Yahoo Finance NFL Week 14 betting roundup: Chiefs fail to cover spread again, but public finally has winning weekend
The public continues to heavily back the Kansas City Chiefs, but they have been consistently failing to cover the spread.
The defending Super Bowl champions were seven-point favorites on the road against the Miami Dolphins on Sunday and failed to cover despite entering the fourth quarter with a 30-10 lead.
Tua Tagovailoa led two fourth-quarter touchdown drives for the Dolphins, cutting Kansas City’s lead to 30-24 with 4:15 to play. Even after that, it looked like Chiefs bettors were in the clear when they added a field goal to make it 33-24 with 1:08 to play.
But the Dolphins were not finished. Down two scores, they advanced into Chiefs territory and sent out kicker Jason Sanders for a 44-yard field goal try. He drilled it with just 16 seconds remaining and the Dolphins ended up losing 33-27 — inside the seven-point number.
It was a brutal loss for Chiefs backers. There were a lot of them. At BetMGM, the Chiefs received 65% of the bets and 62% of the money. They have now failed to cover the spread in five straight games and are now below .500 ATS on the season at 6-7. The Chiefs finished 13-5-1 ATS in 2019.
On the other side, Miami is now an NFL-best 10-3 against the spread in 2020. The Dolphins have covered in eight of their last nine games.
A rare winning Sunday for the public
The betting public finally had a winning NFL Sunday.
BetMGM cleaned up throughout the month of November, but Week 14 swung in the favor of the public thanks to a bevy of favorites covering the spread on Sunday.
Jeff Stoneback, the Director of Trading for MGM Resorts, told Yahoo Sports that the three biggest winners of the day for the public were the Tennessee Titans (-7.5), Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-6.5) and Arizona Cardinals (-3).
“Those three helped the bettors end their losing streak so finally one win in the books for the bettors. It’s been a rough streak for them,” Stoneback told Yahoo Sports.
The Titans easily covered the 7.5-point spread on the road against the Jacksonville Jaguars, helping several parlays get across the finish line. Stoneback said one bettor had two two-team $100,000 parlays that included the Titans. Overall, 79% of the bets made and 89% of the money wagered on that game at MGM was placed on the Titans
Another bettor at MGM bet $150,000 on a three-team moneyline parlay with the Titans (-350), Green Bay Packers (-420) and Seattle Seahawks (-1300). The Titans and Seahawks won easily while the Packers held off the Detroit Lions in the fourth quarter and the bettor won $107,152.85.
Of the 13 games played on Sunday, favorites covered the spread in eight of them. When favorites cover the spread, it’s usually a positive day for the public.
Eagles, Broncos come through for the house
There were five underdogs who covered the spread on Sunday, and three of them won outright: the Denver Broncos, Philadelphia Eagles and Washington Football Team.
After ending the Pittsburgh Steelers’ undefeated season last week, Washington was a popular underdog among bettors, receiving 66% of the bets and 63% of the money as three-point dogs on the road against the San Francisco 49ers. Washington ended up winning 23-15 behind a strong defensive effort.
The Broncos and Eagles, though, were big winners for the sportsbook.
The Broncos were four-point underdogs on the road against the Carolina Panthers and ended up winning 32-27. At BetMGM, the wagers (67%) and money (77%) overwhelmingly went toward the Panthers, including a $204,000 bet on the Panthers -3.
The figures were even more lopsided against the Eagles, who were 7.5-point home underdogs against the New Orleans Saints. With rookie quarterback Jalen Hurts making his first career start, the Eagles pulled off the biggest upset of the day, winning 24-21.
The Saints received 75% of the bets and a whopping 85% percent of the money, including a losing $192,000 bet on the Saints -7. Stoneback told Yahoo Sports that the Eagles were the “big winner” of the day.
“That was a large win for the book,” Stoneback said.
Another big underdog for MGM on Sunday was the Detroit Lions, who closed as 8.5-point home underdogs against the Green Bay Packers. The game was tied at halftime but the Packers pulled away in the second half. Green Bay had fourth-quarter leads of 28-14 and 31-21, but the Lions snuck in the back door and covered the spread with a field goal that made it 31-24 with 1:49 to play.
Considering 84% of the money and 79% of the bets were placed on Green Bay, that field goal was very important for the sportsbook.
For one bettor, though, that field goal was inconsequential. The bettor had $225,000 on the Packers, but bought two points to make his bet Packers -6.5 at -180 odds. The bettor won $125,000.
Bills continue to cover, cash big bets
Another team that has been hot against the spread is the Buffalo Bills.
The Bills played the Pittsburgh Steelers on “Sunday Night Football” and the game opened as a pick ‘em. As the week progressed, the spread swung toward the Bills, who closed as two-point favorites.
MGM received two six-figure bets on the Bills: $220,000 on the Bills -1.5 and another $110,000 bet on the Bills -2. Buffalo covered easily in a 26-15 victory and have now covered in five straight games.
The Bills are now 8-5 against the spread this season, tied with seven others for the second-best ATS record in the NFL. The Bills have performed especially well as a home favorite, going 4-1 after Sunday night.
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