While Fletcher Building Limited (NZSE:FBU) might not be the most widely known stock at the moment, it received a lot of attention from a substantial price movement on the NZSE over the last few months, increasing to NZ$5.68 at one point, and dropping to the lows of NZ$4.84. Some share price movements can give investors a better opportunity to enter into the stock, and potentially buy at a lower price. A question to answer is whether Fletcher Building's current trading price of NZ$4.90 reflective of the actual value of the mid-cap? Or is it currently undervalued, providing us with the opportunity to buy? Let’s take a look at Fletcher Building’s outlook and value based on the most recent financial data to see if there are any catalysts for a price change.
What's The Opportunity In Fletcher Building?
The share price seems sensible at the moment according to my price multiple model, where I compare the company's price-to-earnings ratio to the industry average. I’ve used the price-to-earnings ratio in this instance because there’s not enough visibility to forecast its cash flows. The stock’s ratio of 8.83x is currently trading slightly below its industry peers’ ratio of 13.42x, which means if you buy Fletcher Building today, you’d be paying a decent price for it. And if you believe that Fletcher Building should be trading at this level in the long run, then there’s not much of an upside to gain over and above other industry peers. Although, there may be an opportunity to buy in the future. This is because Fletcher Building’s beta (a measure of share price volatility) is high, meaning its price movements will be exaggerated relative to the rest of the market. If the market is bearish, the company’s shares will likely fall by more than the rest of the market, providing a prime buying opportunity.
What does the future of Fletcher Building look like?
Future outlook is an important aspect when you’re looking at buying a stock, especially if you are an investor looking for growth in your portfolio. Buying a great company with a robust outlook at a cheap price is always a good investment, so let’s also take a look at the company's future expectations. However, with a relatively muted profit growth of 7.0% expected over the next couple of years, growth doesn’t seem like a key driver for a buy decision for Fletcher Building, at least in the short term.
What This Means For You
Are you a shareholder? FBU’s future growth appears to have been factored into the current share price, with shares trading around industry price multiples. However, there are also other important factors which we haven’t considered today, such as the track record of its management team. Have these factors changed since the last time you looked at FBU? Will you have enough conviction to buy should the price fluctuate below the industry PE ratio?
Are you a potential investor? If you’ve been keeping an eye on FBU, now may not be the most optimal time to buy, given it is trading around industry price multiples. However, the positive growth outlook may mean it’s worth diving deeper into other factors in order to take advantage of the next price drop.
With this in mind, we wouldn't consider investing in a stock unless we had a thorough understanding of the risks. In terms of investment risks, we've identified 1 warning sign with Fletcher Building, and understanding it should be part of your investment process.
If you are no longer interested in Fletcher Building, you can use our free platform to see our list of over 50 other stocks with a high growth potential.
Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
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