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NFL Week 10 odds: An overwhelming percentage of bets on Colts vs. Titans caused a big line move

Frank Schwab
·2-min read

Maybe everyone is buying into road teams and underdogs in the NFL.

Road teams and underdogs are covering at a high rate this season, and that will be tested on Thursday night. There have been so many bets on the Indianapolis Colts in their AFC South showdown at the Tennessee Titans that the line has moved 3.5 points.

And the underdog Colts are no longer the underdog.

Colts getting most of the bets

At BetMGM, a staggering percentage of bets are coming in on the Colts. Of the bets on the point spread, 80.9% are on the Colts. And 83.4% of the money on the point spread is on Indianapolis, too.

That drove the type of line move you won’t see often in the NFL. Tennessee was the 2.5-point favorite when the line opened. Now, the Colts are 1-point favorites.

Technically, if the Colts cover, they won’t be adding to the success of underdogs this NFL season, because it appears they will close as the favorite. Underdogs are 76-57 against the spread this season, a 57.1 winning percentage.

The Titans are 6-2 this season, and there’s not a lot of faith in them on Thursday night. But there was a lot of faith in the Colts in the betting market last week, and it didn’t go as hoped.

Indianapolis Colts outside linebacker Darius Leonard (53) leads his team into a huge game against the Titans. (AP Photo/Darron Cummings)
Indianapolis Colts outside linebacker Darius Leonard (53) leads his team into a huge game against the Titans. (AP Photo/Darron Cummings)

Sportsbooks rooting for Titans

The Colts were a big play for bettors last week, and that didn’t work out. The line went from Colts +3.5 to -1 when they played the Baltimore Ravens, and the Ravens won 24-10.

Usually, bettors don’t want to back a team that just lost them money.

“That hasn’t stopped bettors from jumping back on the Colts bandwagon though,” BetMGM sportsbook manager Matt Cosgriff said. “Although we’ve seen significant action on the Titans since launching in Tennessee, we’ll be looking for Indianapolis to let bettors down once again.”

This is a big AFC South game, with the winner taking a huge step toward winning the division. It’ll be a big one for bettors, too, with most of them on the same side.

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