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Introducing BAE Systems (LON:BA.), A Stock That Climbed 24% In The Last Five Years

When we invest, we're generally looking for stocks that outperform the market average. Buying under-rated businesses is one path to excess returns. For example, long term BAE Systems plc (LON:BA.) shareholders have enjoyed a 24% share price rise over the last half decade, well in excess of the market return of around 9.3% (not including dividends).

See our latest analysis for BAE Systems

While markets are a powerful pricing mechanism, share prices reflect investor sentiment, not just underlying business performance. One imperfect but simple way to consider how the market perception of a company has shifted is to compare the change in the earnings per share (EPS) with the share price movement.

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Over half a decade, BAE Systems managed to grow its earnings per share at 48% a year. This EPS growth is higher than the 4.4% average annual increase in the share price. So one could conclude that the broader market has become more cautious towards the stock.

You can see how EPS has changed over time in the image below (click on the chart to see the exact values).

LSE:BA. Past and Future Earnings, December 12th 2019
LSE:BA. Past and Future Earnings, December 12th 2019

We know that BAE Systems has improved its bottom line lately, but is it going to grow revenue? Check if analysts think BAE Systems will grow revenue in the future.

What About Dividends?

When looking at investment returns, it is important to consider the difference between total shareholder return (TSR) and share price return. The TSR is a return calculation that accounts for the value of cash dividends (assuming that any dividend received was reinvested) and the calculated value of any discounted capital raisings and spin-offs. So for companies that pay a generous dividend, the TSR is often a lot higher than the share price return. In the case of BAE Systems, it has a TSR of 51% for the last 5 years. That exceeds its share price return that we previously mentioned. The dividends paid by the company have thusly boosted the total shareholder return.

A Different Perspective

We're pleased to report that BAE Systems shareholders have received a total shareholder return of 27% over one year. That's including the dividend. That's better than the annualised return of 8.6% over half a decade, implying that the company is doing better recently. Someone with an optimistic perspective could view the recent improvement in TSR as indicating that the business itself is getting better with time. Keeping this in mind, a solid next step might be to take a look at BAE Systems's dividend track record. This free interactive graph is a great place to start.

We will like BAE Systems better if we see some big insider buys. While we wait, check out this free list of growing companies with considerable, recent, insider buying.

Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on GB exchanges.

If you spot an error that warrants correction, please contact the editor at editorial-team@simplywallst.com. This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. Simply Wall St has no position in the stocks mentioned.

We aim to bring you long-term focused research analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Thank you for reading.