Major question RBA governor didn't want to answer as interest rate cut avoids 'all out attack' from mortgage holders
Yahoo Finance's live coverage of today's interest rate decision from the RBA has now concluded. Governor Michelle Bullock has cut the interest rate by 25 basis points to 3.6 per cent.
Bullock stunned Australians in July after she held the cash rate at 3.85 per cent despite strong inflation data and the notoriously-cautious Bullock risked an "all-out attack on the RBA's legitimacy" if she and the board held the rate at 3.85 per cent, Finder's Graham Cooke had warned.
Bullock became frustrated with concerns over productivity at her press conference, telling several journalists that should not be the focus and instead inflation and unemployment under control should be. Treasurer Jim Chalmers later downplayed the RBA's decision to lower the productivity growth forecast.
Macquarie Bank became the first Australian bank to announce it would be passing on the RBA's decision to lower interest rates. See below for all the banks to follow and all our updates throughout the day.
LIVE COVERAGE IS OVER 41 updates- FeaturedTom Flanagan
Bullock frustrated over repeat question
Michele Bullock appears to be increasingly frustrated over questions about productivity, particularly because she says it's something the RBA "ultimately doesn't have control over".
"I mean, everyone's got so many questions about productivity. The news here isn't productivity. The news here is that this is our third decrease in interest rates," she said.
"We've had 75 basis points now. And our inflation is gradually returning sustainably to the target and the unemployment rate is remaining pretty low in an historical sense. That is the good news here.
"And so far that doesn't suggest we've had interest rates too high. You might remember we were in this room maybe a year ago being criticised for not taking interest rates high enough. So I think that's the news that we should be focusing on."
The RBA did state in its monetary policy statement following the cut that Australia was facing "continued weak productivity outcomes".
That was concerning enough for the RBA to take he step of lowering its forecast for future productivity growth, from around 1 per cent per annum to just 0.7 per cent.
Labor MP Sally Sitou said concern over productivity was nothing new, telling ABC's Afternoon Briefing it had flatlined with the previous Coalition government. "It is something we are squarely focused on and that is why we have the Productivity Roundtable in a couple of weeks," she said.
- Belinda Grant-Geary
Fin
That's a wrap on the Yahoo Finance live blog coverage of the RBA's cash rate decision.
Interest rates have hit another two-year low, from 3.85 per cent to 3.6 per cent.
The RBA board unanimously voted to pass on interest rate relief and now the more important question for Australian borrowers is when they will see that passed on by their banks.
Major banks will trickle down savings to customers, with even single day delays allowing them to claw back millions of dollars.
Commonwealth Bank and ANZ will be the first of the Big Four to pass on interest rate cuts, but was outstripped by smaller players, like Macquarie Bank, which will cut in just days on August 15.
Governor Michele Bullock was peppered with questions about about a revision on Australia's productivity growth forecast, which was downgraded in the medium-term down to 0.7 per cent.
A larger cut wasn't discussed by the board, however, there were indications more could come later in the year — a forecast leading economists agree with.
In other finance news today:
There are still three more meetings to come for 2025 — in September, November and December.
That's three more opportunities for the RBA to cut pressure on borrowers.
We will be back with a live blog when the RBA monetary policy board makes their next decision on the cash rate on September 30.
- Tom Flanagan
Chalmers downplays productivity forecast change
Treasurer Jim Chalmers has been pressed on the RBA's decision to significantly slash its productivity growth forecast after Michele Bullock moved to brush off concerns.
ABC Afternoon Briefing host Patricia Karvelas said the move from the RBA appeared to be the Reserve Bank accepting that low productivity growth was now "baked into the system".
Chalmers reiterated Labor MP Sally Sitou's earlier comments that this is not a new problem.
"We're not talking about a challenge which has emerged in the last couple of years but decades," he said.
