MGIC (MTG) Down 8.6% Since Last Earnings Report: Can It Rebound?

A month has gone by since the last earnings report for MGIC Investment (MTG). Shares have lost about 8.6% in that time frame, underperforming the S&P 500.

Will the recent negative trend continue leading up to its next earnings release, or is MGIC due for a breakout? Before we dive into how investors and analysts have reacted as of late, let's take a quick look at its most recent earnings report in order to get a better handle on the important catalysts.

MGIC Investment Q2 Earnings Beat Estimates

MGIC Investment reported second-quarter 2019 operating net income per share of 46 cents, which beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 12.2%. However, the bottom line declined 6.2% year over year.

Insurance in force increased largely driven by strong persistency and the addition of $14.9 billion of high-quality new insurance writings.

The company witnessed lower delinquency attributable to a favorable operating environment, driven by better employment, wage growth and higher housing demand. The quarter also witnessed lower credit losses.

Operational Update    

MGIC Investment recorded total operating revenues of $292 million, which increased 2.8% year over year on higher net investment income (up 23%) and premiums earned (up 0.1%).

Net premiums earned reflect increase in ceded premiums that offset an increase in premiums from a higher average insurance in force and a decrease in premium refunds from lower claim activity. It also reflects an increase in premiums from single premium policy cancellations.

Insurance in force was $213.9 billion as of Jun 30, 2019, up 6.6% year over year.

Persistency, the percentage of insurance remaining in force from one year prior, was 80.8% as of Jun 30, 2019, up 70 basis points (bps) year over year.

New insurance written was $14.9 billion, up 12.9% year over year.

Net paid claims amounted to $55 million, down 40% year over year. The number of claims received declined 17.3%, reflecting continued declines in delinquency inventory.

Net underwriting and other expenses totaled $45.7 million, up 2.3% year over year. Total loss and expenses surged 82.3% on higher losses incurred.

In the quarter under review, loss ratio was 8.8%, compared with (5.4%) in the year-ago quarter. Underwriting expense ratio of 17.6% deteriorated 120 bps year over year.

Financial Update

Book value per share, a measure of net worth, grew nearly 6% year over year to $11.39 as of Jun 30, 2019.

MGIC Investment had $5.7 billion in cash and investments, up 11.9% year over year.

Risk-to-capital ratio was 10.0:1 as of Jun 30, 2019, flat year over year.

Debt-to-total capital ratio was 17% at the end of the quarter, down 100 bps from first-quarter end.

The company paid $70 million in dividend to the holding company. Also, the company repurchased shares worth $24.8 million.

How Have Estimates Been Moving Since Then?

It turns out, fresh estimates have trended upward during the past month.

VGM Scores

Currently, MGIC has a subpar Growth Score of D, though it is lagging a bit on the Momentum Score front with an F. However, the stock was allocated a grade of A on the value side, putting it in the top 20% for this investment strategy.

Overall, the stock has an aggregate VGM Score of C. If you aren't focused on one strategy, this score is the one you should be interested in.

Outlook

Estimates have been trending upward for the stock, and the magnitude of this revision looks promising. It comes with little surprise MGIC has a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy). We expect an above average return from the stock in the next few months.

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