Yahoo Finance A Look At The Fair Value Of Amcor Limited (ASX:AMC)
I am going to run you through how I calculated the intrinsic value of Amcor Limited (ASX:AMC) by taking the expected future cash flows and discounting them to today’s value. I will be using the Discounted Cash Flows (DCF) model. It may sound complicated, but actually it is quite simple! If you want to learn more about discounted cash flow, the basis for my calcs can be read in detail in the Simply Wall St analysis model. If you are reading this and its not August 2018 then I highly recommend you check out the latest calculation for Amcor by following the link below.
See our latest analysis for Amcor
The model
We are going to use a two-stage DCF model, which, as the name states, takes into account two stages of growth. The first stage is generally a higher growth period which levels off heading towards the terminal value, captured in the second ‘steady growth’ period. To start off with we need to estimate the next five years of cash flows. For this I used the consensus of the analysts covering the stock, as you can see below. I then discount the sum of these cash flows to arrive at a present value estimate.
5-year cash flow estimate
2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | |
Levered FCF ($, Millions) | $735.78 | $846.74 | $894.55 | $880.17 | $866.02 |
Source | Analyst x4 | Analyst x5 | Analyst x4 | Est @ -1.61% | Est @ -1.61% |
Present Value Discounted @ 9.95% | $669.22 | $700.48 | $673.09 | $602.37 | $539.07 |
Present Value of 5-year Cash Flow (PVCF)= US$3.18b
After calculating the present value of future cash flows in the intial 5-year period we need to calculate the Terminal Value, which accounts for all the future cash flows beyond the first stage. For a number of reasons a very conservative growth rate is used that cannot exceed that of the GDP. In this case I have used the 10-year government bond rate (2.8%). In the same way as with the 5-year ‘growth’ period, we discount this to today’s value at a cost of equity of 9.9%.
Terminal Value (TV) = FCF2022 × (1 + g) ÷ (r – g) = US$866.02m × (1 + 2.8%) ÷ (9.9% – 2.8%) = US$12.41b
Present Value of Terminal Value (PVTV) = TV / (1 + r)5 = US$12.41b ÷ ( 1 + 9.9%)5 = US$7.73b
The total value is the sum of cash flows for the next five years and the discounted terminal value, which results in the Total Equity Value, which in this case is US$10.91b. The last step is to then divide the equity value by the number of shares outstanding. If the stock is an depositary receipt (represents a specified number of shares in a foreign corporation) then we use the equivalent number. This results in an intrinsic value in the company’s reported currency of $9.45. However, AMC’s primary listing is in Australia, and 1 share of AMC in USD represents 1.368 ( USD/ AUD) share of OTCPK:AMCR.Y, so the intrinsic value per share in AUD is A$12.92. Relative to the current share price of A$13.71, the stock is fair value, maybe slightly overvalued and not available at a discount at this time.
Important assumptions
The calculation above is very dependent on two assumptions. The first is the discount rate and the other is the cash flows. If you don’t agree with my result, have a go at the calculation yourself and play with the assumptions. Because we are looking at Amcor as potential shareholders, the cost of equity is used as the discount rate, rather than the cost of capital (or weighed average cost of capital, WACC) which accounts for debt. In this calculation I’ve used 9.9%, which is based on a levered beta of 0.992. This is derived from the Bottom-Up Beta method based on comparable companies, with an imposed limit between 0.8 and 2.0, which is a reasonable range for a stable business.
Next Steps:
Valuation is only one side of the coin in terms of building your investment thesis, and it shouldn’t be the only metric you look at when researching a company. For AMC, I’ve put together three pertinent factors you should further research:
Financial Health: Does AMC have a healthy balance sheet? Take a look at our free balance sheet analysis with six simple checks on key factors like leverage and risk.
Future Earnings: How does AMC’s growth rate compare to its peers and the wider market? Dig deeper into the analyst consensus number for the upcoming years by interacting with our free analyst growth expectation chart.
Other High Quality Alternatives: Are there other high quality stocks you could be holding instead of AMC? Explore our interactive list of high quality stocks to get an idea of what else is out there you may be missing!
PS. Simply Wall St does a DCF calculation for every AU stock every 6 hours, so if you want to find the intrinsic value of any other stock just search here.
To help readers see past the short term volatility of the financial market, we aim to bring you a long-term focused research analysis purely driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis does not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements.
The author is an independent contributor and at the time of publication had no position in the stocks mentioned. For errors that warrant correction please contact the editor at editorial-team@simplywallst.com.