"It is also a challenge being felt in almost comparable economies around the world and so it is a very serious challenge. We have made it a very high priority to address it, we know you cannot turn around a two decade problem in a couple of years.
"It takes time, but we have put it at the very centre of our economic strategy."
- Belinda Grant-Geary
Which banks are passing on interest rate cut and when?
There's been a slew of moves made in the last couple of hours, all while we've been following the RBA governor's presser and experts reactions to the board's call.
Borrowers are probably most interested in what this all means for their bottom line.
So, here's a round up of the interest rate cut changes we know so far:
- Belinda Grant-Geary
NAB and ANZ cutting rates
NAB has posted details of when it will cut interest rates and we have another date in the mix.
It will reduce it's standard variable home loan interest rate by 0.25 per cent from August 25.
That's a couple days after CBA and a day before Westpac.
ANZ will match Commonwealth Bank, with a leading August 22 move.
NAB and ANZ are both banks you need to opt in for a change to your mortgage repayment so reach out if that's you.
Another interesting tidbit.
You may not know the bank unloan.
It was created by Commonwealth Bank in 2022 to offer "Australia’s first digital home loan with a discount that increases every year for up to 30 years".
Unlike the major bank that backs it, unloan will deliver its interest rate cut from today.
- Stewart Perrie
Commonwealth Bank, ANZ to deliver mortgage relief before Westpac as NAB customers await interest rate cut details
Commonwealth Bank (CBA) and ANZ will be the first of the Big Four banks to provide mortgage relief to customers on variable rates.
Homeowners with those two banks will receive a 0.25 per cent reduction on their interest repayments from August 22.
Westpac customers will have to wait until August 26 for the Reserve Bank's decision to flow to them.
Those with NAB are still in the dark about whether the bank will pass on the RBA's interest rate cut.
Canstar's data insights director, Sally Tindall, said CBA and ANZ's decision will likely pave the way for other lenders to follow in their footsteps.
“This move from Australia’s two biggest banks puts pressure on the entire mortgage market to do the right thing and pass this RBA cut on in full to variable customers," she said.
“After three cuts this year, many borrowers will finally start to feel some breathing room, even if repayments are still far higher than they were two years ago.
“Many smaller banks are unlikely to make their post-RBA announcement straight away, so keep an eye on what your lender announces and make sure you get the rate cut you deserve.
- Tom Flanagan
Bullock stands by July hold
There was plenty of surprise and criticism over the RBA's decision in July to hold the cash rate, but Michele Bullock says in hindsight it was the right call.
She said it gave the board the time to pause and assess "volatile" numbers and see if anything had been "underestimated".
She was then asked if the three board members who voted to cut last month delivered a "told you so" moment this meeting.
Laughing with the room, Bullock said that wasn't the case.
- Tom Flanagan
RBA doesn't have a target rate
Michele Bullock has stressed there isn't a target rate the RBA is aiming for, but did point to its forecasts suggesting there will be more cuts.
"We don't have a point estimate for where we might end up," she said.
"You'll note that in the forecasts we have inflation coming back down to target and the unemployment rate remaining where it is with a couple of more cash rate cuts in there. That's the best sort of guess.
"But things can change. And the board has to be taking things meeting by meeting."
Michele Bullock, as always, remained cautious despite delivering a rate cut. Source: ABC - Belinda Grant-Geary
Westpac follows suit with delayed rate cut
Westpac has joined the rate cut madness.
CBA customers will be able to opt into interest relief a few days earlier.
Westpac won't pass their 0.25 per cent cut on to new and existing members until following Tuesday, on August 26.
That's the same day RACQ Bank is giving their customers the cut.
The double-edged sword now emerges.
Westpac also noted it would decrease interest rates for deposit savers — a move they are able to do faster than dishing out relief.
- Tom Flanagan
Bullock says we might not need that many cuts
Michele Bullock is now addressing media and while millions of homeowners will have welcomed today's decision, she's started by pouring cold water over hopes of future rate cuts.
