An Intrinsic Calculation For MTU Aero Engines AG (ETR:MTX) Suggests It's 31% Undervalued

In this article we are going to estimate the intrinsic value of MTU Aero Engines AG (ETR:MTX) by estimating the company's future cash flows and discounting them to their present value. The Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model is the tool we will apply to do this. Believe it or not, it's not too difficult to follow, as you'll see from our example!

Companies can be valued in a lot of ways, so we would point out that a DCF is not perfect for every situation. If you want to learn more about discounted cash flow, the rationale behind this calculation can be read in detail in the Simply Wall St analysis model.

See our latest analysis for MTU Aero Engines

Crunching The Numbers

We use what is known as a 2-stage model, which simply means we have two different periods of growth rates for the company's cash flows. Generally the first stage is higher growth, and the second stage is a lower growth phase. To begin with, we have to get estimates of the next ten years of cash flows. Where possible we use analyst estimates, but when these aren't available we extrapolate the previous free cash flow (FCF) from the last estimate or reported value. We assume companies with shrinking free cash flow will slow their rate of shrinkage, and that companies with growing free cash flow will see their growth rate slow, over this period. We do this to reflect that growth tends to slow more in the early years than it does in later years.

Generally we assume that a dollar today is more valuable than a dollar in the future, and so the sum of these future cash flows is then discounted to today's value:

10-year free cash flow (FCF) estimate

	2023	2024	2025	2026	2027	2028	2029	2030	2031	2032
Levered FCF (€, Millions)	€369.5m	€501.8m	€630.0m	€722.0m	€795.9m	€852.9m	€895.8m	€927.4m	€950.4m	€967.0m
Growth Rate Estimate Source	Analyst x8	Analyst x8	Analyst x3	Est @ 14.60%	Est @ 10.23%	Est @ 7.17%	Est @ 5.03%	Est @ 3.53%	Est @ 2.48%	Est @ 1.74%
Present Value (€, Millions) Discounted @ 5.1%	€351	€454	€542	€591	€620	€632	€631	€621	€606	€586

("Est" = FCF growth rate estimated by Simply Wall St)
Present Value of 10-year Cash Flow (PVCF) = €5.6b

After calculating the present value of future cash flows in the initial 10-year period, we need to calculate the Terminal Value, which accounts for all future cash flows beyond the first stage. The Gordon Growth formula is used to calculate Terminal Value at a future annual growth rate equal to the 5-year average of the 10-year government bond yield of 0.03%. We discount the terminal cash flows to today's value at a cost of equity of 5.1%.

Terminal Value (TV)= FCF₂₀₃₂ × (1 + g) ÷ (r – g) = €967m× (1 + 0.03%) ÷ (5.1%– 0.03%) = €19b

Present Value of Terminal Value (PVTV)= TV / (1 + r)¹⁰= €19b÷ ( 1 + 5.1%)¹⁰= €11b

The total value is the sum of cash flows for the next ten years plus the discounted terminal value, which results in the Total Equity Value, which in this case is €17b. The last step is to then divide the equity value by the number of shares outstanding. Relative to the current share price of €221, the company appears quite good value at a 31% discount to where the stock price trades currently. Remember though, that this is just an approximate valuation, and like any complex formula - garbage in, garbage out.

dcf

The Assumptions

We would point out that the most important inputs to a discounted cash flow are the discount rate and of course the actual cash flows. Part of investing is coming up with your own evaluation of a company's future performance, so try the calculation yourself and check your own assumptions. The DCF also does not consider the possible cyclicality of an industry, or a company's future capital requirements, so it does not give a full picture of a company's potential performance. Given that we are looking at MTU Aero Engines as potential shareholders, the cost of equity is used as the discount rate, rather than the cost of capital (or weighted average cost of capital, WACC) which accounts for debt. In this calculation we've used 5.1%, which is based on a levered beta of 0.849. Beta is a measure of a stock's volatility, compared to the market as a whole. We get our beta from the industry average beta of globally comparable companies, with an imposed limit between 0.8 and 2.0, which is a reasonable range for a stable business.

SWOT Analysis for MTU Aero Engines

Strength

• Earnings growth over the past year exceeded its 5-year average.

• Debt is not viewed as a risk.

• Dividends are covered by earnings and cash flows.

Weakness

• Earnings growth over the past year underperformed the Aerospace & Defense industry.

• Dividend is low compared to the top 25% of dividend payers in the Aerospace & Defense market.

Opportunity

• Annual earnings are forecast to grow faster than the German market.

• Trading below our estimate of fair value by more than 20%.

Threat

• Revenue is forecast to grow slower than 20% per year.

Looking Ahead:

Whilst important, the DCF calculation ideally won't be the sole piece of analysis you scrutinize for a company. It's not possible to obtain a foolproof valuation with a DCF model. Rather it should be seen as a guide to "what assumptions need to be true for this stock to be under/overvalued?" If a company grows at a different rate, or if its cost of equity or risk free rate changes sharply, the output can look very different. What is the reason for the share price sitting below the intrinsic value? For MTU Aero Engines, we've compiled three essential items you should further examine:

1. Risks: Case in point, we've spotted 1 warning sign for MTU Aero Engines you should be aware of.

2. Future Earnings: How does MTX's growth rate compare to its peers and the wider market? Dig deeper into the analyst consensus number for the upcoming years by interacting with our free analyst growth expectation chart.

3. Other High Quality Alternatives: Do you like a good all-rounder? Explore our interactive list of high quality stocks to get an idea of what else is out there you may be missing!

PS. Simply Wall St updates its DCF calculation for every German stock every day, so if you want to find the intrinsic value of any other stock just search here.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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