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Hologic (HOLX) Stock Up 5.6% YTD: Will the Rally Continue?

Hologic, Inc. HOLX shares have gained 5.6% year to date compared with the industry’s increase of 3.1%. The Medical sector has declined 2.7% in the said time frame. With a market capitalization of $19.48 billion, the average volume of shares traded in the last three months was about 1.4 million.

The higher capital equipment revenues, procedural volumes return and an acceleration from the new business lines continue to drive this Zacks Rank #2 (Buy) company’s performance. Its earnings increased 23.4% in the last five years, better than the industry’s average of 4.4%.

Hologic’s ROE for the trailing 12 months was 19.4%, better than the industry average of (34.6%). It has a VGM Score of B. The VGM Score rates stocks on their combined weighted styles, helping to identify those with the most attractive value, best growth and most promising momentum.

Will the Upside Continue?

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Hologic’s 2024 earnings is pegged at $4.09, indicating a 5.1% increase from the year-ago reported figure. The consensus estimate for 2024 revenues is pegged at $4.15, indicating a year-over-year improvement of 3.7%. It has a Growth Score of B. The Growth Style Score analyzes growth prospects of the company.

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The company’s expanded global installed base of Panthers, over 3,250 strong represents the catalyst for the division's sustained growth. The superior workflow of the Panther combined with the broad menu of nearly 20 FDA-approved assays across the Panther and Panther Fusion systems, creates tremendous value for customers and differentiates them from competitors.

To streamline its operations and reduce cost of revenues, Hologic has been adopting a few significant strategies in the past few years. The company invested deliberately and opportunistically in commercial areas where management recognized a good return. These include Hologic’s Genius marketing campaign in Breast Health, cervical cancer co-testing initiatives in Diagnostics and efforts to gain competitive market share with NovaSure. Per management, these strategic initiatives are already paying off through increased brand awareness, market share gains and price stability, all of which will contribute to the company’s higher sales.

In this regard, the company’s international sales have been a major catalyst in the past three years, with the major driver being the molecular diagnostics business. Hologic is focused entirely on commercial infrastructure. The company has been progressing with respect to the placement of Panther instruments across the globe.

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Zacks Investment Research

Image Source: Zacks Investment Research

Hologic is witnessing encouraging uptake of its newer assays like vaginitis panel and virals and tremendous international expansion opportunities. Hologic is also expanding internationally in breast health with a focus to continue gaining market share with the existing 3D and upgradable 2D mammography products, the same products that have established leadership positions in the United States.

Hologic ended second-quarter fiscal 2023 with cash and cash equivalents of $2.58 billion compared with $2.34 billion at the end of first-quarter fiscal 2023. Total long-term debt (including the current portion) was $2.79 billion at the end of the fiscal second quarter compared with $2.80 at the end of the fiscal first quarter. Although the quarter’s total debt was higher than the cash and cash equivalent level, the company has a short-term payable debt of $26 million on its balance sheet. This can be treated as a positive for the company amid the ongoing economic downturn, as it is holding sufficient cash for debt repayment.

Estimate Trends

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for HOLX’s 2023 and 2024 has moved 4% and 2.3% north, respectively, in the past 90 days, reflecting analysts’ optimism.

Other Key Picks

Hologic carries a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy).

Some other top-ranked stocks in the broader medical space are Addus Homecare Corporation ADUS, Merit Medical Systems, Inc. MMSI and Boston Scientific, Inc. BSX.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Addus Homecare’s 2023 earnings indicates 10.9% year-over-year growth. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for ADUS’s 2023 earnings has moved 0.5% north in the past 30 days.

Addus Homecare has a long-term estimated growth rate of 11.8%. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.

Merit Medical reported a first-quarter 2023 adjusted EPS of 64 cents, beating the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 16.4%. Revenues of $297.6 million surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 5.9%. It currently carries a Zacks Rank #2.

Merit Medical has a long-term estimated growth rate of 11%. MMSI’s earnings surpassed estimates in all the trailing four quarters, the average surprise being 20.2%.

Boston Scientific, carrying a Zacks Rank #2 at present, has a long-term estimated growth rate of 11.5%. BSX’s earnings surpassed estimates in two of the trailing four quarters and missed in two, the average surprise being 11.9%.

BSX has gained 31.6% compared with the industry’s 30% decline in the past year

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