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NFL odds: After big Week 16, Aaron Rodgers is now the betting favorite to win MVP

Frank Schwab
·2-min read

Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes had a huge lead in the MVP voting just a few weeks ago. Now he trails.

Green Bay Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers has overtaken Mahomes as the MVP favorite in the odds posted at BetMGM. Rodgers is -150 to win MVP. Mahomes is +160. Buffalo Bills quarterback Josh Allen is a distant third at +1800.

(UPDATE: With news on Monday that Chiefs coach Andy Reid plans to rest starters in Week 17, Rodgers’ odds changed again, moving to -225.)

It’s a stunning turnaround considering the lead Mahomes had in the odds just a few weeks ago. But Rodgers’ play has been tough to deny.

Aaron Rodgers takes the MVP lead

Mahomes topped out at -400 odds to win the MVP after Week 12 games. Implied odds give Mahomes an 80 percent chance to win. Even last week, Mahomes was still the betting favorite.

Given that Mahomes was playing very well and quarterbacking the NFL’s unquestioned top team this regular season, it seemed like the odds were justified. It was going to be very hard to catch him.

Rodgers has simply outplayed Mahomes down the stretch. Not that Mahomes has been bad, but he has had a quiet stretch by his standards. A three-interception game didn’t help. And Rodgers has been amazing.

Over the Packers’ last five games, Rodgers has 15 touchdowns and one interception. He has a 127.9 passer rating. That’s how you turn +500 odds into -150 before Week 17.

Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers has overtaken Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes as the betting favorite for NFL MVP. (Photo by Dylan Buell/Getty Images)
Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers has overtaken Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes as the betting favorite for NFL MVP. (Photo by Dylan Buell/Getty Images)

Can Patrick Mahomes catch Rodgers?

Mahomes would need to have a monster game in Week 17 to win MVP. The Chiefs get a good matchup against the Los Angeles Chargers but don’t have anything to play for. They have the No. 1 seed in the AFC wrapped up and Andy Reid isn’t going to risk the health of his starters to play them the whole game. It’s hard to figure out Mahomes’ path to having the type of game that could flip those odds.

Rodgers has a big game in Week 17. The Packers can clinch the No. 1 seed in the NFC against the Chicago Bears, who can make the playoffs with a win. If Rodgers has a bad game against the Bears perhaps that would cost him some votes, but it seems unlikely.

Rodgers has two MVPs, and getting a third at age 37 seemed unlikely. It was a long shot in the odds, too. But Rodgers has taken over as the favorite, and it will be hard to beat him at this point.

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