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Forex: Dollar Looks to Fed Minutes for Direction, Pound Eyes BOE Vote
The Euro may fall if Germany’s ZEW investor confidence gauge disappoints expectations. The Yen rose after the BOJ released minutes from January’s meeting.
Talking Points
FOMC Minutes May Boost US Dollar on Signs of Early Stimulus Unwind
British Pound to Fall if BOE Minutes Hint at Near-Term QE Expansion
The spotlight turns the Federal Reserve as it publishes minutes from January’s FOMC meeting. Traders will be most interested in the tone of discussion surrounding the possible tapering of the size of asset purchases – an approach that has emerged in several Fed officials’ comments over recent weeks – and the possibilities for the timing of such an outcome.
Bond markets suggest investors are pricing in inflation at an average of 2.35 percent over the Fed’s target one- to two-year time horizon, up from 1.47 percent at the beginning of the year. That puts a move above 2.5 percent – the FOMC’s threshold for maintaining the current accommodative posture – well within reach over the coming months. This means Ben Bernanke and company may be pressured to reduce stimulus far earlier than previously expected, boosting the US Dollar.
Minutes from February’s Bank of England policy meeting headline the economic calendar in European hours. Although much of the central bank’s overall position will have been well-telegraphed already by last week’s quarterly inflation report, the vote count for and against additional QE will be interesting. This will help investors gauge the likelihood of additional stimulus in the near term, pre-dating the BOE’s takeover by Governor-designate Mark Carney in the summer. Needless to say, any such cues are likely to further punish the British Pound. We continue to hold short GBPUSD.
Asia Session:
GMT | CCY | EVENT | ACT | EXP | PREV |
21:45 | NZD | Producer Prices - Outputs (QoQ) (4Q) | -0.1% | - | -0.9% |
21:45 | NZD | Producer Prices - Inputs (QoQ) (4Q) | -0.3% | - | -1.0% |
23:00 | AUD | Conference Board Leading Index (DEC) | -0.1% | - | -0.2% |
23:30 | AUD | Westpac Leading Index (MoM) (DEC) | 0.2% | - | 0.7% (R+) |
23:50 | JPY | Merch Trade Balance Total (¥) (JAN) | -1629.4B | -1379.6B | -643.3B (R-) |
23:50 | JPY | Adj Merch Trade Balance (¥) ) (JAN) | -678.9B | -586.7B | -783.8B (R+) |
23:50 | JPY | Merchandise Trade Imports (YoY) (JAN) | 7.3% | 2.1% | 1.9% |
23:50 | JPY | Merchandise Trade Exports (YoY) (JAN) | 6.4% | 5.6% | -5.8% |
0:00 | AUD | DEWR Internet Skilled Vacancies (MoM) (JAN) | -0.7% | - | -1.9% (R+) |
0:30 | AUD | Wage Cost Index (QoQ) (4Q) | 0.8% | 0.8% | 0.7% |
0:30 | AUD | Wage Cost Index (YoY) (4Q) | 3.4% | 3.4% | 3.7% |
2:00 | CNY | Actual FDI (YoY) (JAN) | -7.3% | -4.2% | -4.5% |
4:30 | JPY | All Industry Activity Index (MoM) (DEC) | 1.8% | 1.7% | -0.4% (R-) |
7:00 | JPY | Convenience Store Sales (YoY) (JAN) | -0.9% | - | -2.0% |
Euro Session:
GMT | CCY | EVENT | EXP/ACT | PREV | IMPACT |
7:00 | EUR | German Producer Prices (MoM) (JAN) | 0.8% (A) | -0.3% | Medium |
7:00 | EUR | German Producer Prices (YoY) (JAN) | 1.7% (A) | 1.5% | Medium |
7:00 | EUR | German Consumer Price Index (MoM) (JAN F) | -0.5% (A) | -0.5% | Medium |
7:00 | EUR | German Consumer Price Index (YoY) (JAN F) | 1.7% (A) | 1.7% | Medium |
7:00 | EUR | German CPI - EU Harmonised (MoM) (JAN F) | -0.7% (A) | -0.7% | Low |
7:00 | EUR | German CPI - EU Harmonised (YoY) (JAN F) | 1.9% (A) | 1.9% | Low |
9:30 | GBP | Bank of England Releases Feb MPC Minutes | - | - | High |
9:30 | GBP | Jobless Claims Change (JAN) | -5.5K | -12.1K | High |
9:30 | GBP | Claimant Count Rate (JAN) | 4.8% | 4.8% | Medium |
9:30 | GBP | Employment Change (3M/3M) (DEC) | 117K | 90K | Medium |
9:30 | GBP | Average Weekly Earnings (3M/YoY) (DEC) | 1.4% | 1.5% | Low |
9:30 | GBP | Weekly Earnings ex Bonus (3M/YoY) (DEC) | 1.3% | 1.4% | Low |
9:30 | GBP | ILO Unemployment Rate (3M) (DEC) | 7.7% | 7.7% | Medium |
10:00 | CHF | ZEW Survey (Expectations) (FEB) | - | -6.9 | Low |
Critical Levels:
CCY | SUPPORT | RESISTANCE |
EURUSD | 1.3346 | 1.3438 |
GBPUSD | 1.5270 | 1.5481 |
--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for Dailyfx.com
To contact Ilya, e-mail ispivak@dailyfx.com. Follow Ilya on Twitter at @IlyaSpivak
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