"Because we didn't take rates as high as some other countries, it may be that we don't need to reduce rates as much either," she said.
Unsurprisingly then, Bullock revealed a 50 basis points cut was not considered.
- Tamika Seeto
Warning over further rate cuts
With all this talk of further rate cuts, one expert has warned of there could be downsides if the RBA is too trigger happy.
“Too many rate cuts run the risk of increasing inflation and possibly over-heating the property market, making it harder for first home buyers,” VanEck Head of Investments & Capital Markets Russel Chesler said.
“National dwelling values rose by 0.6 per cent in July, making the sixth straight month of gains, with every capital city recording a rise in property prices for the month, according to the latest data from Cotality.
“There has also been growth in consumer spending, with the ABS reporting four straight quarters of volume growth in retail sales.”
CoreLogic research director Tim Lawless said another rate cut could "further energise housing demand", but he thinks affordability pressures will ultimately "keep gains in check".
Markets are predicting another two cuts by March next year, but Chesler thinks it could be "getting ahead of itself”.
“Until the unemployment rate starts trending higher, and the trimmed mean inflation gets closer to the 2 per cent mark, we don't see any cause to expect further rate cuts for this year,” he said.
- Belinda Grant-Geary
More lenders pass on cut
Commonwealth Bank is the first of the Big Four to announce its interest rate move for borrowers.
Australia's biggest home loan lender will pass the cut on in full — but there's a small catch.
It won't as quickly as competitors.
Variable home loan interest rates will be reduced by 0.25 per cent from August 22.
That's a week after Macquarie.
Smaller lender Athena Home Loans have boasted they will reduce rates "faster than a seagull on a chippy" — applying the reduction from today.
Athena Home Loans are immediately passing on rate cuts. · Athena Home Loans "No waiting. No begging. No 'we’ll think about it'. Just instant action - the Athena way. Because an RBA cut should mean money back in your pocket immediately," Athena Home Loans said.
It's also worth noting that if you bank with CBA and want that extra cash, you do need to contact the bank to ask them to reduce your repayments.
- Tom Flanagan
Australians haven't seen a rate this low in over two years
Let's take a look at our updated line chart now. And it's a pretty sight for all you mortgage holders, with the rate's downward trajectory now well established.
With the cash rate at 3.6 per cent, we're at a level not seen since April 2023, more than two years ago.
Since the turn of the year, we're roughly averaging one cut a quarter. I'm sure plenty of you out there will wish that continues for a fair bit longer.
- Tamika Seeto
'Better late than never'
Australian economist Stephen Koukoulas said the August rate cut was “better late than never” and he thinks the central bank has indicated there are more cuts to come.
“The RBA indicated that the path for inflation being on target is still consistent with an assumed trajectory of lower interest rates,” the managing director of Market Economics said.
“That implies that we are going to see the cash rate down to around about 3 per cent by late this year, early 2026.
”That would translate to two or three more interest rate cuts.Of the major banks, Westpac has predicted three more cuts in this cycle and NAB two.
"CBA and ANZ think there is just one more cut to come.
All in all, Koukoulas said there were “no surprises” in the RBA’s decision today, following falling inflation figures.
You can watch his full take below.
- Belinda Grant-Geary
Will your bank cut interest rates?
We have our eyes peeled for the big banks to make a move on interest rate cuts - it's only Macquarie at this stage.
Scott Kuru, the CEO of Freedom Property Investors, said the RBA's move "doesn’t mean retail banks are going to play ball".
“In the past week National Australia Bank has gone out ahead of the central bank and cut fixed term rates by a whole 0.25 per cent, taking its two-year-fixed rate down to a market-leading 5.19 per cent.”
“At the same time, we’ve actually seen ANZ Bank increase the rate on its ANZ Plus variable home loan for new customers by 0.16 per cent to 5.75 per cent and end cashbacks for households who refinance.”
