Mach7 Technologies Limited's (ASX:M7T) Intrinsic Value Is Potentially 52% Above Its Share Price

Key Insights

• The projected fair value for Mach7 Technologies is AU$0.80 based on 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity

• Mach7 Technologies' AU$0.53 share price signals that it might be 34% undervalued

• Mach7 Technologies' peers are currently trading at a premium of 140% on average

Today we'll do a simple run through of a valuation method used to estimate the attractiveness of Mach7 Technologies Limited (ASX:M7T) as an investment opportunity by taking the expected future cash flows and discounting them to today's value. We will use the Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model on this occasion. Models like these may appear beyond the comprehension of a lay person, but they're fairly easy to follow.

We generally believe that a company's value is the present value of all of the cash it will generate in the future. However, a DCF is just one valuation metric among many, and it is not without flaws. Anyone interested in learning a bit more about intrinsic value should have a read of the Simply Wall St analysis model.

See our latest analysis for Mach7 Technologies

The Method

We are going to use a two-stage DCF model, which, as the name states, takes into account two stages of growth. The first stage is generally a higher growth period which levels off heading towards the terminal value, captured in the second 'steady growth' period. To start off with, we need to estimate the next ten years of cash flows. Where possible we use analyst estimates, but when these aren't available we extrapolate the previous free cash flow (FCF) from the last estimate or reported value. We assume companies with shrinking free cash flow will slow their rate of shrinkage, and that companies with growing free cash flow will see their growth rate slow, over this period. We do this to reflect that growth tends to slow more in the early years than it does in later years.

Generally we assume that a dollar today is more valuable than a dollar in the future, so we need to discount the sum of these future cash flows to arrive at a present value estimate:

10-year free cash flow (FCF) estimate

	2023	2024	2025	2026	2027	2028	2029	2030	2031	2032
Levered FCF (A$, Millions)	AU$700.0k	AU$13.2m	AU$12.9m	AU$12.8m	AU$12.8m	AU$12.9m	AU$13.0m	AU$13.1m	AU$13.3m	AU$13.6m
Growth Rate Estimate Source	Analyst x1	Analyst x1	Analyst x1	Est @ -0.89%	Est @ -0.04%	Est @ 0.56%	Est @ 0.98%	Est @ 1.27%	Est @ 1.48%	Est @ 1.62%
Present Value (A$, Millions) Discounted @ 7.7%	AU$0.7	AU$11.4	AU$10.3	AU$9.5	AU$8.8	AU$8.2	AU$7.7	AU$7.3	AU$6.9	AU$6.5

("Est" = FCF growth rate estimated by Simply Wall St)
Present Value of 10-year Cash Flow (PVCF) = AU$77m

The second stage is also known as Terminal Value, this is the business's cash flow after the first stage. For a number of reasons a very conservative growth rate is used that cannot exceed that of a country's GDP growth. In this case we have used the 5-year average of the 10-year government bond yield (2.0%) to estimate future growth. In the same way as with the 10-year 'growth' period, we discount future cash flows to today's value, using a cost of equity of 7.7%.

Terminal Value (TV)= FCF₂₀₃₂ × (1 + g) ÷ (r – g) = AU$14m× (1 + 2.0%) ÷ (7.7%– 2.0%) = AU$242m

Present Value of Terminal Value (PVTV)= TV / (1 + r)¹⁰= AU$242m÷ ( 1 + 7.7%)¹⁰= AU$115m

The total value, or equity value, is then the sum of the present value of the future cash flows, which in this case is AU$193m. In the final step we divide the equity value by the number of shares outstanding. Relative to the current share price of AU$0.5, the company appears quite good value at a 34% discount to where the stock price trades currently. The assumptions in any calculation have a big impact on the valuation, so it is better to view this as a rough estimate, not precise down to the last cent.

dcf

Important Assumptions

The calculation above is very dependent on two assumptions. The first is the discount rate and the other is the cash flows. You don't have to agree with these inputs, I recommend redoing the calculations yourself and playing with them. The DCF also does not consider the possible cyclicality of an industry, or a company's future capital requirements, so it does not give a full picture of a company's potential performance. Given that we are looking at Mach7 Technologies as potential shareholders, the cost of equity is used as the discount rate, rather than the cost of capital (or weighted average cost of capital, WACC) which accounts for debt. In this calculation we've used 7.7%, which is based on a levered beta of 0.962. Beta is a measure of a stock's volatility, compared to the market as a whole. We get our beta from the industry average beta of globally comparable companies, with an imposed limit between 0.8 and 2.0, which is a reasonable range for a stable business.

Looking Ahead:

Whilst important, the DCF calculation is only one of many factors that you need to assess for a company. DCF models are not the be-all and end-all of investment valuation. Rather it should be seen as a guide to "what assumptions need to be true for this stock to be under/overvalued?" For instance, if the terminal value growth rate is adjusted slightly, it can dramatically alter the overall result. Why is the intrinsic value higher than the current share price? For Mach7 Technologies, we've put together three further elements you should further research:

1. Risks: Consider for instance, the ever-present spectre of investment risk. We've identified 1 warning sign with Mach7 Technologies , and understanding this should be part of your investment process.

2. Future Earnings: How does M7T's growth rate compare to its peers and the wider market? Dig deeper into the analyst consensus number for the upcoming years by interacting with our free analyst growth expectation chart.

3. Other Solid Businesses: Low debt, high returns on equity and good past performance are fundamental to a strong business. Why not explore our interactive list of stocks with solid business fundamentals to see if there are other companies you may not have considered!

PS. Simply Wall St updates its DCF calculation for every Australian stock every day, so if you want to find the intrinsic value of any other stock just search here.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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