NZD/USD: Kiwi Trades Lower Folowing Better Then Expected Trade Data

New Zealand Trade Balance beat expectations, and reports and surplus of NZ$ 331M for the month of June. The monthly surplus took a bite out of the twelve month deficit bringing the figure to –NZ$747M, the NZDUSD declined on theannouncement. Despite the fact that today’s trade data beat expectation exports still declined by NZ$10M to print NZ$4.20B for June, and the May figure was revised lower to NZ$4.21B.

NZDUSD_Kiwi_Trades_Lower_Folowing_Better_Then_Expected_body_Picture_5.png, NZD/USD: Kiwi Trades Lower Folowing Better Then Expected Trade Data

5min GMT MarketScope Chart Created by Adrian Robles

Curiously the Kiwi declined 12 pips following the release of the better than expected trade data. The pair had been declining for the past few trading secession, and today it fell below the 0.382 Fib level (drawn from the February 29th high to the June 1st low).

The New Zealand twelve month Trade Balance has been generally declining since November 2012 and crossed over into negative territory in April. New Zealand exports, which is an important component of the New Zealand economy, has overall increased since the beginning of the year. Though one major concern market participants have when trading the NZD is that an economic slowdown in China is going to negatively impact New Zealand exports. From the way the Kiwi fell following the release of the modestly positive data may speak to the degree that traders are concerned about the uncertainty surrounding exports.