On the other hand, Money.com.au’s mortgage expert Debbie Hay said the delay from the July meeting had put more pressure on the banks to pass on cuts.
“There’s greater scrutiny on lenders this time around because borrowers were already expecting relief last month and they didn’t get it," Hay said.
"Following the false start in July, all eyes will be on the banks to pass on this rate cut in full and quickly.
"Not doing so would be a PR nightmare for any lender in the current climate."
- Belinda Grant-Geary
Will this be the last interest rate cut for the year?
Not to get ahead of ourselves here, but readers have questioned whether this cut will be the last we see in 2025.
Vanguard senior economist Grant Feng doesn't think so, predicting the cash rate to hit 3.35 per cent by the end of this year.
“With the labour market still tight, upward pressure on costs is expected to persist, suggesting that the disinflation process will be gradual,” he said.
“Given these dynamics, we expect the RBA to maintain a cautiously dovish stance, with further rate cuts likely to be measured and incremental.”
There are three more meetings of the cash rate board this year — September, November and December.
The markets are now pricing in about a 35 per cent chance of a September cut.
The Big Four banks are also predicting further cuts this year. Check out their forecasts here.
- Tom Flanagan
Australia now well placed to tackle global economic 'challenges'
Treasurer Jim Chalmers has hailed the third rate cut this year, and says it "puts us in good stead" to tackle global economic "challenges" we face.
The biggest of those, which RBA Governor Michele Bullock has been highly-cautious of, is Donald Trump's sweeping and volatile tariff war which continues to leave countries around the world guessing what will be next.
The RBA said in its monetary policy statement "uncertainty in the world economy remains elevated", and remains a risk to Australians however Chalmers says the work of the country collectively has left us in a strong position.
Treasurer Jim Chalmers addressing reporters following Tuesday's decision. Source: ABC - Belinda Grant-Geary
Why did the RBA cut?
We will hear from RBA governor Michele Bullock in under an hour. But until then economist will be pouring over the RBA's Monetary Policy Statement.
You can take a look yourself here.
Or this is the crux of it.
The RBA said inflation has continued to moderate however the board remains "cautious" given uncertainty in the global market.
"With underlying inflation continuing to decline back towards the midpoint of the 2–3 per cent range and labour market conditions easing slightly, as expected, the Board judged that a further easing of monetary policy was appropriate," the statement said.
"This takes the decline in the cash rate since the beginning of the year to 75 basis points.
"The Board nevertheless remains cautious about the outlook, particularly given the heightened level of uncertainty about both aggregate demand and potential supply.
"It noted that monetary policy is well placed to respond decisively to international developments if they were to have material implications for activity and inflation in Australia.
"The Board will be attentive to the data and the evolving assessment of risks to guide its decisions.
"In doing so, it will pay close attention to developments in the global economy and financial markets, trends in domestic demand, and the outlook for inflation and the labour market.
"The Board is focused on its mandate to deliver price stability and full employment and will do what it considers necessary to achieve that outcome."
- Stewart Perrie
Macquarie Bank first to announce a cut
Macquarie Bank was the first Australian bank to announce it would be passing on the RBA's decision to lower interest rates.
The bank had its announcement out just minutes after the RBA handed down its decision on Monetary Policy.
Macquarie Bank revealed will provide a full 0.25 per cent cut to its variable rate.
The cut will kick in on August 15.
The race is on now to see how the other banks react.
Follow on here for all the details.
- Belinda Grant-Geary
Unanimous decision
Last time we had a six-three split on the RBA board.
This time around it was a unanimous decision to pass on a cut to borrowers.
- Tom Flanagan
RBA cuts interest rate
OK, there it is. As expected, the RBA has cut the interest rate by 25 basis points to 3.6 per cent.
We'll be bringing you analysis of the monetary policy statement shortly.
- Belinda Grant-Geary
How certain is an interest rate cut?
