Kraken Robotics Inc.'s (CVE:PNG) Intrinsic Value Is Potentially 93% Above Its Share Price

Key Insights

• Using the 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity, Kraken Robotics fair value estimate is CA$0.98

• Current share price of CA$0.51 suggests Kraken Robotics is potentially 48% undervalued

• Analyst price target for PNG is CA$1.03, which is 5.2% above our fair value estimate

In this article we are going to estimate the intrinsic value of Kraken Robotics Inc. (CVE:PNG) by taking the expected future cash flows and discounting them to today's value. Our analysis will employ the Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model. Models like these may appear beyond the comprehension of a lay person, but they're fairly easy to follow.

Companies can be valued in a lot of ways, so we would point out that a DCF is not perfect for every situation. For those who are keen learners of equity analysis, the Simply Wall St analysis model here may be something of interest to you.

View our latest analysis for Kraken Robotics

What's The Estimated Valuation?

We use what is known as a 2-stage model, which simply means we have two different periods of growth rates for the company's cash flows. Generally the first stage is higher growth, and the second stage is a lower growth phase. In the first stage we need to estimate the cash flows to the business over the next ten years. Where possible we use analyst estimates, but when these aren't available we extrapolate the previous free cash flow (FCF) from the last estimate or reported value. We assume companies with shrinking free cash flow will slow their rate of shrinkage, and that companies with growing free cash flow will see their growth rate slow, over this period. We do this to reflect that growth tends to slow more in the early years than it does in later years.

Generally we assume that a dollar today is more valuable than a dollar in the future, so we need to discount the sum of these future cash flows to arrive at a present value estimate:

10-year free cash flow (FCF) estimate

	2024	2025	2026	2027	2028	2029	2030	2031	2032	2033
Levered FCF (CA$, Millions)	CA$10.5m	CA$11.1m	CA$11.6m	CA$12.0m	CA$12.4m	CA$12.7m	CA$13.0m	CA$13.3m	CA$13.6m	CA$13.9m
Growth Rate Estimate Source	Analyst x2	Est @ 5.51%	Est @ 4.42%	Est @ 3.65%	Est @ 3.11%	Est @ 2.74%	Est @ 2.47%	Est @ 2.29%	Est @ 2.16%	Est @ 2.07%
Present Value (CA$, Millions) Discounted @ 7.6%	CA$9.8	CA$9.6	CA$9.3	CA$9.0	CA$8.6	CA$8.2	CA$7.8	CA$7.4	CA$7.0	CA$6.7

("Est" = FCF growth rate estimated by Simply Wall St)
Present Value of 10-year Cash Flow (PVCF) = CA$83m

We now need to calculate the Terminal Value, which accounts for all the future cash flows after this ten year period. For a number of reasons a very conservative growth rate is used that cannot exceed that of a country's GDP growth. In this case we have used the 5-year average of the 10-year government bond yield (1.9%) to estimate future growth. In the same way as with the 10-year 'growth' period, we discount future cash flows to today's value, using a cost of equity of 7.6%.

Terminal Value (TV)= FCF₂₀₃₃ × (1 + g) ÷ (r – g) = CA$14m× (1 + 1.9%) ÷ (7.6%– 1.9%) = CA$247m

Present Value of Terminal Value (PVTV)= TV / (1 + r)¹⁰= CA$247m÷ ( 1 + 7.6%)¹⁰= CA$119m

The total value is the sum of cash flows for the next ten years plus the discounted terminal value, which results in the Total Equity Value, which in this case is CA$202m. The last step is to then divide the equity value by the number of shares outstanding. Relative to the current share price of CA$0.5, the company appears quite good value at a 48% discount to where the stock price trades currently. Remember though, that this is just an approximate valuation, and like any complex formula - garbage in, garbage out.

dcf

Important Assumptions

Now the most important inputs to a discounted cash flow are the discount rate, and of course, the actual cash flows. Part of investing is coming up with your own evaluation of a company's future performance, so try the calculation yourself and check your own assumptions. The DCF also does not consider the possible cyclicality of an industry, or a company's future capital requirements, so it does not give a full picture of a company's potential performance. Given that we are looking at Kraken Robotics as potential shareholders, the cost of equity is used as the discount rate, rather than the cost of capital (or weighted average cost of capital, WACC) which accounts for debt. In this calculation we've used 7.6%, which is based on a levered beta of 1.144. Beta is a measure of a stock's volatility, compared to the market as a whole. We get our beta from the industry average beta of globally comparable companies, with an imposed limit between 0.8 and 2.0, which is a reasonable range for a stable business.

SWOT Analysis for Kraken Robotics

Strength

• Debt is well covered by cash flow.

Weakness

• Interest payments on debt are not well covered.

• Shareholders have been diluted in the past year.

Opportunity

• Expected to breakeven next year.

• Has sufficient cash runway for more than 3 years based on current free cash flows.

• Trading below our estimate of fair value by more than 20%.

Threat

• No apparent threats visible for PNG.

Next Steps:

Valuation is only one side of the coin in terms of building your investment thesis, and it ideally won't be the sole piece of analysis you scrutinize for a company. It's not possible to obtain a foolproof valuation with a DCF model. Rather it should be seen as a guide to "what assumptions need to be true for this stock to be under/overvalued?" If a company grows at a different rate, or if its cost of equity or risk free rate changes sharply, the output can look very different. What is the reason for the share price sitting below the intrinsic value? For Kraken Robotics, we've compiled three additional aspects you should consider:

1. Risks: Consider for instance, the ever-present spectre of investment risk. We've identified 2 warning signs with Kraken Robotics , and understanding these should be part of your investment process.

2. Future Earnings: How does PNG's growth rate compare to its peers and the wider market? Dig deeper into the analyst consensus number for the upcoming years by interacting with our free analyst growth expectation chart.

3. Other Solid Businesses: Low debt, high returns on equity and good past performance are fundamental to a strong business. Why not explore our interactive list of stocks with solid business fundamentals to see if there are other companies you may not have considered!

PS. The Simply Wall St app conducts a discounted cash flow valuation for every stock on the TSXV every day. If you want to find the calculation for other stocks just search here.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.