Yahoo Finance Are You Looking for a Top Momentum Pick? Why Valero Energy (VLO) is a Great Choice
Momentum investing is all about the idea of following a stock's recent trend, which can be in either direction. In the 'long' context, investors will essentially be "buying high, but hoping to sell even higher." And for investors following this methodology, taking advantage of trends in a stock's price is key; once a stock establishes a course, it is more than likely to continue moving in that direction. The goal is that once a stock heads down a fixed path, it will lead to timely and profitable trades.
While many investors like to look for momentum in stocks, this can be very tough to define. There is a lot of debate surrounding which metrics are the best to focus on and which are poor quality indicators of future performance. The Zacks Momentum Style Score, part of the Zacks Style Scores, helps address this issue for us.
Below, we take a look at Valero Energy (VLO), a company that currently holds a Momentum Style Score of A. We also talk about price change and earnings estimate revisions, two of the main aspects of the Momentum Style Score.
It's also important to note that Style Scores work as a complement to the Zacks Rank, our stock rating system that has an impressive track record of outperformance. Valero Energy currently has a Zacks Rank of #2 (Buy). Our research shows that stocks rated Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy) and #2 (Buy) and Style Scores of A or B outperform the market over the following one-month period.
You can see the current list of Zacks #1 Rank Stocks here >>>
Set to Beat the Market?
Let's discuss some of the components of the Momentum Style Score for VLO that show why this oil refiner shows promise as a solid momentum pick.
Looking at a stock's short-term price activity is a great way to gauge if it has momentum, since this can reflect both the current interest in a stock and if buyers or sellers have the upper hand at the moment. It is also useful to compare a security to its industry, as this can help investors pinpoint the top companies in a particular area.
For VLO, shares are up 7.44% over the past week while the Zacks Oil and Gas - Refining and Marketing industry is up 5.27% over the same time period. Shares are looking quite well from a longer time frame too, as the monthly price change of 22.64% compares favorably with the industry's 11.75% performance as well.
While any stock can see its price increase, it takes a real winner to consistently beat the market. That is why looking at longer term price metrics -- such as performance over the past three months or year -- can be useful as well. Shares of Valero Energy have increased 39.46% over the past quarter, and have gained 38.31% in the last year. On the other hand, the S&P 500 has only moved 11.17% and 28.93%, respectively.
Investors should also pay attention to VLO's average 20-day trading volume. Volume is a useful item in many ways, and the 20-day average establishes a good price-to-volume baseline; a rising stock with above average volume is generally a bullish sign, whereas a declining stock on above average volume is typically bearish. VLO is currently averaging 3,534,091 shares for the last 20 days.
Earnings Outlook
The Zacks Momentum Style Score encompasses many things, including estimate revisions and a stock's price movement. Investors should note that earnings estimates are also significant to the Zacks Rank, and a nice path here can be promising. We have recently been noticing this with VLO.
Over the past two months, 7 earnings estimates moved higher compared to none lower for the full year. These revisions helped boost VLO's consensus estimate, increasing from $14.51 to $17.14 in the past 60 days. Looking at the next fiscal year, 5 estimates have moved upwards while there have been 2 downward revisions in the same time period.
Bottom Line
Given these factors, it shouldn't be surprising that VLO is a #2 (Buy) stock and boasts a Momentum Score of A. If you're looking for a fresh pick that's set to soar in the near-term, make sure to keep Valero Energy on your short list.
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Valero Energy Corporation (VLO) : Free Stock Analysis Report