The last time the RBA board met most economists said an interest rate cut was a definite.
As you would remember, they were proved wrong.
Six board members ended up with the majority vote, with only three wanting to pass on a cut (that means only three to convince this time around).
We have more data to give the board confidence that a cut would be prudent but The Motley Fool's chief investment officer Scott Phillips has erred on the side of caution.
His justification?
“It’s a parlour game”, he said.
“Pundits,” as John Kenneth Galbraith once said, “forecast not because they know, but because they are asked”.
Scott said economists is “at it best when it explains” and “at its worst when it tries to pretend it can predict.”
“Last time, the market thought the odds were 95%-plus that we’d get a rate cut,” Scott said.
“And what did the RBA do? It held rates steady.
“Oops.
“And today? The implied odds are essentially 100 per cent.
“Now, the market might be right. We’ll find out at 2.30pm, today.”
The finance expert noted that the RBA has said "essentially nothing” new about interest rates for the last couple of meeting and since then there has been “weak GDP, strong employment (and blessedly low unemployment) and falling inflation”.
Three out of 34 experts from Finder’s analysis predicted a hold, with similar justifications, and they could be right.
Scott stopped short of making any predictions himself.
“I’m not saying the market will be wrong about today’s rates call.
“But I’m not saying that it’ll be right.
“What I am saying is that prediction is hard.”
One thing is for sure, we will know in 15 minutes.
- Tom Flanagan
RBA soon to get clearer picture to make rates decision
There's been a bit of scrutiny over how the RBA was getting their inflation data and some believe last month's hold was a result of this.
The reserve bank has relied heavily on the quarterly CPI data, which was the most comprehensive offering from the Australian Bureau of Statistics. This obviously could hamper the RBA board's judgement with several meetings scheduled between each report.
"It is very difficult on four readings a year to get an idea of momentum of inflation," Michele Bullock previously said.
Well from November, that will end and the ABS will release comprehensive data monthly. This will bring Australia in line with all but one OECD nation.
- Tom Flanagan
We're not far off now
OK, so we're just over half an hour away from the RBA's cash rate decision.
We'll of course be bringing that to you right here, as well as the accompanying monetary policy statement.
Then we'll be hearing from Treasurer Jim Chalmers, followed by Michele Bullock who will front media about 3.30pm (AEST).
- Tom Flanagan
Could the RBA deliver a 50 basis points cut?
Well in May, Michele Bullock revealed the RBA board gave good consideration to a supersized 50 basis points cut, before eventually settling on 25 basis points. Bullock did stress nothing was off the table moving forward however, meaning that larger-than-normal cut could come down the track.
But then optimism from homeowners took a big hit with last month's hold and now suggestion of a 50 basis points cut has all but vanished.
The general consensus from leading economists is it's not really an option today, with the ABC's Business Editor Michael Janda saying the chance of a 50 basis points cut is "virtually zero".
But after July's meeting, the RBA certainly keeps us on our toes, so we won't rule it out just yet.
- Tamika Seeto
Will the big banks pass on an expected rate cut?
The Big Four banks were quick to pass on the RBA’s interest rate cuts in February and May, but will they be as generous this time around?
Canstar data insights director Sally Tindall said she expects the banks will step up after an expected cut today.
“We expect they will pass it on in full,” Tindall told Yahoo Finance.
“They should step up to the plate. This will be the third cut after 13 rate hikes. It’s not time to be hitting the brakes on passing on rate cuts.”
A borrower with a $600,000 loan with 25 years remaining would see their monthly repayments drop by $90 to $3,699.
Tindall said some low cost lenders tended to cut interest rates earlier as they saw the value in getting their announcements out quickly.
In May, for example, Athena Home Loans passed on a same day rate cut following May’s announcement while the major banks rate cuts are usually effective 10 to 14 days after the announcement.
Tindall said the group would be keeping “an eye on each and every lender” as announcements come through.
