An Intrinsic Calculation For Peloton Interactive, Inc. (NASDAQ:PTON) Suggests It's 45% Undervalued
Key Insights
Peloton Interactive's estimated fair value is US$8.45 based on 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity
Current share price of US$4.63 suggests Peloton Interactive is potentially 45% undervalued
Our fair value estimate is 59% higher than Peloton Interactive's analyst price target of US$5.31
Today we will run through one way of estimating the intrinsic value of Peloton Interactive, Inc. (NASDAQ:PTON) by taking the expected future cash flows and discounting them to their present value. One way to achieve this is by employing the Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model. There's really not all that much to it, even though it might appear quite complex.
Companies can be valued in a lot of ways, so we would point out that a DCF is not perfect for every situation. For those who are keen learners of equity analysis, the Simply Wall St analysis model here may be something of interest to you.
Check out our latest analysis for Peloton Interactive
Step By Step Through The Calculation
We use what is known as a 2-stage model, which simply means we have two different periods of growth rates for the company's cash flows. Generally the first stage is higher growth, and the second stage is a lower growth phase. To start off with, we need to estimate the next ten years of cash flows. Where possible we use analyst estimates, but when these aren't available we extrapolate the previous free cash flow (FCF) from the last estimate or reported value. We assume companies with shrinking free cash flow will slow their rate of shrinkage, and that companies with growing free cash flow will see their growth rate slow, over this period. We do this to reflect that growth tends to slow more in the early years than it does in later years.
Generally we assume that a dollar today is more valuable than a dollar in the future, so we need to discount the sum of these future cash flows to arrive at a present value estimate:
10-year free cash flow (FCF) forecast
2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | |
Levered FCF ($, Millions) | US$85.0m | US$45.4m | US$162.0m | US$179.9m | US$215.9m | US$242.8m | US$265.8m | US$285.4m | US$302.3m | US$317.1m |
Growth Rate Estimate Source | Analyst x4 | Analyst x5 | Analyst x2 | Analyst x2 | Analyst x2 | Est @ 12.48% | Est @ 9.48% | Est @ 7.39% | Est @ 5.92% | Est @ 4.90% |
Present Value ($, Millions) Discounted @ 9.3% | US$77.7 | US$38.0 | US$124 | US$126 | US$139 | US$143 | US$143 | US$141 | US$136 | US$131 |
("Est" = FCF growth rate estimated by Simply Wall St)
Present Value of 10-year Cash Flow (PVCF) = US$1.2b
After calculating the present value of future cash flows in the initial 10-year period, we need to calculate the Terminal Value, which accounts for all future cash flows beyond the first stage. For a number of reasons a very conservative growth rate is used that cannot exceed that of a country's GDP growth. In this case we have used the 5-year average of the 10-year government bond yield (2.5%) to estimate future growth. In the same way as with the 10-year 'growth' period, we discount future cash flows to today's value, using a cost of equity of 9.3%.
Terminal Value (TV)= FCF2034 × (1 + g) ÷ (r – g) = US$317m× (1 + 2.5%) ÷ (9.3%– 2.5%) = US$4.8b
Present Value of Terminal Value (PVTV)= TV / (1 + r)10= US$4.8b÷ ( 1 + 9.3%)10= US$2.0b
The total value is the sum of cash flows for the next ten years plus the discounted terminal value, which results in the Total Equity Value, which in this case is US$3.2b. To get the intrinsic value per share, we divide this by the total number of shares outstanding. Relative to the current share price of US$4.6, the company appears quite good value at a 45% discount to where the stock price trades currently. Remember though, that this is just an approximate valuation, and like any complex formula - garbage in, garbage out.
The Assumptions
The calculation above is very dependent on two assumptions. The first is the discount rate and the other is the cash flows. If you don't agree with these result, have a go at the calculation yourself and play with the assumptions. The DCF also does not consider the possible cyclicality of an industry, or a company's future capital requirements, so it does not give a full picture of a company's potential performance. Given that we are looking at Peloton Interactive as potential shareholders, the cost of equity is used as the discount rate, rather than the cost of capital (or weighted average cost of capital, WACC) which accounts for debt. In this calculation we've used 9.3%, which is based on a levered beta of 1.641. Beta is a measure of a stock's volatility, compared to the market as a whole. We get our beta from the industry average beta of globally comparable companies, with an imposed limit between 0.8 and 2.0, which is a reasonable range for a stable business.
SWOT Analysis for Peloton Interactive
Strength
Debt is well covered by earnings.
Weakness
Shareholders have been diluted in the past year.
Opportunity
Forecast to reduce losses next year.
Has sufficient cash runway for more than 3 years based on current free cash flows.
Trading below our estimate of fair value by more than 20%.
Threat
Debt is not well covered by operating cash flow.
Total liabilities exceed total assets, which raises the risk of financial distress.
Not expected to become profitable over the next 3 years.
Looking Ahead:
Although the valuation of a company is important, it ideally won't be the sole piece of analysis you scrutinize for a company. It's not possible to obtain a foolproof valuation with a DCF model. Instead the best use for a DCF model is to test certain assumptions and theories to see if they would lead to the company being undervalued or overvalued. If a company grows at a different rate, or if its cost of equity or risk free rate changes sharply, the output can look very different. Can we work out why the company is trading at a discount to intrinsic value? For Peloton Interactive, we've compiled three fundamental elements you should explore:
Risks: As an example, we've found 5 warning signs for Peloton Interactive (1 is a bit unpleasant!) that you need to consider before investing here.
Management:Have insiders been ramping up their shares to take advantage of the market's sentiment for PTON's future outlook? Check out our management and board analysis with insights on CEO compensation and governance factors.
Other High Quality Alternatives: Do you like a good all-rounder? Explore our interactive list of high quality stocks to get an idea of what else is out there you may be missing!
PS. Simply Wall St updates its DCF calculation for every American stock every day, so if you want to find the intrinsic value of any other stock just search here.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.