at a 23% discount to where the stock price trades currently. The assumptions in any calculation have a big impact on the valuation, so it is better to view this as a rough estimate, not precise down to the last cent.
The Assumptions
Now the most important inputs to a discounted cash flow are the discount rate, and of course, the actual cash flows. If you don't agree with these result, have a go at the calculation yourself and play with the assumptions. The DCF also does not consider the possible cyclicality of an industry, or a company's future capital requirements, so it does not give a full picture of a company's potential performance. Given that we are looking at Adeia as potential shareholders, the cost of equity is used as the discount rate, rather than the cost of capital (or weighted average cost of capital, WACC) which accounts for debt. In this calculation we've used 10.0%, which is based on a levered beta of 1.328. Beta is a measure of a stock's volatility, compared to the market as a whole. We get our beta from the industry average beta of globally comparable companies, with an imposed limit between 0.8 and 2.0, which is a reasonable range for a stable business.
SWOT Analysis for Adeia
Strength
Debt is well covered by earnings and cashflows.
Dividends are covered by earnings and cash flows.
Weakness
Dividend is low compared to the top 25% of dividend payers in the Software market.
Opportunity
Good value based on P/E ratio and estimated fair value.
Threat
Annual earnings are forecast to decline for the next 2 years.
Moving On:
Valuation is only one side of the coin in terms of building your investment thesis, and it ideally won't be the sole piece of analysis you scrutinize for a company. The DCF model is not a perfect stock valuation tool. Preferably you'd apply different cases and assumptions and see how they would impact the company's valuation. For example, changes in the company's cost of equity or the risk free rate can significantly impact the valuation. Why is the intrinsic value higher than the current share price? For Adeia, there are three additional aspects you should consider:
Risks: Case in point, we've spotted 3 warning signs for Adeia you should be aware of, and 1 of them can't be ignored.
Future Earnings: How does ADEA's growth rate compare to its peers and the wider market? Dig deeper into the analyst consensus number for the upcoming years by interacting with our free analyst growth expectation chart.
Other Solid Businesses: Low debt, high returns on equity and good past performance are fundamental to a strong business. Why not explore our interactive list of stocks with solid business fundamentals to see if there are other companies you may not have considered!
PS. The Simply Wall St app conducts a discounted cash flow valuation for every stock on the NASDAQGS every day. If you want to find the calculation for other stocks just search here.
Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
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