- Tom Flanagan
The one word now synonymous with RBA
There's one word that's bound to pop up plenty of times today once we've had the RBA's decision.
In the accompanying statement to July's decision, we saw the word uncertainty, or variations of it, five times.
In May's statement we saw it eight times, as well as the numerous times it was mentioned in Michele Bullock's press conference.
With volatile global policy continuing, namely Donald Trump's ongoing tariff war, don't expect a notoriously-cautious Bullock to ditch her favourite word anytime soon even if a rate cut is delivered.
TOPSHOT - Australia's Reserve Bank Governor, Michele Bullock, speaks during the Monetary Policy Decision media conference in Sydney on February 18, 2025. Australia's central bank cut its key interest rate on February 18 for the first time in more than four years, but warned global turmoil could derail further easing. (Photo by DAVID GRAY / AFP) (Photo by DAVID GRAY/AFP via Getty Images) · DAVID GRAY via Getty Images - Tamika Seeto
Interest rates drop under 5 per cent
Variable rates have dipped into the 4’s after Police Credit Union dropped its lowest rate to just 4.99 per cent last month.
Canstar data insights director Sally Tindall told Yahoo Finance the move “puts pressure on some of the other competitors to make that leap”, although it will be a “pretty big leap” for most.
“I don’t think many will but a handful of banks or non-banks may choose to join the Police Credit Union in that under 5 per cent club,” she said.
If the RBA cuts rates today, Canstar estimates more than 30 lenders will offer at least one variable rate under 5.25 per cent and more than 70 will offer at least one under 5.50 per cent.
The new average rate will be 5.54 per cent for existing borrowers and Tindall said borrowers should not be on a rate that was over 5.50 per cent.
Fixed rates are already “firmly” in the ‘4’s, with 18 lenders offering at least one fixed rate under 5 per cent.
- Tom Flanagan
For the non owners, will you ever get there?
Of course there's always plenty of chat about what this means for homeowners but spare a thought for those who don't, as a predicted rate cut will undoubtedly see prices rise once again.
In fact, the situation is so bleak for non-owners one third of them don't think they'll ever have their own home.
That disturbing discovery comes from Finder, with its Consumer Sentiment Tracker saying 35 per cent of Australians believe they won't ever get beyond renting their home.
“Record prices, steep borrowing costs, and saving for a deposit are locking people out. In many suburbs, even a six-figure salary won’t comfortably cover a mortgage," Finder's Graham Cooke said.
So if you don't own your own home, do you think you will at some point? Let us know below.
- Belinda Grant-Geary
The trifecta that paves way for rate cut
Yahoo Finance contributor and Aussie economic guru David Koch has broken down the three things he thinks the RBA needed to assess to greenlight a cut after the “disappointing” July decision.
Questions surrounding that data have now been answered which he said has given the RBA a '"trifecta of ticks" to warrant a cut. Check out the Compare the Market economic director's take here.
- Belinda Grant-Geary
Fixed or variable? The borrowers set to benefit from interest rate cut
Mortgage broker Brett Sutton from Two Red Shoes said sentiment has shifted over the last four years when fixed interest rates were incredibly popular - providing borrowers with “certainty during a period of historically low rates”.
He told Yahoo Finance that now the dynamic has shifted.
“Now, the opposite is true. Fixed rates are no longer a "no-brainer" for most borrowers,” Sutton said.
“In recent times, fixed rates were much higher than variable rates, making them unattractive for homeowners.
“Today, while fixed rates have come down and are now much closer to variable rates, they're still not appealing enough to drive a new wave of borrowers to fix.”
The Sydney broker said more borrowers were staying on variable rates as they, like the big banks, think the RBA will continue its rate cutting cycle.
“They don't see the value in locking in a rate that's only slightly lower than their current one, when they could potentially benefit from even bigger drops in the future,” he said.
So off the back of a surprise hold, and the potential for another in September, is this a good time to fix?
