Yahoo Finance Estimating The Fair Value Of NagaCorp Ltd (HKG:3918)
In this article I am going to calculate the intrinsic value of NagaCorp Ltd (HKG:3918) by taking the foreast future cash flows of the company and discounting them back to today’s value. This is done using the discounted cash flows (DCF) model. It may sound complicated, but actually it is quite simple! Anyone interested in learning a bit more about intrinsic value should have a read of the Simply Wall St analysis model. Please also note that this article was written in November 2018 so be sure check out the updated calculation by following the link below.
View our latest analysis for NagaCorp
Step by step through the calculation
I use what is known as a 2-stage model, which simply means we have two different periods of varying growth rates for the company’s cash flows. Generally the first stage is higher growth, and the second stage is a more stable growth phase. To begin with we have to get estimates of the next five years of cash flows. For this I used the consensus of the analysts covering the stock, as you can see below. I then discount the sum of these cash flows to arrive at a present value estimate.
5-year cash flow forecast
2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | |
Levered FCF ($, Millions) | $307.70 | $363.80 | $429.28 | $502.26 | $582.62 |
Source | Analyst x1 | Analyst x1 | Est @ 18%, capped from 26.05% | Est @ 17%, capped from 26.05% | Est @ 16%, capped from 26.05% |
Present Value Discounted @ 13.56% | $270.96 | $282.12 | $293.15 | $302.04 | $308.53 |
Present Value of 5-year Cash Flow (PVCF)= US$1.5b
The second stage is also known as Terminal Value, this is the business’s cash flow after the first stage. The Gordon Growth formula is used to calculate Terminal Value at an annual growth rate equal to the 10-year government bond rate of 2.2%. We discount this to today’s value at a cost of equity of 13.6%.
Terminal Value (TV) = FCF2022 × (1 + g) ÷ (r – g) = US$583m × (1 + 2.2%) ÷ (13.6% – 2.2%) = US$5.2b
Present Value of Terminal Value (PVTV) = TV / (1 + r)5 = US$5.2b ÷ ( 1 + 13.6%)5 = US$2.8b
The total value, or equity value, is then the sum of the present value of the cash flows, which in this case is US$4.2b. The last step is to then divide the equity value by the number of shares outstanding. If the stock is an depositary receipt (represents a specified number of shares in a foreign corporation) then we use the equivalent number. This results in an intrinsic value in the company’s reported currency of $0.98. However, 3918’s primary listing is in Cambodia, and 1 share of 3918 in USD represents 7.829 ( USD/ HKD) share of SEHK:3918, so the intrinsic value per share in HKD is HK$7.64. Relative to the current share price of HK$7.62, the stock is about right, perhaps slightly undervalued at a 0.2% discount to what it is available for right now.
Important assumptions
The calculation above is very dependent on two assumptions. The first is the discount rate and the other is the cash flows. If you don’t agree with my result, have a go at the calculation yourself and play with the assumptions. Because we are looking at NagaCorp as potential shareholders, the cost of equity is used as the discount rate, rather than the cost of capital (or weighed average cost of capital, WACC) which accounts for debt. In this calculation I’ve used 13.6%, which is based on a levered beta of 1.456. This is derived from the Bottom-Up Beta method based on comparable companies, with an imposed limit between 0.8 and 2.0, which is a reasonable range for a stable business.
Next Steps:
Whilst important, DCF calculation shouldn’t be the only metric you look at when researching a company. For 3918, there are three relevant aspects you should further examine:
Financial Health: Does 3918 have a healthy balance sheet? Take a look at our free balance sheet analysis with six simple checks on key factors like leverage and risk.
Future Earnings: How does 3918’s growth rate compare to its peers and the wider market? Dig deeper into the analyst consensus number for the upcoming years by interacting with our free analyst growth expectation chart.
Other High Quality Alternatives: Are there other high quality stocks you could be holding instead of 3918? Explore our interactive list of high quality stocks to get an idea of what else is out there you may be missing!
PS. The Simply Wall St app conducts a discounted cash flow for every stock on the HKG every 6 hours. If you want to find the calculation for other stocks just search here.
To help readers see past the short term volatility of the financial market, we aim to bring you a long-term focused research analysis purely driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis does not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements.
The author is an independent contributor and at the time of publication had no position in the stocks mentioned. For errors that warrant correction please contact the editor at editorial-team@simplywallst.com.
