Industrias Bachoco, S.A.B. de C.V. (NYSE:IBA) Shares Could Be 30% Below Their Intrinsic Value Estimate

Today we will run through one way of estimating the intrinsic value of Industrias Bachoco, S.A.B. de C.V. (NYSE:IBA) by projecting its future cash flows and then discounting them to today's value. One way to achieve this is by employing the Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model. It may sound complicated, but actually it is quite simple!

Companies can be valued in a lot of ways, so we would point out that a DCF is not perfect for every situation. Anyone interested in learning a bit more about intrinsic value should have a read of the Simply Wall St analysis model.

See our latest analysis for Industrias Bachoco. de

The model

We use what is known as a 2-stage model, which simply means we have two different periods of growth rates for the company's cash flows. Generally the first stage is higher growth, and the second stage is a lower growth phase. In the first stage we need to estimate the cash flows to the business over the next ten years. Where possible we use analyst estimates, but when these aren't available we extrapolate the previous free cash flow (FCF) from the last estimate or reported value. We assume companies with shrinking free cash flow will slow their rate of shrinkage, and that companies with growing free cash flow will see their growth rate slow, over this period. We do this to reflect that growth tends to slow more in the early years than it does in later years.

Generally we assume that a dollar today is more valuable than a dollar in the future, so we need to discount the sum of these future cash flows to arrive at a present value estimate:

10-year free cash flow (FCF) forecast

	2022	2023	2024	2025	2026	2027	2028	2029	2030	2031
Levered FCF (MX$, Millions)	Mex$2.66b	Mex$2.83b	Mex$2.84b	Mex$2.93b	Mex$3.00b	Mex$3.07b	Mex$3.14b	Mex$3.21b	Mex$3.27b	Mex$3.34b
Growth Rate Estimate Source	Analyst x4	Analyst x4	Analyst x1	Analyst x1	Est @ 2.49%	Est @ 2.33%	Est @ 2.22%	Est @ 2.14%	Est @ 2.09%	Est @ 2.05%
Present Value (MX$, Millions) Discounted @ 6.5%	Mex$2.5k	Mex$2.5k	Mex$2.4k	Mex$2.3k	Mex$2.2k	Mex$2.1k	Mex$2.0k	Mex$1.9k	Mex$1.9k	Mex$1.8k

("Est" = FCF growth rate estimated by Simply Wall St)
Present Value of 10-year Cash Flow (PVCF) = Mex$21b

After calculating the present value of future cash flows in the initial 10-year period, we need to calculate the Terminal Value, which accounts for all future cash flows beyond the first stage. For a number of reasons a very conservative growth rate is used that cannot exceed that of a country's GDP growth. In this case we have used the 5-year average of the 10-year government bond yield (2.0%) to estimate future growth. In the same way as with the 10-year 'growth' period, we discount future cash flows to today's value, using a cost of equity of 6.5%.

Terminal Value (TV)= FCF₂₀₃₁ × (1 + g) ÷ (r – g) = Mex$3.3b× (1 + 2.0%) ÷ (6.5%– 2.0%) = Mex$74b

Present Value of Terminal Value (PVTV)= TV / (1 + r)¹⁰= Mex$74b÷ ( 1 + 6.5%)¹⁰= Mex$40b

The total value, or equity value, is then the sum of the present value of the future cash flows, which in this case is Mex$61b. The last step is to then divide the equity value by the number of shares outstanding. Compared to the current share price of US$40.8, the company appears a touch undervalued at a 30% discount to where the stock price trades currently. Valuations are imprecise instruments though, rather like a telescope - move a few degrees and end up in a different galaxy. Do keep this in mind.

dcf

The assumptions

Now the most important inputs to a discounted cash flow are the discount rate, and of course, the actual cash flows. Part of investing is coming up with your own evaluation of a company's future performance, so try the calculation yourself and check your own assumptions. The DCF also does not consider the possible cyclicality of an industry, or a company's future capital requirements, so it does not give a full picture of a company's potential performance. Given that we are looking at Industrias Bachoco. de as potential shareholders, the cost of equity is used as the discount rate, rather than the cost of capital (or weighted average cost of capital, WACC) which accounts for debt. In this calculation we've used 6.5%, which is based on a levered beta of 0.800. Beta is a measure of a stock's volatility, compared to the market as a whole. We get our beta from the industry average beta of globally comparable companies, with an imposed limit between 0.8 and 2.0, which is a reasonable range for a stable business.

Moving On:

Although the valuation of a company is important, it is only one of many factors that you need to assess for a company. It's not possible to obtain a foolproof valuation with a DCF model. Preferably you'd apply different cases and assumptions and see how they would impact the company's valuation. For example, changes in the company's cost of equity or the risk free rate can significantly impact the valuation. Can we work out why the company is trading at a discount to intrinsic value? For Industrias Bachoco. de, there are three important aspects you should consider:

1. Risks: Case in point, we've spotted 2 warning signs for Industrias Bachoco. de you should be aware of, and 1 of them shouldn't be ignored.

2. Future Earnings: How does IBA's growth rate compare to its peers and the wider market? Dig deeper into the analyst consensus number for the upcoming years by interacting with our free analyst growth expectation chart.

3. Other Solid Businesses: Low debt, high returns on equity and good past performance are fundamental to a strong business. Why not explore our interactive list of stocks with solid business fundamentals to see if there are other companies you may not have considered!

PS. The Simply Wall St app conducts a discounted cash flow valuation for every stock on the NYSE every day. If you want to find the calculation for other stocks just search here.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.