Australia markets open in 5 hours 40 minutes
  • ALL ORDS

    7,537.90
    -165.00 (-2.14%)
     
  • AUD/USD

    0.7242
    -0.0027 (-0.37%)
     
  • ASX 200

    7,248.20
    -155.50 (-2.10%)
     
  • OIL

    70.35
    -1.62 (-2.25%)
     
  • GOLD

    1,762.60
    +11.20 (+0.64%)
     
  • BTC-AUD

    60,707.49
    -5,269.65 (-7.99%)
     
  • CMC Crypto 200

    1,097.17
    -37.21 (-3.28%)
     

Goldman Almost Doubles Asia Coal Forecast on Supply Crunch

  • Oops!
    Something went wrong.
    Please try again later.
  • Oops!
    Something went wrong.
    Please try again later.
·2-min read
In this article:
  • Oops!
    Something went wrong.
    Please try again later.
  • Oops!
    Something went wrong.
    Please try again later.

(Bloomberg) -- Goldman Sachs Group Inc. almost doubled its outlook for Asian coal prices as a global recovery in power demand and production issues in key mining countries combine to make supply scarce.

Benchmark Newcastle thermal coal will average $190 a ton in the fourth quarter, up from a previous forecast of $100, to meet demand in the northern hemisphere winter and taking account of a global rally in natural gas, analysts Paul Young and Hugo Nicolaci said Tuesday in a research note. The bank lifted its 2022 forecast to $120 a ton from $85.

Global coal exports from major producers were up about 8% in May and June, as a rebound in Indonesian supply was dimmed by lower output in Australia, South Africa and Colombia. Meanwhile, purchases in the big importers including Japan, South Korea and China were up 16% in June. Newcastle coal rose to $181 a ton as of Sept. 13, according to weekly data published by China Coal Resource.

The bank also lifted forecasts for coking coal used to make steel, with fourth-quarter prices now seen 48% higher at $230 a ton, while it raised its 2022 average by 13% to $175. Australian coking coal futures on the Singapore Exchange settled at $365.50 a ton on Tuesday.

Gains have been supported by a decline in Chinese domestic coal production and the strength of demand from nations including Japan, Taiwan and India, according to the analysts. Chinese steel production curbs should help ease prices toward the end of the year, Goldman said.

Goldman also raised target prices for shares of Australian miners including South32 Ltd., Whitehaven Coal Ltd. and Coronado Global Resources Inc.

(A previous version of this story corrected details of Newcastle coal’s price move in the third paragraph.)

(Updates to add details in fifth paragraph)

More stories like this are available on bloomberg.com

Subscribe now to stay ahead with the most trusted business news source.

©2021 Bloomberg L.P.

Our goal is to create a safe and engaging place for users to connect over interests and passions. In order to improve our community experience, we are temporarily suspending article commenting