That all comes down to your personal circumstances.
“The gap between the best fixed and variable rates is often small, making the decision less about a significant saving and more about peace of mind. For those who value budgeting certainty above all else, a fixed rate might still make sense but for the majority, the bet is on the RBA continuing to ease monetary policy,” Sutton said.
- Stewart Perrie
If we get a cut today, will the RBA cut again in 2025?
There will be three more meetings in 2025 to determine the cash rate and Commonwealth Bank’s senior economist Belinda Allen told Yahoo Finance there is one with the greatest potential for another cut: November.
The RBA board said there wasn’t enough consumer price index (CPI) data to warrant a reduction when it delivered a shock hold in July.
However, since then, the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) released a quarterly inflation reading that indicated inflation was under control.
Trimmed inflation, the metric that the central bank uses in its interest rate decisions, fell from 2.9 to 2.7 per cent, which puts it in the RBA’s target zone of 2-3 per cent.
And, everyone is confident we will get an August cut.
But this cyclical approach may not bode well for a September reduction.
The quarterly data won’t be out by then.
“We generally think their cautious approach means they're waiting for the quarterly CPI and a quarterly forecast refresh,” Allen told Yahoo Finance.
But, we will have a new set of CPI data before the board meets in November.
“To deviate from that quarterly cadence, it would have to take a real big surprise in the data, as we know they're still a bit reluctant to rely on the monthly CPI,” she said.
“Unless you see, for example, a material lift in the unemployment rate, they'll stick to that once a quarter easing cycle.”
- Belinda Grant-Geary
Surprise statistic after Aussies plead for cuts
Interestingly, while some have needed the extra cash from this year's rate cuts to get by – Commonwealth Bank home buying team general manager Tess Sutherland said just one in 10 of the bank’s borrowers had opted to lower their home loan repayments after the May interest rate cut.
NAB and ANZ reported similar figures, with NAB noting more than 90 per cent kept their repayments steady after the May cut and ANZ noting 10 per cent had lowered repayments since the February cut.
Westpac is the only one of the Big Four banks that automatically drops repayments for customers paying the minimum amount.
Others have been happier for the money to eat away at their principal loan amount faster - allowing them to save on interest across the life of their loan.
Mozo personal finance expert Rachel Wastell told Yahoo Finance keeping your repayments the same was a great way for borrowers to “get ahead” on their loan
“If things are tight, using an offset account can still help reduce interest while giving you flexibility if you need access to funds later,” Wastell said.
- Tamika Seeto
How much will a rate cut today save me?
Compare the Market has crunched the numbers and found rate cuts of 25 basis points in February and May would have reduced monthly repayments on a $600,000 loan by around $193. Another cut in August could push that figure to $307 – a reduction of $3,684 over a year.
Here’s how much you could’ve saved a month, depending on the size of your loan, if you chose to pocket the cut.
Source: Compare the Market - Tom Flanagan
How did the RBA board vote last time?
While it is of course Governor Michele Bullock who fronts the media and faces the scrutiny of the RBA's decisions, the board as a collective has the final say on matters.
And in a first for the RBA following a recent restructuring of operations, it revealed how the board voted when it delivered a shock hold last month.
Six board members decided it was right to hold the cash rate at 3.85 per cent while just three said it was time to cut.
- Tom Flanagan
What are the major banks predicting?
Let's just remind ourselves where the Big Four banks stand when it comes to rate cuts in the near future after last meeting's hold.
All four believe there'll be a cut today, with CBA and ANZ believing that'll be the penultimate cut of this cycle.
But Westpac and NAB believe the RBA will go further in 2026. Take a look at what's predicted below.
- Stewart Perrie
These experts say a rate cut is no guarantee
The Big Four Banks and dozens of experts are all tipping the RBA will cut interest rates today.
But not everyone is singing the same tune.
