The Goodyear Tire & Rubber Company (NASDAQ:GT) Shares Could Be 29% Below Their Intrinsic Value Estimate

Key Insights

• Using the 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity, Goodyear Tire & Rubber fair value estimate is US$15.15

• Goodyear Tire & Rubber's US$10.70 share price signals that it might be 29% undervalued

• The US$13.29 analyst price target for GT is 12% less than our estimate of fair value

In this article we are going to estimate the intrinsic value of The Goodyear Tire & Rubber Company (NASDAQ:GT) by taking the forecast future cash flows of the company and discounting them back to today's value. The Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model is the tool we will apply to do this. Don't get put off by the jargon, the math behind it is actually quite straightforward.

Remember though, that there are many ways to estimate a company's value, and a DCF is just one method. If you still have some burning questions about this type of valuation, take a look at the Simply Wall St analysis model.

See our latest analysis for Goodyear Tire & Rubber

The Model

We're using the 2-stage growth model, which simply means we take in account two stages of company's growth. In the initial period the company may have a higher growth rate and the second stage is usually assumed to have a stable growth rate. To begin with, we have to get estimates of the next ten years of cash flows. Where possible we use analyst estimates, but when these aren't available we extrapolate the previous free cash flow (FCF) from the last estimate or reported value. We assume companies with shrinking free cash flow will slow their rate of shrinkage, and that companies with growing free cash flow will see their growth rate slow, over this period. We do this to reflect that growth tends to slow more in the early years than it does in later years.

Generally we assume that a dollar today is more valuable than a dollar in the future, and so the sum of these future cash flows is then discounted to today's value:

10-year free cash flow (FCF) forecast

	2023	2024	2025	2026	2027	2028	2029	2030	2031	2032
Levered FCF ($, Millions)	US$94.0m	US$383.0m	US$468.0m	US$531.1m	US$584.6m	US$629.4m	US$667.1m	US$699.2m	US$727.1m	US$752.0m
Growth Rate Estimate Source	Analyst x1	Analyst x2	Analyst x2	Est @ 13.49%	Est @ 10.07%	Est @ 7.67%	Est @ 5.99%	Est @ 4.81%	Est @ 3.99%	Est @ 3.41%
Present Value ($, Millions) Discounted @ 14%	US$82.5	US$295	US$316	US$315	US$304	US$288	US$267	US$246	US$224	US$204

("Est" = FCF growth rate estimated by Simply Wall St)
Present Value of 10-year Cash Flow (PVCF) = US$2.5b

We now need to calculate the Terminal Value, which accounts for all the future cash flows after this ten year period. For a number of reasons a very conservative growth rate is used that cannot exceed that of a country's GDP growth. In this case we have used the 5-year average of the 10-year government bond yield (2.1%) to estimate future growth. In the same way as with the 10-year 'growth' period, we discount future cash flows to today's value, using a cost of equity of 14%.

Terminal Value (TV)= FCF₂₀₃₂ × (1 + g) ÷ (r – g) = US$752m× (1 + 2.1%) ÷ (14%– 2.1%) = US$6.5b

Present Value of Terminal Value (PVTV)= TV / (1 + r)¹⁰= US$6.5b÷ ( 1 + 14%)¹⁰= US$1.8b

The total value, or equity value, is then the sum of the present value of the future cash flows, which in this case is US$4.3b. In the final step we divide the equity value by the number of shares outstanding. Relative to the current share price of US$10.7, the company appears a touch undervalued at a 29% discount to where the stock price trades currently. Valuations are imprecise instruments though, rather like a telescope - move a few degrees and end up in a different galaxy. Do keep this in mind.

dcf

The Assumptions

We would point out that the most important inputs to a discounted cash flow are the discount rate and of course the actual cash flows. If you don't agree with these result, have a go at the calculation yourself and play with the assumptions. The DCF also does not consider the possible cyclicality of an industry, or a company's future capital requirements, so it does not give a full picture of a company's potential performance. Given that we are looking at Goodyear Tire & Rubber as potential shareholders, the cost of equity is used as the discount rate, rather than the cost of capital (or weighted average cost of capital, WACC) which accounts for debt. In this calculation we've used 14%, which is based on a levered beta of 2.000. Beta is a measure of a stock's volatility, compared to the market as a whole. We get our beta from the industry average beta of globally comparable companies, with an imposed limit between 0.8 and 2.0, which is a reasonable range for a stable business.

SWOT Analysis for Goodyear Tire & Rubber

Strength

• No major strengths identified for GT.

Weakness

• Earnings declined over the past year.

• Interest payments on debt are not well covered.

Opportunity

• Annual earnings are forecast to grow faster than the American market.

• Good value based on P/E ratio and estimated fair value.

Threat

• Debt is not well covered by operating cash flow.

• Annual revenue is forecast to grow slower than the American market.

Next Steps:

Valuation is only one side of the coin in terms of building your investment thesis, and it shouldn't be the only metric you look at when researching a company. It's not possible to obtain a foolproof valuation with a DCF model. Preferably you'd apply different cases and assumptions and see how they would impact the company's valuation. If a company grows at a different rate, or if its cost of equity or risk free rate changes sharply, the output can look very different. What is the reason for the share price sitting below the intrinsic value? For Goodyear Tire & Rubber, we've put together three additional elements you should further research:

1. Risks: Every company has them, and we've spotted 2 warning signs for Goodyear Tire & Rubber (of which 1 doesn't sit too well with us!) you should know about.

2. Future Earnings: How does GT's growth rate compare to its peers and the wider market? Dig deeper into the analyst consensus number for the upcoming years by interacting with our free analyst growth expectation chart.

3. Other Solid Businesses: Low debt, high returns on equity and good past performance are fundamental to a strong business. Why not explore our interactive list of stocks with solid business fundamentals to see if there are other companies you may not have considered!

PS. Simply Wall St updates its DCF calculation for every American stock every day, so if you want to find the intrinsic value of any other stock just search here.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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