Good Drinks Australia Limited (ASX:GDA), might not be a large cap stock, but it saw significant share price movement during recent months on the ASX, rising to highs of AU$0.82 and falling to the lows of AU$0.70. Some share price movements can give investors a better opportunity to enter into the stock, and potentially buy at a lower price. A question to answer is whether Good Drinks Australia's current trading price of AU$0.71 reflective of the actual value of the small-cap? Or is it currently undervalued, providing us with the opportunity to buy? Let’s take a look at Good Drinks Australia’s outlook and value based on the most recent financial data to see if there are any catalysts for a price change.
What is Good Drinks Australia worth?
The share price seems sensible at the moment according to my price multiple model, where I compare the company's price-to-earnings ratio to the industry average. In this instance, I’ve used the price-to-earnings (PE) ratio given that there is not enough information to reliably forecast the stock’s cash flows. I find that Good Drinks Australia’s ratio of 28.58x is trading slightly above its industry peers’ ratio of 24.59x, which means if you buy Good Drinks Australia today, you’d be paying a relatively reasonable price for it. And if you believe that Good Drinks Australia should be trading at this level in the long run, then there should only be a fairly immaterial downside vs other industry peers. Although, there may be an opportunity to buy in the future. This is because Good Drinks Australia’s beta (a measure of share price volatility) is high, meaning its price movements will be exaggerated relative to the rest of the market. If the market is bearish, the company’s shares will likely fall by more than the rest of the market, providing a prime buying opportunity.
What kind of growth will Good Drinks Australia generate?
Investors looking for growth in their portfolio may want to consider the prospects of a company before buying its shares. Buying a great company with a robust outlook at a cheap price is always a good investment, so let’s also take a look at the company's future expectations. Good Drinks Australia's revenue growth are expected to be in the teens in the upcoming year, indicating a solid future ahead. Unless expenses grow at the same level, or higher, this top-line growth should lead to robust cash flows, feeding into a higher share value.
What this means for you:
Are you a shareholder? GDA’s optimistic future growth appears to have been factored into the current share price, with shares trading around industry price multiples. However, there are also other important factors which we haven’t considered today, such as the track record of its management team. Have these factors changed since the last time you looked at GDA? Will you have enough confidence to invest in the company should the price drop below the industry PE ratio?
Are you a potential investor? If you’ve been keeping an eye on GDA, now may not be the most optimal time to buy, given it is trading around industry price multiples. However, the optimistic forecast is encouraging for GDA, which means it’s worth diving deeper into other factors such as the strength of its balance sheet, in order to take advantage of the next price drop.
Keep in mind, when it comes to analysing a stock it's worth noting the risks involved. For example, we've discovered 1 warning sign that you should run your eye over to get a better picture of Good Drinks Australia.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.