Three out of the 34 specialists who spoke with Finder reckon the central bank could actually keep the cash rate on hold at 3.85 per cent.
Stella Huangfu, from the University of Sydney, had two reasons for her prediction.
“First, June quarter trimmed mean annual CPI inflation is still 2.7 per cent, which is high within the 2–3 per cent target band and slightly above the RBA’s forecast of 2.6 per cent,” she said.
“Second, the RBA has already cut rates twice this year, giving it scope to pause and assess the impact before moving further.”
Fresh Economic Thinking’s Cameron Murray also backed a hold, but said it was hard to tell which direction the RBA would go, while Jakob B Madsen, from the University of Western Australia thought the economic environment here “has not changed recently” enough to warrant a cut.
- Tom Flanagan
How have we fared since the RBA lifted the cash rate from its record low?
OK, let's have a look at where we currently stand in terms of the cash rate.
The following line chart shows how the rate has moved since the RBA began lifting it from a record-low of 0.1 per cent in the first half of 2022.
As you can see we spent all of 2024 at 4.35 per cent, the highest point of this cycle. Now, we're on the way down and if lowered by 25 basis points today, we'd reach a cash rate last seen in April 2023.
- Belinda Grant-Geary
Millennials have 'carried the nation' through tough times
You’d be stretched to find many people who haven’t felt the impacts of the nation’s cost-of-living crisis.
But, Yahoo Finance contributor David Koch said one group has copped it more than any other – young mortgage holders.
So if you're prone to wheeling out the infamous smashed avo remark, Kochie isn't a fan.
“Young homeowners paying off a mortgage have carried the nation through the cost-of-living crisis,” the Compare the Market economic director said.
“They’ve had the worst of everything – higher prices at the supermarket, higher rates at the bank, plus the cost of everything from insurance to council rates going up.
“And of course, they had to spend much more to purchase a home in the first place."
New research from Compare the Market found someone with an average loan of around $600,000 would have seen their monthly repayments rise from $2,218 to $3,694 as the cash rate increased to 4.35 per cent between May 2022 and November 2023.
Koch attributed the efforts of this generation to bringing inflation “back in the Reserve Bank’s target range”.
“They’ve tightened their belts, cut back on spending, and reckon its time some of that pressure came off,” he said.
- Tom Flanagan
Another hold could be devastating for RBA reputation
They won't hold it again will they?
Well, stranger things have happened. Everyone pretty much banked on a rate cut the last time the RBA met, so we will have to wait and see this afternoon.
But if Michele Bullock and her board do decide to hold the cash rate at 3.85 per cent, expect a major outcry from the Australian public.
“If the RBA doesn’t cut next week, they are risking an all-out attack on their legitimacy in the eyes of many homeowners,” Finder's Head of Consumer Research Graham Cooke said.
“Last month’s decision to hold shocked the market, and we are now seeing a 90 per cent plus certainty of a cut. With inflation well within the target range, there is no reason to hold."
Michele Bullock stunned Australia last month. Will she again today? Source: Getty · DAVID GRAY via Getty Images - Stewart Perrie
'All signs point to a cut'
Commonwealth Bank believes the RBA has more than enough data to warrant another rate cut.
While the major bank predicted there was going to be a reduction in the cash rate last month and was proven wrong, CBA senior economist Belinda Allen told Yahoo Finance the Board didn’t have the right information.
“Back in July, they said it was about timing, not about direction,” she said.
“We've had that five-week period. The inflation data has come in as expected. You could even argue that the inflation data could even have been a little bit softer than what they were expecting. So all signs point to them continuing their easing cycle today.”
The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) revealed at the end of last month that underlying inflation, which the RBA closely monitors, dropped from 2.9 per cent to 2.7 per cent.
That is tantalisingly close to the RBA’s target of 2.5 per cent.
A 25 basis point reduction in the cash rate would bring it from 3.85 per cent to 3.60 per cent.









