Momentum investing is all about the idea of following a stock's recent trend, which can be in either direction. In the 'long' context, investors will essentially be "buying high, but hoping to sell even higher." And for investors following this methodology, taking advantage of trends in a stock's price is key; once a stock establishes a course, it is more than likely to continue moving in that direction. The goal is that once a stock heads down a fixed path, it will lead to timely and profitable trades.
While many investors like to look for momentum in stocks, this can be very tough to define. There is a lot of debate surrounding which metrics are the best to focus on and which are poor quality indicators of future performance. The Zacks Momentum Style Score, part of the Zacks Style Scores, helps address this issue for us.
Below, we take a look at D.R. Horton (DHI), which currently has a Momentum Style Score of B. We also discuss some of the main drivers of the Momentum Style Score, like price change and earnings estimate revisions.
It's also important to note that Style Scores work as a complement to the Zacks Rank, our stock rating system that has an impressive track record of outperformance. D.R. Horton currently has a Zacks Rank of #1 (Strong Buy). Our research shows that stocks rated Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy) and #2 (Buy) and Style Scores of A or B outperform the market over the following one-month period.
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Set to Beat the Market?
Let's discuss some of the components of the Momentum Style Score for DHI that show why this homebuilder shows promise as a solid momentum pick.
A good momentum benchmark for a stock is to look at its short-term price activity, as this can reflect both current interest and if buyers or sellers currently have the upper hand. It's also helpful to compare a security to its industry; this can show investors the best companies in a particular area.
For DHI, shares are up 0.43% over the past week while the Zacks Building Products - Home Builders industry is up 0.79% over the same time period. Shares are looking quite well from a longer time frame too, as the monthly price change of 10.52% compares favorably with the industry's 8.72% performance as well.
While any stock can see a spike in price, it takes a real winner to consistently outperform the market. Shares of D.R. Horton have increased 15.06% over the past quarter, and have gained 58.46% in the last year. In comparison, the S&P 500 has only moved 1.24% and 6.64%, respectively.
Investors should also take note of DHI's average 20-day trading volume. Volume is a useful item in many ways, and the 20-day average establishes a good price-to-volume baseline; a rising stock with above average volume is generally a bullish sign, whereas a declining stock on above average volume is typically bearish. Right now, DHI is averaging 2,964,711 shares for the last 20 days.
The Zacks Momentum Style Score encompasses many things, including estimate revisions and a stock's price movement. Investors should note that earnings estimates are also significant to the Zacks Rank, and a nice path here can be promising. We have recently been noticing this with DHI.
Over the past two months, 16 earnings estimates moved higher compared to none lower for the full year. These revisions helped boost DHI's consensus estimate, increasing from $9.08 to $11.01 in the past 60 days. Looking at the next fiscal year, 14 estimates have moved upwards while there have been no downward revisions in the same time period.
Taking into account all of these elements, it should come as no surprise that DHI is a #1 (Strong Buy) stock with a Momentum Score of B. If you've been searching for a fresh pick that's set to rise in the near-term, make sure to keep D.R. Horton on your short list.
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