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By buying an index fund, investors can approximate the average market return. But if you pick the right individual stocks, you could make more than that. For example, Nufarm Limited (ASX:NUF) shareholders have seen the share price rise 37% over three years, well in excess of the market return (15%, not including dividends). However, more recent returns haven't been as impressive as that, with the stock returning just 25% in the last year , including dividends .
While this past week has detracted from the company's three-year return, let's look at the recent trends of the underlying business and see if the gains have been in alignment.
While markets are a powerful pricing mechanism, share prices reflect investor sentiment, not just underlying business performance. One imperfect but simple way to consider how the market perception of a company has shifted is to compare the change in the earnings per share (EPS) with the share price movement.
During three years of share price growth, Nufarm moved from a loss to profitability. So we would expect a higher share price over the period.
The company's earnings per share (over time) is depicted in the image below (click to see the exact numbers).
We consider it positive that insiders have made significant purchases in the last year. Even so, future earnings will be far more important to whether current shareholders make money. It might be well worthwhile taking a look at our free report on Nufarm's earnings, revenue and cash flow.
A Different Perspective
It's good to see that Nufarm has rewarded shareholders with a total shareholder return of 25% in the last twelve months. Of course, that includes the dividend. That certainly beats the loss of about 5% per year over the last half decade. We generally put more weight on the long term performance over the short term, but the recent improvement could hint at a (positive) inflection point within the business. It's always interesting to track share price performance over the longer term. But to understand Nufarm better, we need to consider many other factors. For example, we've discovered 1 warning sign for Nufarm that you should be aware of before investing here.
Nufarm is not the only stock insiders are buying. So take a peek at this free list of growing companies with insider buying.
Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on AU exchanges.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.