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Does The Market Have A Low Tolerance For Horizon Oil Limited's (ASX:HZN) Mixed Fundamentals?

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Horizon Oil (ASX:HZN) has had a rough month with its share price down 4.4%. We, however decided to study the company's financials to determine if they have got anything to do with the price decline. Fundamentals usually dictate market outcomes so it makes sense to study the company's financials. Particularly, we will be paying attention to Horizon Oil's ROE today.

ROE or return on equity is a useful tool to assess how effectively a company can generate returns on the investment it received from its shareholders. In simpler terms, it measures the profitability of a company in relation to shareholder's equity.

Check out our latest analysis for Horizon Oil

How Is ROE Calculated?

The formula for return on equity is:

Return on Equity = Net Profit (from continuing operations) ÷ Shareholders' Equity

So, based on the above formula, the ROE for Horizon Oil is:

4.4% = US$4.9m ÷ US$110m (Based on the trailing twelve months to June 2021).

The 'return' is the yearly profit. So, this means that for every A$1 of its shareholder's investments, the company generates a profit of A$0.04.

What Has ROE Got To Do With Earnings Growth?

Thus far, we have learned that ROE measures how efficiently a company is generating its profits. Depending on how much of these profits the company reinvests or "retains", and how effectively it does so, we are then able to assess a company’s earnings growth potential. Generally speaking, other things being equal, firms with a high return on equity and profit retention, have a higher growth rate than firms that don’t share these attributes.

Horizon Oil's Earnings Growth And 4.4% ROE

At first glance, Horizon Oil's ROE doesn't look very promising. However, its ROE is similar to the industry average of 4.9%, so we won't completely dismiss the company. Looking at Horizon Oil's exceptional 50% five-year net income growth in particular, we are definitely impressed. Considering the moderately low ROE, it is quite possible that there might be some other aspects that are positively influencing the company's earnings growth. For instance, the company has a low payout ratio or is being managed efficiently.

Next, on comparing with the industry net income growth, we found that Horizon Oil's growth is quite high when compared to the industry average growth of 14% in the same period, which is great to see.

past-earnings-growth
past-earnings-growth

Earnings growth is a huge factor in stock valuation. The investor should try to establish if the expected growth or decline in earnings, whichever the case may be, is priced in. By doing so, they will have an idea if the stock is headed into clear blue waters or if swampy waters await. Has the market priced in the future outlook for HZN? You can find out in our latest intrinsic value infographic research report

Is Horizon Oil Efficiently Re-investing Its Profits?

The really high three-year median payout ratio of 612% for Horizon Oil suggests that the company is paying its shareholders more than what it is earning. However, this hasn't hampered its ability to grow as we saw earlier. Having said that, the high payout ratio is definitely risky and something to keep an eye on. Our risks dashboard should have the 4 risks we have identified for Horizon Oil.

Summary

Overall, we have mixed feelings about Horizon Oil. Although the company has shown a pretty impressive growth in earnings, yet the low ROE and the low rate of reinvestment makes us skeptical about the continuity of that growth, especially when or if the business comes to face any threats. Until now, we have only just grazed the surface of the company's past performance by looking at the company's fundamentals. So it may be worth checking this free detailed graph of Horizon Oil's past earnings, as well as revenue and cash flows to get a deeper insight into the company's performance.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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