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NZD/USD Holds Resistance Ahead of RBNZ- FOMC Spurs Relief USD Bounce
DailyFX.com -
Talking Points:
- NZD/USD Retail FX Remains Net-Short Ahead of RBNZ.
- USDOLLAR Threatens Key Support Ahead of 1Q GDP, Fed Interest Rate Decision.
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NZD/USD
Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0
NZD/USD continues to threaten the downward trend carried over from October as the bullish RSI momentum gathers pace; close above 0.7730 (78.6% retracement) may open up the 2015 high (0.7888).
Even though the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) is widely expected to keep the cash rate at 3.50%, the fresh batch of commentary from Governor Graeme Wheeler may dampen the appeal of the higher-yielding currency should the central bank head toughen the verbal intervention on the kiwi.
Nevertheless, DailyFX Speculative Sentiment Index (SSI) shows retail crowd remains net-short NZD/USD since April 27, with the ratio currently sitting at -1.54.
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Read More:
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USDOLLAR(Ticker: USDollar):
Index | Last | High | Low | Daily Change (%) | Daily Range (% of ATR) |
DJ-FXCM Dollar Index | 11823.55 | 11902.58 | 11819.46 | -0.61 | 114.09% |
Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0
Dow Jones-FXCM U.S. Dollar holds February low (11,736) as the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) stays on course to normalize monetary policy & anticipates a stronger recovery later this year.
Seems as though the Fed is buying more time amid the weakness in the first-quarter GDP figure, but the ongoing series of lower highs & lows in price raises the risk for a further decline in the greenback.
Failed attempts to break/close below 11,721 (38.2% retracement) to 11,745 (50.0% retracement) may produce a near-term bound in USDOLLAR, but the downside remains favorable as long as the bearish RSI momentum remains in play.Join DailyFX on Demand for Real-Time SSI Updates!
Release | GMT | Expected | Actual |
MBA Mortgage Applications (APR 24) | 11:00 | -- | |
Gross Domestic Product (Annualized) (QoQ) (1Q A) | 12:30 | 1.0% | 0.2% |
Personal Consumption (1Q A) | 12:30 | 1.7% | 1.9% |
GDP Price Index (1Q A) | 12:30 | 0.5% | -0.1% |
Core Personal Consumption Expenditure (QoQ) (1Q A) | 12:30 | 1.0% | 0.9% |
Pending Home Sales (MoM) (MAR) | 10:00 | 1.0% | 1.1% |
Pending Home Sales n.s.a. (YoY) (MAR) | 10:00 | 5.1% | 13.4% |
Federal Open Market Committee Interest Rate Decision | 16:00 | 0.25% | 0.25% |
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--- Written by David Song, Currency Analyst
To contact David, e-mail dsong@dailyfx.com. Follow me on Twitter at @DavidJSong.
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