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Currency Markets Focus on ECB, BOE, Fed Commentary Into Week-End
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Talking Points:
FX Markets Eye ECB, BOE, Fed Commentary into Week-End
Commodity Dollars Drop Alongside Oil , Iron Ore Prices in Asia
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Central bank commentary is likely to overshadow a lackluster economic calendar through the end of the trading week. From the Bank of England, scheduled remarks from Governor Mark Carney, Chief Economist Andy Haldane and Deputy Governor Ben Broadbent are due to cross the wires. From the ECB, Bundesbank President Jens Weidmann is on tap. Finally, from the Federal Reserve, Vice Chair Stanley Fischer and Chair Janet Yellen are in the queue.
For the Fed and the BOE, the central question is that of timing for oncoming interest rate hikes. Both central banks have seen recent moderation in tightening expectations and traders will be keen to dissect their officials’ rhetoric to further inform speculation.
For the ECB, the issue of Greecewill probably take center stage considering its QE effort is effectively on auto-pilot for now. Athens faces a deadline to deliver a list of reforms meant to unlock bailout funds by Monday and the markets will want to hear the monetary authority’s position on what may happen thereafter, regardless of whether the plan is accepted or not by the Greece’s creditors.
The Australian, Canadian and New Zealand Dollars underperformed in overnight trade. The move tracked a pullback in crude oil and iron ore prices. While a discrete catalyst is not readily apparent, it is possible that traders reflexively defaulted to selling the so-called “commodity currencies” amid broad weakness in the raw materials space.
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Asia Session
GMT | CCY | EVENT | ACT | EXP | PREV |
23:30 | JPY | National CPI (YoY) (FEB) | 2.2% | 2.3% | 2.4% |
23:30 | JPY | National CPI Ex-Fresh Food (YoY) (FEB) | 2.0% | 2.1% | 2.2% |
23:30 | JPY | National CPI Ex Food, Energy (YoY) (FEB) | 2.0% | 2.1% | 2.1% |
23:30 | JPY | Jobless Rate (FEB) | 3.5% | 3.5% | 3.6% |
23:30 | JPY | Job-To-Applicant Ratio (FEB) | 1.15 | 1.15 | 1.14 |
23:30 | JPY | Household Spending (YoY) (FEB) | -2.9% | -3.2% | -5.1% |
23:30 | JPY | Tokyo CPI (YoY) | 2.3% | 2.3% | 2.3% |
23:30 | JPY | Tokyo CPI Ex-Fresh Food (YoY) | 2.2% | 2.2% | 2.2% |
23:30 | JPY | Tokyo CPI Ex Food, Energy (YoY) | 1.7% | 1.7% | 1.7% |
23:50 | JPY | Retail Trade s.a. (MoM) (FEB) | 0.7% | 0.9% | -1.9% |
23:50 | JPY | Retail Trade (YoY) (FEB) | -1.8% | -1.5% | -2.0% |
23:50 | JPY | Large Retailers' Sales (YoY) (FEB) | 1.3% | 0.7% | 0.0% |
European Session
GMT | CCY | EVENT | EXP | PREV | IMPACT |
7:00 | EUR | German Import Price Index (MoM) (FEB) | 0.5% | -0.8% | Low |
7:00 | EUR | German Import Price Index (YoY) (FEB) | -3.9% | -4.4% | Low |
7:00 | GBP | Nationwide House Px (MoM) (MAR) | 0.2% | -0.1% | Low |
7:00 | GBP | Nationwide House Px (YoY) (MAR) | 5.3% | 5.7% | Low |
8:00 | GBP | BOE's Haldane Speaks in Amsterdam | - | - | Medium |
8:00 | EUR | ECB's Weidmann Speaks in Frankfurt | - | - | Low |
8:45 | GBP | BOE's Carney Speaks in Frankfurt | - | - | Medium |
9:15 | GBP | BOE's Broadbent Speaks in London | - | - | Medium |
10:30 | USD | Fed's Fischer Speaks in Frankfurt | - | - | Medium |
Critical Levels
CCY | Supp 3 | Supp 2 | Supp 1 | Pivot Point | Res 1 | Res 2 | Res 3 |
EURUSD | 1.0541 | 1.0736 | 1.0810 | 1.0931 | 1.1005 | 1.1126 | 1.1321 |
GBPUSD | 1.4509 | 1.4696 | 1.4773 | 1.4883 | 1.4960 | 1.5070 | 1.5257 |
--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com
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