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A Look At The Intrinsic Value Of Ainsworth Game Technology Limited (ASX:AGI)

Key Insights

  • The projected fair value for Ainsworth Game Technology is AU$1.24 based on 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity

  • Current share price of AU$1.21 suggests Ainsworth Game Technology is potentially trading close to its fair value

  • When compared to theindustry average discount to fair value of 2.7%, Ainsworth Game Technology's competitors seem to be trading at a greater discount

How far off is Ainsworth Game Technology Limited (ASX:AGI) from its intrinsic value? Using the most recent financial data, we'll take a look at whether the stock is fairly priced by taking the forecast future cash flows of the company and discounting them back to today's value. This will be done using the Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model. It may sound complicated, but actually it is quite simple!

We would caution that there are many ways of valuing a company and, like the DCF, each technique has advantages and disadvantages in certain scenarios. If you still have some burning questions about this type of valuation, take a look at the Simply Wall St analysis model.

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View our latest analysis for Ainsworth Game Technology

The Calculation

We are going to use a two-stage DCF model, which, as the name states, takes into account two stages of growth. The first stage is generally a higher growth period which levels off heading towards the terminal value, captured in the second 'steady growth' period. To begin with, we have to get estimates of the next ten years of cash flows. Where possible we use analyst estimates, but when these aren't available we extrapolate the previous free cash flow (FCF) from the last estimate or reported value. We assume companies with shrinking free cash flow will slow their rate of shrinkage, and that companies with growing free cash flow will see their growth rate slow, over this period. We do this to reflect that growth tends to slow more in the early years than it does in later years.

A DCF is all about the idea that a dollar in the future is less valuable than a dollar today, so we need to discount the sum of these future cash flows to arrive at a present value estimate:

10-year free cash flow (FCF) estimate

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

2029

2030

2031

2032

2033

Levered FCF (A$, Millions)

AU$50.7m

AU$37.8m

AU$30.9m

AU$27.2m

AU$25.1m

AU$23.8m

AU$23.2m

AU$22.9m

AU$22.8m

AU$22.9m

Growth Rate Estimate Source

Analyst x1

Analyst x1

Est @ -18.16%

Est @ -12.09%

Est @ -7.84%

Est @ -4.86%

Est @ -2.78%

Est @ -1.32%

Est @ -0.30%

Est @ 0.41%

Present Value (A$, Millions) Discounted @ 7.5%

AU$47.2

AU$32.7

AU$24.9

AU$20.4

AU$17.4

AU$15.4

AU$14.0

AU$12.8

AU$11.9

AU$11.1

("Est" = FCF growth rate estimated by Simply Wall St)
Present Value of 10-year Cash Flow (PVCF) = AU$208m

The second stage is also known as Terminal Value, this is the business's cash flow after the first stage. For a number of reasons a very conservative growth rate is used that cannot exceed that of a country's GDP growth. In this case we have used the 5-year average of the 10-year government bond yield (2.1%) to estimate future growth. In the same way as with the 10-year 'growth' period, we discount future cash flows to today's value, using a cost of equity of 7.5%.

Terminal Value (TV)= FCF2033 × (1 + g) ÷ (r – g) = AU$23m× (1 + 2.1%) ÷ (7.5%– 2.1%) = AU$430m

Present Value of Terminal Value (PVTV)= TV / (1 + r)10= AU$430m÷ ( 1 + 7.5%)10= AU$209m

The total value is the sum of cash flows for the next ten years plus the discounted terminal value, which results in the Total Equity Value, which in this case is AU$416m. The last step is to then divide the equity value by the number of shares outstanding. Compared to the current share price of AU$1.2, the company appears about fair value at a 2.5% discount to where the stock price trades currently. The assumptions in any calculation have a big impact on the valuation, so it is better to view this as a rough estimate, not precise down to the last cent.

dcf
dcf

The Assumptions

Now the most important inputs to a discounted cash flow are the discount rate, and of course, the actual cash flows. You don't have to agree with these inputs, I recommend redoing the calculations yourself and playing with them. The DCF also does not consider the possible cyclicality of an industry, or a company's future capital requirements, so it does not give a full picture of a company's potential performance. Given that we are looking at Ainsworth Game Technology as potential shareholders, the cost of equity is used as the discount rate, rather than the cost of capital (or weighted average cost of capital, WACC) which accounts for debt. In this calculation we've used 7.5%, which is based on a levered beta of 1.086. Beta is a measure of a stock's volatility, compared to the market as a whole. We get our beta from the industry average beta of globally comparable companies, with an imposed limit between 0.8 and 2.0, which is a reasonable range for a stable business.

Moving On:

Valuation is only one side of the coin in terms of building your investment thesis, and it shouldn't be the only metric you look at when researching a company. DCF models are not the be-all and end-all of investment valuation. Preferably you'd apply different cases and assumptions and see how they would impact the company's valuation. If a company grows at a different rate, or if its cost of equity or risk free rate changes sharply, the output can look very different. For Ainsworth Game Technology, there are three additional aspects you should further research:

  1. Risks: You should be aware of the 2 warning signs for Ainsworth Game Technology we've uncovered before considering an investment in the company.

  2. Future Earnings: How does AGI's growth rate compare to its peers and the wider market? Dig deeper into the analyst consensus number for the upcoming years by interacting with our free analyst growth expectation chart.

  3. Other Solid Businesses: Low debt, high returns on equity and good past performance are fundamental to a strong business. Why not explore our interactive list of stocks with solid business fundamentals to see if there are other companies you may not have considered!

PS. The Simply Wall St app conducts a discounted cash flow valuation for every stock on the ASX every day. If you want to find the calculation for other stocks just search here.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.