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Investors Who Bought Fleetwood (ASX:FWD) Shares A Year Ago Are Now Down 27%

Investors can approximate the average market return by buying an index fund. When you buy individual stocks, you can make higher profits, but you also face the risk of under-performance. For example, the Fleetwood Corporation Limited (ASX:FWD) share price is down 27% in the last year. That's disappointing when you consider the market returned 7.5%. Longer term shareholders haven't suffered as badly, since the stock is down a comparatively less painful 18% in three years. Shareholders have had an even rougher run lately, with the share price down 13% in the last 90 days.

See our latest analysis for Fleetwood

To paraphrase Benjamin Graham: Over the short term the market is a voting machine, but over the long term it's a weighing machine. One way to examine how market sentiment has changed over time is to look at the interaction between a company's share price and its earnings per share (EPS).

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Unhappily, Fleetwood had to report a 20% decline in EPS over the last year. This reduction in EPS is not as bad as the 27% share price fall. Unsurprisingly, given the lack of EPS growth, the market seems to be more cautious about the stock. The less favorable sentiment is reflected in its current P/E ratio of 7.68.

The graphic below depicts how EPS has changed over time (unveil the exact values by clicking on the image).

ASX:FWD Past and Future Earnings, August 8th 2019
ASX:FWD Past and Future Earnings, August 8th 2019

We like that insiders have been buying shares in the last twelve months. Even so, future earnings will be far more important to whether current shareholders make money. It might be well worthwhile taking a look at our free report on Fleetwood's earnings, revenue and cash flow.

What about the Total Shareholder Return (TSR)?

Investors should note that there's a difference between Fleetwood's total shareholder return (TSR) and its share price change, which we've covered above. The TSR attempts to capture the value of dividends (as if they were reinvested) as well as any spin-offs or discounted capital raisings offered to shareholders. Dividends have been really beneficial for Fleetwood shareholders, and that cash payout explains why its total shareholder loss of 27%, over the last year, isn't as bad as the share price return.

A Different Perspective

While the broader market gained around 7.5% in the last year, Fleetwood shareholders lost 27% (even including dividends). However, keep in mind that even the best stocks will sometimes underperform the market over a twelve month period. Unfortunately, last year's performance may indicate unresolved challenges, given that it was worse than the annualised loss of 3.5% over the last half decade. Generally speaking long term share price weakness can be a bad sign, though contrarian investors might want to research the stock in hope of a turnaround. Investors who like to make money usually check up on insider purchases, such as the price paid, and total amount bought. You can find out about the insider purchases of Fleetwood by clicking this link.

Fleetwood is not the only stock insiders are buying. So take a peek at this free list of growing companies with insider buying.

Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on AU exchanges.

We aim to bring you long-term focused research analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.

If you spot an error that warrants correction, please contact the editor at editorial-team@simplywallst.com. This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. Simply Wall St has no position in the stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading.