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If You Had Bought Shoe Carnival (NASDAQ:SCVL) Stock Five Years Ago, You Could Pocket A 37% Gain Today

Simply Wall St
·3-min read

Shoe Carnival, Inc. (NASDAQ:SCVL) shareholders might be concerned after seeing the share price drop 11% in the last month. But at least the stock is up over the last five years. In that time, it is up 37%, which isn't bad, but is below the market return of 61%.

View our latest analysis for Shoe Carnival

To paraphrase Benjamin Graham: Over the short term the market is a voting machine, but over the long term it's a weighing machine. By comparing earnings per share (EPS) and share price changes over time, we can get a feel for how investor attitudes to a company have morphed over time.

During five years of share price growth, Shoe Carnival achieved compound earnings per share (EPS) growth of 20% per year. This EPS growth is higher than the 6.5% average annual increase in the share price. Therefore, it seems the market has become relatively pessimistic about the company. This cautious sentiment is reflected in its (fairly low) P/E ratio of 11.91.

The company's earnings per share (over time) is depicted in the image below (click to see the exact numbers).

NasdaqGS:SCVL Past and Future Earnings, February 26th 2020
NasdaqGS:SCVL Past and Future Earnings, February 26th 2020

We know that Shoe Carnival has improved its bottom line lately, but is it going to grow revenue? If you're interested, you could check this free report showing consensus revenue forecasts.

What About Dividends?

As well as measuring the share price return, investors should also consider the total shareholder return (TSR). The TSR is a return calculation that accounts for the value of cash dividends (assuming that any dividend received was reinvested) and the calculated value of any discounted capital raisings and spin-offs. It's fair to say that the TSR gives a more complete picture for stocks that pay a dividend. We note that for Shoe Carnival the TSR over the last 5 years was 45%, which is better than the share price return mentioned above. The dividends paid by the company have thusly boosted the total shareholder return.

A Different Perspective

Shoe Carnival shareholders are down 12% for the year (even including dividends) , but the market itself is up 13%. Even the share prices of good stocks drop sometimes, but we want to see improvements in the fundamental metrics of a business, before getting too interested. On the bright side, long term shareholders have made money, with a gain of 7.7% per year over half a decade. If the fundamental data continues to indicate long term sustainable growth, the current sell-off could be an opportunity worth considering. Most investors take the time to check the data on insider transactions. You can click here to see if insiders have been buying or selling.

If you are like me, then you will not want to miss this free list of growing companies that insiders are buying.

Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on US exchanges.

If you spot an error that warrants correction, please contact the editor at editorial-team@simplywallst.com. This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. Simply Wall St has no position in the stocks mentioned.

We aim to bring you long-term focused research analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Thank you for reading.